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000
FXUS65 KBOI 300944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST. THE MAIN ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE A
WEAK CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE MONTANA AND IDAHO BORDER MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT TODAY AND WILL AGAIN PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OREGON THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY AND OWYHEE COUNTY.

THE UPPER RIDGE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BUILD INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE FORECAST AREA UNDER EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES ON SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AIDING THE WARMING TREND FOR THE TREASURE
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DOMINATE ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DRAW SOME LIMITED MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
SPLITS...FORMING A LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK /NEAR 80F IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
ON WEDNESDAY/...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 03Z. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...NORTH 10-20 KNOTS BECOMING EAST AFTER 03Z.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL IDAHO AND ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AFTER 18Z...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
IN OWYHEE COUNTY WITH SOME SMALLER TRIBUTARIES LIKELY RUNNING
BANKFULL. DIURNAL PEAKS FOR THE EAST FORK OF THE JARBIDGE RIVER
AND THE EAST FORK OF THE BRUNEAU RIVER TRENDED UP AGAIN COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BRUNEAU RIVER AT HOT
SPRINGS RUNNING HIGH WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION A LITTLE MORE
THAN A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE
MAINSTEM OF THE BRUNEAU...BUT A GOOD HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACK
REMAINS IN THE UPPER BASIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP STREAMFLOWS HIGH.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
HYDROLOGY...TL



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000
FXUS65 KPIH 300836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENING. THE SECOND IS DEVELOPING AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA. THE THIRD ONE IS WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE AND PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE FIRST
AND THIRD ONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CONVERGENCE EVENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE STORM DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
THE WINDS WILL STAY MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WINDS MIGHT BE A TICK LOWER
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROUGH WATERS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
DAM. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REBOUND TO AROUND 8000FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS WE SEE A HIGH OVER
LOW PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE THERE FOR CLOUDS AND ANY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN
THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR TODAY...WE INCLUDED ISOLATED FOR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CASE THE MODELS SWITCH GEARS AGAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND ALSO A FEW
RIDGES IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT WE`LL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WARMING UP WITH A FEW 70S CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY. THE
OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SINCE WE
ARE HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON IF WINDS LET UP ENOUGH. KEYES

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED UPPER BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINING WEAK POCKETS OF MOISTURE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW UNDER DISORGANIZED UPPER FLOW TO PAINT PRECIP IN
ANY ONE PLACE. DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH CUT
OFF LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY USHERING IN
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER
THURSDAY. MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
SHIFTS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUT BOTH KEEP PRECIP SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS
18Z-02Z. SLOW DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. SURFACE
GRADIENT THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS NORTHEAST TODAY AND COULD BE
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KPIH/KIDA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 300836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENING. THE SECOND IS DEVELOPING AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA. THE THIRD ONE IS WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE AND PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE FIRST
AND THIRD ONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CONVERGENCE EVENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE STORM DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
THE WINDS WILL STAY MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WINDS MIGHT BE A TICK LOWER
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROUGH WATERS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
DAM. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REBOUND TO AROUND 8000FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS WE SEE A HIGH OVER
LOW PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE THERE FOR CLOUDS AND ANY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN
THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR TODAY...WE INCLUDED ISOLATED FOR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CASE THE MODELS SWITCH GEARS AGAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND ALSO A FEW
RIDGES IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT WE`LL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WARMING UP WITH A FEW 70S CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY. THE
OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SINCE WE
ARE HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON IF WINDS LET UP ENOUGH. KEYES

