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000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 070421
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING FETCH OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS STRETCHING OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE INTERIOR NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS
OUT OF THE W-NW. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND FAVORED MTN VALLEYS...HOWEVER WITH
HIGH CLOUD COVER DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AND IN
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY S-SW WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH MID LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS OR BROKEN
CEILINGS. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT...BUT
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WEST AND SOUTH OF
KMUO AND IN THE KMYL AREA AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING BY 18Z. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN IN DAYS TO
COME...SUCCESSIVELY LOWERING AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS TO BELOW
1500 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM ADA
COUNTY EASTWARD...WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
AIR STAGNATION...DG
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JA/JC



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 062143
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG STORM OUT IN THE CENTRAL GULK OF ALASKA RIDES OVER A
BUILDING RIDGE AND INTO CANADA. THIS UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS
OFF THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY
INENSIFYING BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS INVERTED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE SHORT TERM THE CONCERN IS WHAT THE
AERIAL EXTENT OF ANY FOG WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE
REDUCED THE EXTENT OF FOG ACROSS THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFIENCENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN HOME THROUGH THE MAGIC
VALLEY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER/UPPER TREASURE
VALLEY...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IT IN THAT REGION.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THEREFORE
LEFT EXTENSIVE MORNING VALLEY FROM THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY ALONG WITH THE BURNS/BAKER AND MCCALL
AREA AS WELL. MONDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL FINALLY BE MORE INVERTED
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. UNDER THIS RIDGE WE WILL SEE VALLEY INVERSION
SET UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG UNDER
THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FORECAST STILL GOING TO BE TRICKY IN
THAT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG AND
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE INVERSION. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND KEPT VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. MODELS
SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO
THURSDAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE. MODELS HINTING THAT THERE COULD
BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IF WE GET ANY
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM IT WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
ZONES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE VALLEY INVERSIONS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEAVE THE TREND OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS UP IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY
ADAMS...WASHINGTON...AND VALLEY COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SIT RIGHT
AROUND 5000 FEET SO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER THINKING THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO FOG
FORMATION BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY IFR/LIFR STRATUS IF THERE ARE
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT WESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...CR
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 062004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE STATE. SO FAR...WE`VE
ONLY SEEN ANY REAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM REALLY CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES...AS WELL AS
PLACES WHERE GAP WINDS ARE INCREASING..WE ARE SEEING AT 25-35 MPH.
SOME PLACES MAY INDEED BE HIGHER BUT WE DON`T HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO
SEE IT. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PALISADES NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH
WE`VE DECREASED AMOUNTS AND CHANCES SOME...WE MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. IN ITS WAKE...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EVEN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND/CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST TO
START OUT THE WEEK. DATA STILL SHOWS THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS
VERY RARE FOR WINTERTIME...MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER. THAT MEANS VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP.
UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT SHORTER TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON HAZE IF
WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT
GOES BEFORE PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S IN THOSE AREAS...PERHAPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 40 IF WE CAN
GET SUN BREAKS AND A QUICK BURST OF MIXING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU WANT WARM WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE 40S AND
EVEN 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WILL BE A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE
WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND SETS UP A PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DSH

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 062004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE STATE. SO FAR...WE`VE
ONLY SEEN ANY REAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM REALLY CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES...AS WELL AS
PLACES WHERE GAP WINDS ARE INCREASING..WE ARE SEEING AT 25-35 MPH.
SOME PLACES MAY INDEED BE HIGHER BUT WE DON`T HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO
SEE IT. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PALISADES NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH
WE`VE DECREASED AMOUNTS AND CHANCES SOME...WE MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. IN ITS WAKE...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EVEN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND/CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST TO
START OUT THE WEEK. DATA STILL SHOWS THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS
VERY RARE FOR WINTERTIME...MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER. THAT MEANS VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP.
UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT SHORTER TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON HAZE IF
WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT
GOES BEFORE PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S IN THOSE AREAS...PERHAPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 40 IF WE CAN
GET SUN BREAKS AND A QUICK BURST OF MIXING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU WANT WARM WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE 40S AND
EVEN 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WILL BE A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE
WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND SETS UP A PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DSH

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 061648 AAA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
948 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. WE
DID DROP ANY MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS THE
SE CORNER AS IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND
MODEL DATA. STILL LOOKS LIKE JUST LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS NORTH ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND TOWARD THE MONTANA BORDER. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR
THAT WITH IT THINNING OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK UP.
WE ARE STILL TRACK FOR A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  KEYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STARTING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCH OF
SNOW OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
WITH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL ALSO BRING VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH WILL
DETERIORATE AIR QUALITY. BY MONDAY EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS STANLEY. WYATT

