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000
FXUS65 KBOI 162020
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
220 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING/S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NEARLY EXITED
OUR CWA TO THE NORTHEAST BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IN ERN VALLEY COUNTY/ID.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S WITH HOT WX AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.  RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST
WILL COME ONSHORE.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OREGON ZONES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FRONT WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTRAIN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
DISSIPATING HURRICANE ODILE IN ARIZ AND MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL IN OUR
ERN-MOST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  SPLITTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AND DECREASING
POPS IN OUR ZONES.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ERN-MOST
MOUNTAIN ZONES IN IDAHO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE SLOW TO EXIT FAR S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED ACROSS THE VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL /FOLD OVER
TYPE/ RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  THEN THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10 DEGREEES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 5-10
DEGREEES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

$$

.AVIATION...VFR SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 15K FT MSL NORTHEAST OF BOISE
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MOVING IN FROM OREGON AROUND 06Z REACHING
IDAHO 09-12Z. CLEAR PERIOD WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH HUMIDITY
FOR FOG DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS DRYING OUT THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BUT WITH RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG/
STRATUS CAN/T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT.  SMOKE LAYERS MAY REDEVELOP
FROM UPWIND FIRES ACROSS NORTHEN CALIFORNIA AND SWRN OREGON. WINDS
...FROM THE SW 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON UNTIL 06Z AND AGAIN
AFTER 18Z..OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS UP TO 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST
UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....VM/AB
AVIATION.....VM


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000
FXUS65 KPIH 161955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ERN
IDAHO. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WERE
VISIBLE ROTATING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GFS/NAM WERE BOTH SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND ROTATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE. A FEW CELLS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS
WERE MUCH LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOME AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. ONE WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM WERE SHOWING JUST ISOLATED ILL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN OREGON/NORTH IDAHO WITH
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL
IDAHO WHICH EXPANDS EWRD DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH
ADVANCES INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PROMOTE ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER ANY MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE TRACKING FURTHER EAST OF PREVIOUS PROGS...I AM
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...A DEFINITIVE SPLIT OCCURS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH PUSHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN HIGH-LINE WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SPINS OFF
A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CALIFORNIA (A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAYS PROGS). THE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MODELS AND EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND
TRACK OF THE CUT-OFF LOW FLOUNDERING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY
AND NRN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CLIPPING
THE FAR SE HIGHLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND...RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT REMAINS UNTIL BEING SWEPT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
INTO NRN NEVADA TUESDAY. WITH POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE GFS
TIMING/TRACK. WILL AWAIT BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS BEFORE
TRYING TO NAIL DOWN ANY CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SHOWERS MORE ACTIVE FOR PIH AND IDA...BUT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODELS INFLUENCED FORECAST AS THEY SUGGEST EARLIER END OF
PRECIP OVER IDA VERSUS THE 12Z NAM. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CHANNELS MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PEAKS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FOCUS BEING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 161955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ERN
IDAHO. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WERE
VISIBLE ROTATING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GFS/NAM WERE BOTH SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND ROTATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE. A FEW CELLS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS
WERE MUCH LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOME AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. ONE WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM WERE SHOWING JUST ISOLATED ILL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN OREGON/NORTH IDAHO WITH
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL
IDAHO WHICH EXPANDS EWRD DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH
ADVANCES INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PROMOTE ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER ANY MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE TRACKING FURTHER EAST OF PREVIOUS PROGS...I AM
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...A DEFINITIVE SPLIT OCCURS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH PUSHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN HIGH-LINE WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SPINS OFF
A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CALIFORNIA (A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAYS PROGS). THE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MODELS AND EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND
TRACK OF THE CUT-OFF LOW FLOUNDERING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY
AND NRN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CLIPPING
THE FAR SE HIGHLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND...RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT REMAINS UNTIL BEING SWEPT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
INTO NRN NEVADA TUESDAY. WITH POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE GFS
TIMING/TRACK. WILL AWAIT BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS BEFORE
TRYING TO NAIL DOWN ANY CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SHOWERS MORE ACTIVE FOR PIH AND IDA...BUT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODELS INFLUENCED FORECAST AS THEY SUGGEST EARLIER END OF
PRECIP OVER IDA VERSUS THE 12Z NAM. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CHANNELS MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PEAKS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FOCUS BEING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 161520
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN MALHEUR COUNTY AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY BUT
HAVE NEARLY ENDED...THE ONLY REMAINING LIGHTNING AT 9 AM MDT
WAS IN VALLEY AND BOISE COUNTIES IN IDAHO...MOVING NORTHEAST.