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED UPPER BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINING WEAK POCKETS OF MOISTURE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW UNDER DISORGANIZED UPPER FLOW TO PAINT PRECIP IN
ANY ONE PLACE. DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH CUT
OFF LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY USHERING IN
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER
THURSDAY. MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
SHIFTS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUT BOTH KEEP PRECIP SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS
18Z-02Z. SLOW DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. SURFACE
GRADIENT THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS NORTHEAST TODAY AND COULD BE
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KPIH/KIDA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300253
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
853 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...BOISE MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THOUGH MOST OF THESE WILL
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE FAR LESS ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. LOWERED
POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS TAPERING OFF
BY 30/06Z. MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EAST OF
A LINE KMYL-KMUO-KREO AFTER 30/18Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
CALM TO 12 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AFTER 30/18Z.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...NORTH AT 10-15 KTS...THEN AFTER 01/03Z
BECOMING EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO CONTINUE TO RUN
NEAR BANK FULL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BRUNEAU RIVER LOOKS LIKE
IT HAS CRESTED THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT 1 FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BASIN DID
RECEIVE ABOUT A 0.10 TO 0.20 OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY KEEP IT FROM RECEDING MUCH OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE BY SUNDAY AND NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SNOW MELT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE SITUATION IN CASE MORE
RAIN THAN IS EXPECTED OCCURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND EASTERN OREGON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF BAKER CITY OREGON AND MCCALL IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH EAST. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY IS CENTERED NEAR MISSOULA MONTANA BUT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN EASTERN OREGON AND
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH LESS WIND AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND COLORADO PLATEAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO COME ANY CLOSER THAN
THE NEVADA BORDER. ON WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW SITS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION. OREGON ZONES
WILL START SEEING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THURSDAY WITH A STEADY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY ALL ZONES WILL SEE MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....EP
HYDROLOGY...JDS/JB
PREV SHORT TERM...JB/MS
PREV LONG TERM....JT/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 292109
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
309 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND EASTERN OREGON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF BAKER CITY OREGON AND MCCALL IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH EAST. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN IDAHO THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY IS CENTERED NEAR MISSOULA MONTANA BUT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN EASTERN OREGON AND
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH LESS WIND AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND COLORADO PLATEAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO COME ANY CLOSER THAN
THE NEVADA BORDER. ON WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NEXT LOW SITS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION. OREGON ZONES
WILL START SEEING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THURSDAY WITH A STEADY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY ALL ZONES WILL SEE MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AFTER 06Z PRECIPITATION WILL END AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. SNOW
LEVELS 6K-7K FT MSL...LOWERING TO 5K-6K FT MSL AFTER 06Z...THEN
RISING ABOVE 7K FT MSL AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 10-20
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-20 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO CONTINUE TO RUN
NEAR BANK FULL. THE BRUNEAU RIVER LOOKS LIKE IT HAS CRESTED THIS
AFTERNOON ABOUT 1 FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE HEAD WATERS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE BY SUNDAY...SNOW MELT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE SITUATION
IN CASE MORE RAIN THAN IS EXPECTED OCCURS.

&&


.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...JB/MS
LONG TERM....JT/JC
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KPIH 292014
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...A SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN MONTANA BEGAN ROTATING INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN DOWN THROUGH MALAD. A NEW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IS ALSO ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDING
TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF HAILEY AND
SMALL HAIL COVERING THE ROAD SURFACE NEAR MORELAND. THIS NEW
TROUGH DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT MOVES QUICKLY INTO
NEVADA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS TRACK THIS LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO ARIZONA ON SATURDAY SO WE GET ANOTHER DOES OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD IN THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK OF THE LOW RESULTS IN DRIER AIR OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BUILDS A SHARP RIDGE OVER
THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE AND INTO CANADA. BY MONDAY...NEW TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUPPORTS SOME SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND THAT WILL HELP BOOST OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
EUROPEAN HAS UPPER LOW IN PLACE WITH MUCH WETTER SOLUTION DROPPING
THE LOW SOUTHWEST FROM NORTH DAKOTA ONTO IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER BY
TUESDAY.   SO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY VERY WET ESPECIALLY IN
EAST.  GFS HAS NOTHING CLOSE TO THAT SOLUTION WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR NOW KEPT WITH VERY LOW POP SOLUTION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES MAINLY IN
MOUNTAINS.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KICKS IN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH BOTH MODELS AGREEING ON UPPER LOW MOVING TO SOUTH
FRIDAY.   INCREASES POPS AND HAVE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH THAT
SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  COULD ALSO
SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN SHOWERS.  SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT A BIT WITH SATURDAY A REPEAT WITH MORE SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AT OR NEAR ALL TAF SITES.
WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT OTHER THAN OUTFLOW NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
AND EASTERN OREGON. RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON...AND IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED
IN MCCALL...DONNELLY AND CASCADE EARLY THIS MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
AND INTO THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
BEING DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
ABOVE 6000 FEET...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE
AFTER 06Z. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS NEAR 10
KFT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IDAHO ON SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW NEAR MISSOULA/MT THIS MORNING WILL BE
BRIEFLY JOINED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN TURN SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THESE LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...
THEN ENDING SATURDAY EXCEPT IN ERN-MOST AND NRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE BASIN...
THEN INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALMOST TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS LOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOWS NEARBY
..THEN 5 TO 8 DEGS HIGHER AGAIN SATURDAY AS THEY MOVE AWAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MEANDER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SUCCUMBING TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MID WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS BRING THE WEST COAST TROUGH INLAND TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BUT WILL BE TRENDING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TL




