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000
FXUS65 KBOI 240855
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHOWERS IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND PATCHY FOG IN
OUR NRN VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW IN UTAH WILL
MOVE TO WYOMING TODAY...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN IDAHO ZONES.  INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS...AS IT WAS SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REST OF
WESTERN IDAHO AND MALHEUR AND BAKER COUNTIES IN OREGON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY SUNSET AND ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  ON MONDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LOW FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO
WASHINGTON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY
THEN 1-3 DEGS WARMER MONDAY.  MILD AND MOIST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S /AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...NORTHERLY 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATIION....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240855
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHOWERS IN OWYHEE COUNTY AND PATCHY FOG IN
OUR NRN VALLEYS THIS MORNING.  YESTERDAY/S UPPER LOW IN UTAH WILL
MOVE TO WYOMING TODAY...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN IDAHO ZONES.  INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS...AS IT WAS SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THERE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REST OF
WESTERN IDAHO AND MALHEUR AND BAKER COUNTIES IN OREGON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY SUNSET AND ALL AREAS SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT
AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  ON MONDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LOW FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE TO
WASHINGTON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY
THEN 1-3 DEGS WARMER MONDAY.  MILD AND MOIST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND
AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S /AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/ IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...NORTHERLY 5-15KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATIION....KA


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 240840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AREA STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW LIFTING
THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT THAT INFLUENCE IS WANING AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER AWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PATCHY
FOG SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MID-MORNING. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY...BUT WE WILL STILL SEE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS SHOWING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR MONDAY DESPITE RIDGING INDUCED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. NAM
DEVELOPS MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOWLY PROGRESS THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE
NIGHTTIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SIGNALING RIDGING TO RETURN TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS PRODUCING POCKETS OF
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AT EACH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEARING TO
MVFR/VFR BY MID MORNING THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND WOULD EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO BE A POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE AGAIN WITH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY LEAN
TOWARD THAT DIRECTION WITH 12Z TERMINAL ISSUANCE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EAST IDAHO FIRE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY THIS WEEK...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DRIER WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 240840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...AREA STILL BEING INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW LIFTING
THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING...BUT THAT INFLUENCE IS WANING AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER AWAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PATCHY
FOG SEEN ON AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MID-MORNING. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY...BUT WE WILL STILL SEE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS IS SHOWING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR MONDAY DESPITE RIDGING INDUCED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. NAM
DEVELOPS MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOWLY PROGRESS THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE
NIGHTTIME. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SIGNALING RIDGING TO RETURN TO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS PRODUCING POCKETS OF
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AT EACH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEARING TO
MVFR/VFR BY MID MORNING THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE AND
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLEARING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND WOULD EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO BE A POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE AGAIN WITH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LIKELY LEAN
TOWARD THAT DIRECTION WITH 12Z TERMINAL ISSUANCE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EAST IDAHO FIRE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND
UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY THIS WEEK...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DRIER WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 240306
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECASTS ANTICIPATED.

MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE`VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 240306
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECASTS ANTICIPATED.

MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE`VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 240306
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECASTS ANTICIPATED.

MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE`VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 240306
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
UPDATES TO CURRENT FORECASTS ANTICIPATED.

MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE`VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 240259
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FORECAST TO SLOW THE EXIT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER IN IDAHO UNTIL 9Z/3AM MDT...AND KEEP
ISOLATED RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH 6 AM MDT.
IDAHO TO MALHEUR COUNTY WAS ON THE NW FLANK OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS STILL MOIST AND
STEERING WINDS FROM THE NORTH WERE LIGHT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN /ARROWROCK DAM PICKED UP
OVER AN INCH/ AND HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER /OBSERVED
IN PARTS OF SE BOISE/. NEAR SUNSET VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL
OVERSHOOTING TOPS INCLUDING NEAR THE BOISE AIRPORT WHERE LIGHTNING
WAS NOT UNCOMMON LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 3 AM MDT...THEN BE REINVIGORATED SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
DROPS OVER THE PACNW/IDAHO FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION....UNTIL 09Z NUMEROUS LOCALLY MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AFTER 09Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED FROM THE BOISE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232041
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR IDAHO ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
BE POORLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST MODELS. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
FORMED IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS LINE STRETCHED FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF BOISE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY AND ON INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS OF
230 PM MDT. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SPREADING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MOST OF
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE
SHORT WAVE...AS DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MEANING THE
THERE IS STILL AMPLE INSTABILITY BEHIND THE WAVE AND IT WILL NOT
SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER ERN OREGON EVEN THOUGH IT IS
NOT IN THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS STORM MOTION IS ONLY 10-15 MPH. WE WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW...THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE IDAHO ZONES...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO SE OREGON. WE ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO WASHINGTON FROM THE NW. SHEAR WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS
THIS WAVE APPROACHES... LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT OWING TO ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL GUST NEAR STORMS AS ALWAYS...BUT WILL
OTHERWISE BE UNEVENTFUL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY BUT IS
LARGELY SUPPRESSED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IT SHOULD BE DRIER BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS
TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHEAST 15-
25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KPIH 231900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO
EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND MAINLY BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONTAINED TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCE...THE GFS HAS MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION THAN THE NAM. AT THIS TIME...FAVOR THE GFS WHICH SEEMS
MORE CONSISTENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THE PATTERN
WILL BE A BIT DIFFERENT THOUGH AS THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. FOR TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION. ALL OF THEM HOLD THE LOW ACROSS THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE/EASTERN WASHINGTON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS DIFFERENT. THE NAM AND TO SOME EXTENT
PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST COMPARED TO THE GFS. IT WILL STILL BE STORMY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT STORM WILL INCH EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WHAT THAT MEANS IS...MORE RAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
EASTERN IDAHO. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR WORKING UP
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THAT COULD DRY OUT THOSE AREAS A BIT...BUT WITH ALL
THIS MOISTURE AROUND FROM RECENT RAINY DAYS THE EXTRA SUN COULD FUEL
STRONGER STORMS ALSO. WE DID REDUCE THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST BUT
THAT MIGHT NOT END UP BEING A SWING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL THAT
SPELL AN END TO ALL OF THIS RAIN? LIKELY NOT A COMPLETE END AS THE
MODELS STILL SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP. IT MAY END UP
STORMY...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
LINGERS AROUND KIDA AND KPIH. ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME HEATING
THAT IS FUELING REDEVELOPMENT. ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE -SHRA VCTS IN
THE TAF UNTIL SUNSET. WE ARE LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TRY AND DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY. WE KEPT VCSH GOING...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXPAND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE`VE SEE SOME LINGER MVFR
CEILINGS WHERE WE HAD GOOD RAIN THIS MORNING. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AGAIN TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY AIRPORTS THAT MIGHT SEE IT
WOULD BE KIDA AND KPIH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 231557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS AND TREASURE VALLEY WILL ADVECT INTO SW HIGHLANDS...OWYHEES
AND FAR WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD
HEATING...WHICH IT TURN WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY AND MAKE THESE
AREAS THE MOST LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPDATE FOR
CHANGES TO QPF... SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS OUT SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BEFORE 18Z BECOMING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON. THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY. TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. GFS
STABILITY CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS
SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE
IDAHO/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN
UTAH. YESTERDAY/S MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY AND ERN OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY. DRIER
AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3
DEGS WARMER SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEYS. MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE BASIN
AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY. LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 231557
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS AND TREASURE VALLEY WILL ADVECT INTO SW HIGHLANDS...OWYHEES
AND FAR WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD
HEATING...WHICH IT TURN WILL MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY AND MAKE THESE
AREAS THE MOST LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPDATE FOR
CHANGES TO QPF... SKY...AND WEATHER GRIDS OUT SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BEFORE 18Z BECOMING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON. THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY. TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE. GFS
STABILITY CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS
SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE
IDAHO/NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN
UTAH. YESTERDAY/S MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN
FALLS COUNTY AND ERN OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY. DRIER
AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3
DEGS WARMER SUNDAY. MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEYS. MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE BASIN
AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY. LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230935
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.  THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY.  TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  GFS STABILITY
CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS SHOWS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN UTAH.  YESTERDAY/S
MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.  WE WILL
AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER SUNDAY.  MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY.  LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AT KBKE AND KMYL THRU
14Z/SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230935
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
335 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...YESTERDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE WX WERE
IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO AND THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.  THERE
WAS LOCAL FLOODING FRIDAY EVENING NEAR MCCALL AND DONNELLY.  TODAY
THE ACTION WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  GFS STABILITY
CHARTS HAVE VERIFIED BETTER THAN NAM RECENTLY...AND GFS SHOWS
GREATEST INSTABILITY TODAY IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  BUT GREATEST QPF WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO/NV BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY IN UTAH.  YESTERDAY/S
MODELS SHOWED THAT TOO.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND ERN
OWYHEE COUNTY...WHEREAS IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN.  WE WILL
AGAIN LET THE DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THOSE NRN MOUNTAINS TODAY.  MEANWHILE...OREGON ZONES WILL HAVE
RELATIVELY LESS WX TODAY.  DRIER AIR WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS
TODAY...THEN ABOUT 3 DEGS WARMER SUNDAY.  MILD AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  MODERATE WEST TO EAST SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND ALSO NEAR BAKER COUNTY/OR TODAY.  LESS WINDY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE 80S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TRANSITIONING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AT KBKE AND KMYL THRU
14Z/SAT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AFTER 18Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY
10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 30KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NE 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 230836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM WYOMING.
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IDAHO FALLS. NAM
AND HRRR SUGGEST FURTHER RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER PRETTY HEAVILY WITH RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO COLORADO TONIGHT
AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE MAY
FINALLY SEE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING...A
TREND MORE FAVORED BY THE NAM THAN THE GFS...AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS A
WETTER PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY
NIGHT. NAM PRODUCES AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE WITH TO SHOW A RETURN TO WET
WEATHER WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING MAY FINALLY TAKE HOLD AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORKING THROUGH EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS COULD DRY
OUT EARLY BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TOWARD
SUNRISE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
KEEP EAST IDAHO UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED HEAVY RAIN WITH MCCALL
AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.65 INCHES AS OF 8 PM. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY LED TO
SPOTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH FAR WESTERN VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES. AS OF 845 PM LIGHTNING SHOWED STORMS CROSSING THE SNAKE
RIVER FROM WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY TOWARDS THE WALLOWAS. OTHER STORMS
HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED...INCLUDING CENTERVILLE... YELLOWPINE
AND SW TWIN FALLS. AS OF 845 PM THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY NEAR OWYHEE DAM WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WERE LIKELY OCCURRING. STORMS WERE ALSO ACROSS...FAR
SW OWYHEE COUNTY NEAR DUCK VALLEY AND NW OF FAIRFIELD. STORM
MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SW AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SO FAR NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE NWS BUT HAVE
SENT OUT LSRBOI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT
AND REFORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ON SATURDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 230254
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DELIVERED HEAVY RAIN WITH MCCALL
AIRPORT RECEIVING 0.65 INCHES AS OF 8 PM. HEAVY RAIN LIKELY LED TO
SPOTS OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH FAR WESTERN VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES. AS OF 845 PM LIGHTNING SHOWED STORMS CROSSING THE SNAKE
RIVER FROM WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY TOWARDS THE WALLOWAS. OTHER STORMS
HAD PEA-SIZE HAIL REPORTED...INCLUDING CENTERVILLE... YELLOWPINE
AND SW TWIN FALLS. AS OF 845 PM THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY NEAR OWYHEE DAM WHERE HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WERE LIKELY OCCURRING. STORMS WERE ALSO ACROSS...FAR
SW OWYHEE COUNTY NEAR DUCK VALLEY AND NW OF FAIRFIELD. STORM
MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SW AT 10 MPH OR LESS.
SO FAR NO DAMAGE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE NWS BUT HAVE
SENT OUT LSRBOI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT
AND REFORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND IN CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 06Z...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS TO 25 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 10-15 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ON SATURDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....TL/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL