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER OUR
AREA WILL BRING CLEARING AND HOT WEATHER AGAIN DAY TODAY AND
ALSO ON WEDNESDAY.  OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ABOUT TEN DEGS COOLING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.  THE FRONT MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE
WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY GET ENTRAINED.  CURRENT
FORECAST DESCRIBES TRENDS WELL...NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING THEN WIDESPREAD VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC 12-15K MSL EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KREO. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MTNS OBSCD CIGS
BKN 040 AGL MAINLY EAST OF IDAHO CITY UNTIL 18Z. DECREASING CLOUDS
AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SHIFTS EAST OF IDAHO CITY BY 21Z. SMOKE
LAYERS MAY PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KPIH 161505
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 161505
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 160942
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
342 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON THIS MORNING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE IS QUICKLY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES AT BOISE WILL
BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH OF 93F. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION AND
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
REACH BOISE SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3AM THURSDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL CA INTO SOUTHERN NV THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PUSHING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN ID. CONTINUED GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH TOPS OUT 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WARM AND DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A KBKE-KONO-
KREO LINE...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS EXCEPT SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON SW 5-15KT EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FEET MSL...SW 15-25KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 160845
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
245 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 160845
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
245 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KBOI 160229
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED
IN AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE BOISE AREA TO
THE WEST. ALSO...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SINCE
WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING...MEANING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
AND MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE UPPER WEISER
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON. NEAR RECORD HIGH OF 92F
/RECORD IS 93F/ IN BOISE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST
WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN MALHEUR
COUNTY. FOR NOW...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...AND AFTER 18Z OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY AND OVER THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH
OF KTWF. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....LC/LC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 160229
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED
IN AN OTHERWISE MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. LATEST
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE BOISE AREA TO
THE WEST. ALSO...EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT SINCE
WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING...MEANING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
AND MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE UPPER WEISER
AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRIER STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON. NEAR RECORD HIGH OF 92F
/RECORD IS 93F/ IN BOISE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST
WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION IN MALHEUR
COUNTY. FOR NOW...NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOCAL
SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...AND AFTER 18Z OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY AND OVER THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH
OF KTWF. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....LC/LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 152038
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
238 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCOMING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO S CENTRAL OREGON AS
WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED CU TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
IDAHO. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR WAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NV. COMPARING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING...SE
OREGON IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN NV FOR THUNDER...DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE
LESS THAN 100 J/KG ACROSS SE OREGON /LKV-BNO/ VERSUS AROUND
200 J/KG AT ELKO. ALSO A /50-200/ CAP WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OREGON.
SO WILL KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST AND TREND TO ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS WELL N AND
W OF BOISE.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AS TUESDAY
PROGRESSES...LEAVING SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO IN MILD
LOCALLY BREEZY SW FLOW. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EAST DOWNSLOPE
WINDS FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS AT BOISE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SE TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO TO THE FAR NW MAGIC VALLEY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL IDAHO
WARRANTS LOW POPS THERE LATE TUESDAY AND MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO
LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT COME IN FOR THE
EARLY LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT COMES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SRN
PORTION WILL FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW IN CALIF WHILE NRN PORTION
SHEARS OFF INTO MONTANA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPS 5-10F FOR THU AND FRI BUT EVEN
THEN REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. FROPA WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IDAHO
ZONES MAINLY THURSDAY AS A SMALL PART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL BE DRAWN NWD FROM ARIZ. NEXT PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE WILL
COME IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND...MIN
TEMPS WARMING MORE SLOWLY THAN MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF KBNO-KRE0-
KTWF.  CLOUDS INCREASING IN OREGON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO BROKEN-
OVERCAST WITH BASES 12-15K FEET AFTER 00Z...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/
-TSRA WEST OF KONO-KREO. ALSO SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
5-15 KTS IN OREGON...LIGHT EASTERLY IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-25 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....LC/LC
AVIATION.....LC




000
FXUS65 KPIH 151955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER EAST...THE GREAT BASIN REMAINED UNDER A MODEST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WELL TO OUR SOUTH...HURRICANE ODILE WAS CLEARLY VISIBLE
MARCHING NORTH ACROSS BAJA. THE MODELS FAVOR LIFTING AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SECOND WAVE SPINS UP OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OPENING THE DOOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY OVER
THE CNTRL AND SE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO ARIZONA LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WELL SOUTH OF IDAHO WHILE THE UPSTREAM LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO SWING INLAND AND SPLIT. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME MODEST DYNAMICS EVEN WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND AT THIS POINT IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT SLIPS FURTHER EAST INTO NEW MEXICO
AND WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A LIKELY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE UNTIL
WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ODILE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH TO THE SPLIT TROUGH WHILE
THE SRN EXTENT SPUN OFF INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/SE UTAH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH NO IMPACT ON SE IDAHO WHEREAS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ONLY TO BE SWEPT INLAND BY YET ANOTHER INCOMING
TROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAS MAINTAINED ANY
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS
IS POOR. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WA/OR LATE TONIGHT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THUS WILL SEE
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK. A STRONGER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INLAND ON THURSDAY AND MAY TAP INTO SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND DRIVE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT TO SEE
DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOW
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO
VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-OFF
LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 151611 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1011 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS MAINLY OVER
OREGON ALONG WITH POCKETS OF THIN LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LAYER
CAP/ LOOKS TO BE FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NEAR NW CA/SW
OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ONLY AREAS NEAR THE IMPULSE OR
HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM...SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOISE /AND KMUO/. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURDSAY NIGHT WILL KNOCK
DOWN ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR A DAY /FRIDAY/ TO SEASONAL VALUES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 0/6Z GFS AND MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW /ECMWF/ OR TROUGH /GEFS/. MORE ON THAT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED CLOUDS 12-15K FEET MSL INCREASING AFTER
22Z FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SCATTERED-BROKEN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF KONO-KWMC AFT 22Z.  SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT.  TIL 18Z EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS 5-10 KTS IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF KBOI. VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KTS ELSEWHERE.  WINDS BECOMING SWLY 8-15
KTS IN ERN OREGON AFTER 20Z.  WINDS ALOFT SWLY 20 KTS AT 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WE ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY MORNING AIDING IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY
AT KBOI AS THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....DG




000
FXUS65 KBOI 150925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WE
ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AIDING
IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY AT KBOI AS
THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON BECOMING SW
5-15KT MON AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO...SW 25-35KT IN
CENTRAL OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 150925
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD OFF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WE
ARE LEFT IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING AIDING
IN DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGH VALUES TUESDAY AT KBOI AS
THE RECORD IS ONLY 93F FOR THE DATE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN IDAHO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE BRIEFLY TAP INTO MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SECOND UPPER LOW
TRACKS INTO THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...DRAWING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE UP FROM THE DESERT SW. THE MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH A PRECEDING UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES INLAND ON FRIDAY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. AN UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT. SURFACE
WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON BECOMING SW
5-15KT MON AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OREGON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO...SW 25-35KT IN
CENTRAL OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 150901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER IDAHO. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY BEGAN INTRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS IS FOR IT TO BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS REBUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER TROF NEXT MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT THURSDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
TUESDAY A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN.
RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN STABLE AIR MASS TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUN VALLEY TO SALMON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL COVER A MORE
GENERAL AREA FROM STANLEY TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 150901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER IDAHO. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY BEGAN INTRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS IS FOR IT TO BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS REBUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER TROF NEXT MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT THURSDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
TUESDAY A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN.
RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN STABLE AIR MASS TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUN VALLEY TO SALMON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL COVER A MORE
GENERAL AREA FROM STANLEY TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 150901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER IDAHO. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY BEGAN INTRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS IS FOR IT TO BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS REBUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER TROF NEXT MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT THURSDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
TUESDAY A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN.
RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN STABLE AIR MASS TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUN VALLEY TO SALMON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL COVER A MORE
GENERAL AREA FROM STANLEY TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 150901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER IDAHO. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY BEGAN INTRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS IS FOR IT TO BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS REBUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER TROF NEXT MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT THURSDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
TUESDAY A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN.
RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN STABLE AIR MASS TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUN VALLEY TO SALMON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL COVER A MORE
GENERAL AREA FROM STANLEY TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
/INCLUDING HARNEY COUNTY/ LATE IN THE DAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM OVER HARNEY COUNTY INCLUDING KBNO ON MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST
10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER SW ID THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE SEEN IN SATIMG ACROSS E NV TO BRING NO MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO TONIGHT UNLESS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY AN IMPULSE IN THE S FLOW /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST/ WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON. THE 18Z NAM RUN EVEN MODELS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS BURNS/VALE BLM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE 18Z NAM 0-3KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE FOR 12Z TUESDAY IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WENT AHEAD
AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
OREGON LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXITING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW WILL LEAVE ENOUGH STABILITY AND
WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
/INCLUDING HARNEY COUNTY/ LATE IN THE DAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM OVER HARNEY COUNTY INCLUDING KBNO ON MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST
10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER SW ID THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE SEEN IN SATIMG ACROSS E NV TO BRING NO MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO TONIGHT UNLESS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY AN IMPULSE IN THE S FLOW /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST/ WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON. THE 18Z NAM RUN EVEN MODELS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS BURNS/VALE BLM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE 18Z NAM 0-3KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE FOR 12Z TUESDAY IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WENT AHEAD
AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
OREGON LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXITING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW WILL LEAVE ENOUGH STABILITY AND
WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
/INCLUDING HARNEY COUNTY/ LATE IN THE DAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM OVER HARNEY COUNTY INCLUDING KBNO ON MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST
10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER SW ID THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE SEEN IN SATIMG ACROSS E NV TO BRING NO MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO TONIGHT UNLESS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY AN IMPULSE IN THE S FLOW /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST/ WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON. THE 18Z NAM RUN EVEN MODELS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS BURNS/VALE BLM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE 18Z NAM 0-3KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE FOR 12Z TUESDAY IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WENT AHEAD
AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
OREGON LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXITING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW WILL LEAVE ENOUGH STABILITY AND
WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 150245
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WARMING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90F IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON
/INCLUDING HARNEY COUNTY/ LATE IN THE DAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM OVER HARNEY COUNTY INCLUDING KBNO ON MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST
10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER SW ID THROUGH MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE SEEN IN SATIMG ACROSS E NV TO BRING NO MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS SW IDAHO TONIGHT UNLESS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MORE
THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY AN IMPULSE IN THE S FLOW /SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST/ WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW TO NE OREGON. THE 18Z NAM RUN EVEN MODELS SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS BURNS/VALE BLM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE 18Z NAM 0-3KM MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE FOR 12Z TUESDAY IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WENT AHEAD
AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
OREGON LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXITING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW WILL LEAVE ENOUGH STABILITY AND
WARM AIR ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN LOWER VALLEYS WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW A BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JB



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