000
FXUS65 KBOI 291530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
AND EASTERN OREGON. RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON...AND IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED
IN MCCALL...DONNELLY AND CASCADE EARLY THIS MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
AND INTO THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
BEING DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
ABOVE 6000 FEET...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION AND AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE
AFTER 06Z. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS NEAR 10
KFT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY
FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IDAHO ON SATURDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW NEAR MISSOULA/MT THIS MORNING WILL BE
BRIEFLY JOINED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN TURN SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THESE LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...
THEN ENDING SATURDAY EXCEPT IN ERN-MOST AND NRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE BASIN...
THEN INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALMOST TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS LOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOWS NEARBY
..THEN 5 TO 8 DEGS HIGHER AGAIN SATURDAY AS THEY MOVE AWAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MEANDER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SUCCUMBING TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MID WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS BRING THE WEST COAST TROUGH INLAND TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BUT WILL BE TRENDING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TL




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290929 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW NEAR MISSOULA/MT THIS MORNING WILL BE
BRIEFLY JOINED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN TURN SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THESE LOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...
THEN ENDING SATURDAY EXCEPT IN ERN-MOST AND NRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES.  WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE BASIN...
THEN INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALMOST TO ADVISORY SPEEDS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS LOWER TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOWS NEARBY
...THEN 5 TO 8 DEGS HIGHER AGAIN SATURDAY AS THEY MOVE AWAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MEANDER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SUCCUMBING TO AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE IDAHO SIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
SO KEPT LOW POPS THERE. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA MID WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS BRING THE WEST COAST TROUGH INLAND TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO
BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BUT WILL BE TRENDING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE REGION AFTER 29/18Z WITH MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
WEST/NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10 KFT MSL...NORTHWEST
10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TL
AVIATION.....TL




000
FXUS65 KPIH 290912
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WE HAVE A WELL DEFINED LOW THIS
MORNING SITTING RIGHT OVER LOST TRAIL PASS AND SOUTHERN RAVALLI
COUNTY IN MONTANA. WE HAVE THE LOW OVER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
ALONG WITH A 3RD STORM PUSHING INTO THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING.
THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW OVER
MONTANA WEAKENS AS THE STORM MOVING INTO OREGON DROPS INTO
NEVADA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT STORM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 7500-8000FT THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MONTANA STORM IS ENOUGH
TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE FIRST
STORM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE STREAMS BACK WEST AROUND
IT AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL FORM WITH A CONVERGENCE
EVENT ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY. AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
STRENGTHENS...WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY WHERE WE HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH DRIER BUT
STILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRIEST WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WETTER. DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT MID AND UPPER
ELEVATIONS BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS. JUST
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A REMINDER IT STILL SNOWS IN SPRING AROUND
HERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT
A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NORTHERN/CANADIAN
ROCKIES. DRY AND WARMING TREND IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND SHIFTS AXIS EAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIP PUSH INTO IDAHO BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DO FINALLY
LOSE AGREEMENT BY THIS POINT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION OF
LOW CUTTING OFF IN BASE OF TROUGH. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING KSUN. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290546 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON
AROUND 23Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AROUND 02Z. ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO POPS AND WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 29/18Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10 KFT MSL...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IN WESTERN
MONTANA KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZING NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE EVENING. FRIDAY
THE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SPREADING INTO IDAHO IN THE EVENING. YET AGAIN...THIS TROUGH
SPLITS OFF AND MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
NEAR NEVADA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. BREEZY WINDS AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK
NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TO ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE TROUGH WILL DIG.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REGIONS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  WILL KEEP
THE POPS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  THINKING THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH MORE IN ALIGNMENT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO PUSH IN AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OREGON. A
STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES TO OUR
SOUTH...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290247
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROUND
BY 23Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AROUND 02Z. ONLY MINOR UPDATES
TO POPS AND WINDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 29/18Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST/NORTHWEST 15 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10 KFT MSL...NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IN WESTERN
MONTANA KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZING NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE EVENING. FRIDAY
THE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SPREADING INTO IDAHO IN THE EVENING. YET AGAIN...THIS TROUGH
SPLITS OFF AND MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
NEAR NEVADA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. BREEZY WINDS AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK
NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TO ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE TROUGH WILL DIG.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REGIONS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  WILL KEEP
THE POPS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  THINKING THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH MORE IN ALIGNMENT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO PUSH IN AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OREGON. A
STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES TO OUR
SOUTH...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC