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE WEST. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HEDGES

AVIATION...LOW CIGS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EXPECTED TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH MORE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. LOW CIGS
LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 061630
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING. RADAR
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...BUT WEB CAMS UP ACROSS
THE PAYETTE FOREST SHOWING HINTS OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION TODAY. THIS FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
WARM FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. 12Z BOISE SOUNDING SHOWING
STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE THEN WEAKEN...12Z NAM BL WINDS
SHOWING A TRANSITION TO LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
UPDATED WINDS THROUGH THE TREASURE VALLEY FOR STRONGER WINDS THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UP TODAY AND
LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG...THIS WILL BE CHANGING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE AERIAL EXTENT. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR FOG NEAR KONO THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z.  SURFACE WINDS
EAST TO SOUTH 5-15 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20-30 KNOTS
UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER BOISE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ENOUGH WIND TO MIX OUT ANY FOG AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S.  LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO FORM AND ALSO HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AS AN
INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FOG/STRATUS DOES DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS POINT
IS HARD TO DETERMINE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES
INLAND.  THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE INVERSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE
INVERSION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL ELEVATIONS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS




000
FXUS65 KPIH 061034
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STARTING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCH OF
SNOW OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
WITH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL ALSO BRING VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH WILL
DETERIORATE AIR QUALITY. BY MONDAY EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS STANLEY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE WEST. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EXPECTED TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH MORE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. LOW CIGS
LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 061034
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STARTING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCH OF
SNOW OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
WITH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL ALSO BRING VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH WILL
DETERIORATE AIR QUALITY. BY MONDAY EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS STANLEY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE WEST. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EXPECTED TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH MORE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. LOW CIGS
LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 061034
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STARTING TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTING MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCH OF
SNOW OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
WITH THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL ALSO BRING VALLEY INVERSIONS WHICH WILL
DETERIORATE AIR QUALITY. BY MONDAY EXPECT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS STANLEY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE WEST. MOST OF THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EXPECTED TO
LIFT LATER THIS MORN...WITH MORE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN. LOW CIGS
LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 061000
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
300 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER BOISE MOUNTAINS TODAY.  ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ENOUGH WIND TO MIX OUT ANY FOG AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE 30S AND 40S.  LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG
TO FORM AND ALSO HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS AS AN
INVERSION BEGINS TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH FOG/STRATUS DOES DEVELOP WHICH AT THIS POINT
IS HARD TO DETERMINE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES
INLAND.  THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE INVERSION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY BUT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE
INVERSION BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL ELEVATIONS...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCH IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG NEAR KONO THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS
BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...RELATIVELY GOOD MIXING TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.  A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN INVERSION
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THAT WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  AIR QUALITY
MAY WORSEN AND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
AIR STAGNATION...LC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060403
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
OVERNIGHT PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POOL IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN THE SE WINDS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHICH HAS PUSHED FOG TO THE WEST OF NAMPA. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...ERODING THE DENSE FOG. NOT CONFIDENT HOW FAST
THIS WILL OCCUR AND UNTIL THEN VISIBILITIES BETWEEN CALDWELL AND
ONTARIO WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST
WEST OF KBOI AND IN THE KJER AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN BELOW 4K FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z...ENDING THE KBKE AREA BY 12Z AND THE KMYL
AREA BY 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN IDAHO TONIGHT...PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER MAINLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING IN BAKER COUNTY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE
MODERATELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING FOG FORMATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG THAT IS ONGOING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN...AT LEAST WITH PATCHY COVERAGE...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVER A LARGER
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS SAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ON THE SMALL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WARM LATE SUNDAY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE. WE
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER
AND MUCH OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME THING. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WE WILL BE
DRY SAT THROUGH SUN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FOG AND STRATUS WILL
FORM UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE THROUGH STARTING
THURSDAY AM WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING ANYTHING INTO THE CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY PM. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IF AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION HITS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO
BRING ABOUT INVERSION CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AIR QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED...AND FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION...JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM...JA/JC
AIR STAGNATION...SP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 060403
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
OVERNIGHT PRECIP BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POOL IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS IN THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN THE SE WINDS IN THE TREASURE