000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE RADAR STORM
SIGNATURES ARE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS AS
YET SINCE THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING MOSTLY IN REMOTE AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE /MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/ THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL TRACK E-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN SW IDAHO. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE 11Z-14Z SATURDAY INCLUDING KMYL AND KBKE AREAS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AT 10K FEET MSL NORTHERLY UP TO 15KT.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN
SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS NORTHWEST 10-20KT SATURDAY...THEN NW
GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT NORTHERLY
15 TO 25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....TL/WH
AVIATION.....TL




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221542
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
942 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL RESIDE BETWEEN A PAIR OF
UPPER LOWS TODAY...ONE TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER TO OUR NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN /MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE/...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS KTWF AND KJER
AREA...AS WELL AS KBNO KREO AND KONO AREAS WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS...ISOLATED
MVFR IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT
BECOMING N 10-20KT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....TL
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220927
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
WRN COLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY.  NEXT UPPER LOW IN THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TODAY WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL OREGON BY LATE SATURDAY.
BEST DYNAMICS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAREST TO THOSE LOWS.
BUT BEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN OUR NRN ZONES
IN IDAHO AND IN ERN OREGON.  ON SATURDAY THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  UPPER WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY AS
THEY DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WE WILL
LET DAY CREW DECIDE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE TODAY OR SATURDAY FROM YESTERDAY...EXCEPT
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AROUND.  TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE MILD AND MOIST WITH
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE NRN VALLEYS.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z/FRI. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12KT OR
LESS...GUSTS UP TO 25KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...VARIABLE 5-10KT BECOMING NE 10-20KT BY 18Z/FRI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



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