000
FXUS65 KPIH 290057
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
657 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR.
REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE AND
ERN HIGHLANDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE RICHFIELD
AREA WHICH WAS COVERED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE DIRECTION OF
STANLEY...SUN VALLEY AND RICHFIELD. SATELLITE DERIVED LIFTED INDICES
ALSO SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME
DESTABILIZATION IN THE MALAD AND SODA SPRINGS AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN SOUTHERN UTAH APPEAR
TO BE ROTATING A LITTLE SHORT OF IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR BOTH
CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO. THERE IS A NEW
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WASHINGTON/OREGON THAT WILL MOVE INLAND
FRIDAY AND DROP SHARPLY SOUTH TO NEVADA. THIS RENEWS THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW LEVELS EARLY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET...RISING TO ABOUT 7500 FEET
ELEVATION BY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORECAST
REMAINS UNSETTLED SATURDAY AS WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OFF THE LOW THAT
WAS IN SOUTHERN UTAH SLIP BACK INTO IDAHO. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH WARRANT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. SUNDAY...STILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS THE LATEST LOW
MOVES TOWARDS COLORADO. OVERALL SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIER DAY OF
THE TWO FOR THIS WEEKEND. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TREND ON BOTH GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS IS FOR FLOW TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER UPPER
LOW TO SOUTH WEAKENS AND A MUCH WARMER REGIME TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.  KEPT IN LOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.   CONVECTION HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED BUT STILL THINK BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND KEPT VCTS AT SUN AND BYI THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED VCTS THEN AS WELL.   NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IN WESTERN
MONTANA KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZING NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE EVENING. FRIDAY
THE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SPREADING INTO IDAHO IN THE EVENING. YET AGAIN...THIS TROUGH
SPLITS OFF AND MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
NEAR NEVADA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. BREEZY WINDS AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK
NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TO ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE TROUGH WILL DIG.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REGIONS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  WILL KEEP
THE POPS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  THINKING THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH MORE IN ALIGNMENT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO PUSH IN AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OREGON. A
STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES TO OUR
SOUTH...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR BUT COULD SEE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 282008
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
208 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE
DIRECTION OF STANLEY...SUN VALLEY AND RICHFIELD. SATELLITE DERIVED
LIFTED INDICES ALSO SHOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA. THERE
IS ALSO SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE MALAD AND SODA SPRINGS AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN SOUTHERN UTAH APPEAR
TO BE ROTATING A LITTLE SHORT OF IDAHO. THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR BOTH
CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO. THERE IS A NEW
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WASHINGTON/OREGON THAT WILL MOVE INLAND
FRIDAY AND DROP SHARPLY SOUTH TO NEVADA. THIS RENEWS THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW LEVELS EARLY
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET...RISING TO ABOUT 7500 FEET
ELEVATION BY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET. FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORECAST
REMAINS UNSETTLED SATURDAY AS WRAP AROUND SHOWERS OFF THE LOW THAT
WAS IN SOUTHERN UTAH SLIP BACK INTO IDAHO. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH WARRANT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. SUNDAY...STILL HAVE
ISOLATED SHOWERS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS THE LATEST LOW
MOVES TOWARDS COLORADO. OVERALL SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIER DAY OF
THE TWO FOR THIS WEEKEND. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TREND ON BOTH GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS IS FOR FLOW TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER UPPER
LOW TO SOUTH WEAKENS AND A MUCH WARMER REGIME TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.  KEPT IN LOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.   CONVECTION HAS
NOT YET DEVELOPED BUT STILL THINK BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND KEPT VCTS AT SUN AND BYI THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY NEED VCTS THEN AS WELL.   NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281552
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
952 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN NEVADA IS GETTING FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT
SHOWERS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TODAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA MOVING WEST WILL
BRING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO PRETTY
BREEZY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE MONTANA LOW INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT WELL HANDLED.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER LOW FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH
IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL IN CURRENT FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE BAKER
VALLEY AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FROM KONO-KMUO. WINDS ALOFT
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...POORLY DEFINED UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY IN OUR CWA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.  LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN UTAH TONIGHT
AND SRN COLORADO FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE COAST TO
COME INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRYING.  AN UPPER LOW FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL COME IN QUICKLY FRIDAY INCREASING POPS AGAIN FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2-4 DEGS COOLER
THAN TODAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE.  GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS LATER
TODAY DUE TO MODERATE NW-SE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  LESS WINDY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT BREEZY/WINDY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE NW-SE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 6000FT MSL ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STALLS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND WEAKENS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT/ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...TB
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281552
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
952 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW IN NEVADA IS GETTING FAR ENOUGH AWAY THAT
SHOWERS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TODAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES IN THAT
AREA. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA MOVING WEST WILL
BRING A REASONABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. ALSO PRETTY
BREEZY AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE MONTANA LOW INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS THAT WELL HANDLED.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER LOW FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL CROSS THE AREA BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH
IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL IN CURRENT FORECASTS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 5-15
KNOTS...EXCEPT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE BAKER
VALLEY AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FROM KONO-KMUO. WINDS ALOFT
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...POORLY DEFINED UPPER LOW IN NEVADA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY IN OUR CWA MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.  LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SRN UTAH TONIGHT
AND SRN COLORADO FRIDAY ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE ALONG THE COAST TO
COME INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME DRYING.  AN UPPER LOW FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL COME IN QUICKLY FRIDAY INCREASING POPS AGAIN FROM
NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 2-4 DEGS COOLER
THAN TODAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE.  GUSTY WEST/NW WINDS LATER
TODAY DUE TO MODERATE NW-SE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  LESS WINDY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT BREEZY/WINDY AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE NW-SE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 6000FT MSL ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND STALLS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CANADA AND WEAKENS THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT/ WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

DISCUSSION...TB
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 281342
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
742 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN...THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
FROM MONTANA TO ARIZONA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
FOR NOT ONLY TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...TODAY IS THE LOWEST PROBABILITY DAY...AND MORE LIKE
ISOLATED CONDITIONS RATHER THAN SCATTERED. BUT A NEW LOW WITH MORE
MOISTURE SLIDES IN FROM WA-OR AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON FRI/FRI EVE. ON
SAT...THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...AND MAINLY THE HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS ARE
UNDER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT SOME LEVEL FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT.
ALL THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD FOR FRI AND SAT
NIGHT...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. ONCE AGAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ONLY
DEVELOP ABOVE 7000 FEET...IF AT ALL...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. FOR FRI NIGHT...IT LOWERS TO 6000 FEET
ELEVATION...BUT QUICKLY SOARS TO 8000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO
A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SECOND LOW. WITH
THE PRESSURE PATTERN TODAY...NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND THIS
MEANS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR IS
NECESSARY FOR NEARLY ALL DAY TODAY DUE TO A LOW THRESHOLD OF 10KT.
MESSICK

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECWMF REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING LOW OVER GREAT BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
IN FAVOR OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVIDENCE FOR WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS. THUS LEFT WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRY FORECAST FOR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHIFT THE
DEEP PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...REINTRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OVER EAST IDAHO BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DMH

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALL TERMINAL
SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
EARLY AT KSUN...EXTENDING INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE EVENING.
BELIEVE KPIH/KIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WILL LIKELY LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THOSE TERMINALS TODAY. NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
TODAY...AND IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT WINDS
ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 20KTS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$




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