VALLEY WHICH HAS PUSHED FOG TO THE WEST OF NAMPA. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY...ERODING THE DENSE FOG. NOT CONFIDENT HOW FAST
THIS WILL OCCUR AND UNTIL THEN VISIBILITIES BETWEEN CALDWELL AND
ONTARIO WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HAVE
MADE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASE FOG COVERAGE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL PERSIST
WEST OF KBOI AND IN THE KJER AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED MVFR SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN BELOW 4K FT MSL...WILL
SPREAD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z...ENDING THE KBKE AREA BY 12Z AND THE KMYL
AREA BY 18Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST 30-40 KTS THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN IDAHO TONIGHT...PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER MAINLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING IN BAKER COUNTY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE
MODERATELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING FOG FORMATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG THAT IS ONGOING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN...AT LEAST WITH PATCHY COVERAGE...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVER A LARGER
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS SAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ON THE SMALL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WARM LATE SUNDAY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE. WE
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER
AND MUCH OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME THING. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WE WILL BE
DRY SAT THROUGH SUN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FOG AND STRATUS WILL
FORM UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE THROUGH STARTING
THURSDAY AM WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING ANYTHING INTO THE CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY PM. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IF AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION HITS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO
BRING ABOUT INVERSION CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AIR QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED...AND FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY IDZ012.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION...JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM...JA/JC
AIR STAGNATION...SP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 052154
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN IDAHO TONIGHT...PROVIDING A GLANCING BLOW
TO OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER MAINLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA STARTING THIS EVENING IN BAKER COUNTY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE
MODERATELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...LIMITING FOG FORMATION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE FOG THAT IS ONGOING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN...AT LEAST WITH PATCHY COVERAGE...
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVER A LARGER
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 5 AM FOR MAINLY THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS SAT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH FOG FORMS AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ON THE SMALL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INVERSION TAKES HOLD. AS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WARM LATE SUNDAY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STRUGGLE. WE
HAVE GONE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER
AND MUCH OF THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
EXPERIENCE THE SAME THING. WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WE WILL BE
DRY SAT THROUGH SUN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS RIDGE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG UNDER THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH FOG AND STRATUS WILL
FORM UNDER THE INVERSION...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE THROUGH STARTING
THURSDAY AM WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING ANYTHING INTO THE CWA UNTIL
FRIDAY PM. WITH THIS BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH THAT IF AND WHEN THE PRECIPITATION HITS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE
INVERSION APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY MORNING SO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG HAS DECREASED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAINS AT KJER AND IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
FROM KEUL-KONO. THINKING THIS FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REDEVELOP AND SPREAD AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING FOG AT KBOI UNTIL 12Z...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE 12Z.  NO FOG AT KTWF...BUT AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK COULD MOVE IN AFTER 06Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS BAKER COUNTY
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG FORMING
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT TO
BRING ABOUT INVERSION CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AIR QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED...AND FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN VALLEYS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...SP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 052100
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NW
COASTAL WATERS. MODELS DRIVE THIS WAVE EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL IMPACTING MAINLY
THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (MUCH LESS AREA AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FORECASTS...SO TRENDING FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE IMPACTS). AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING WSW WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH AN EASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE COASTAL STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE PROMOTING VALLEY INVERSIONS AND DETERIORATING AIR
QUALITY. THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO WARM NICELY EXTENDING INTO THE 40S AT
PLACES LIKE STANLEY AND ISLAND PARK BY MONDAY. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE. SOME INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT WITH STRONG INVERSIONS AND LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND/OR
HAZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHERE WE CAN GET GAP WINDS WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE 40S...BUT WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IS THAT
MOST VALLEYS STAY IN THE 20-35 DEGREE RANGE. IF YOU WANT A BREAK
FROM THE COLD...HEAD UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS. ABOVE THE INVERSION...WE
ARE EXPECTING 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS WITH VERY MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THAT MAY SEEM NICE FOR SOME...THIS MEANS THERE
ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR MELTING SNOW AND EVEN SOME MINOR
FLOODING OR RUNOFF. THERE WOULD ALSO BE SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASING
SLIDE/AVALANCHE DANGER. THE END OF THE WEEK DOES SHOW THE RIDGE
FLATTENING A BIT. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATING A
BIT...COOLING THE MOUNTAINS AND ACTUAL WARMING IN THE VALLEYS AS THE
INVERSIONS WEAKEN. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HAVING A VERY HARD
TIME ON THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING AS SHOWN IN THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THE ENSEMBLE DATA. DESPITE THAT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE BY FRIDAY THERE
WILL BE SOME AMOUNT OF INCREASE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR BUT NOT
EXPECTED IN EASTERN IDAHO. EVERYTHING SUGGESTS THAT BY SOMETIME THIS
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE MVFR AND EVEN VFR WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES. WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT AT KBYI. KSUN WILL BE ON THE
FENCE AGAIN AS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT
AND COULD EASILY PUSH BACK INTO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY AS THE WINDS
WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHERLY. THAT WOULD GO AWAY THOUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE WINDS DO THEIR USUAL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL
PROBABLY TAKE THE NEXT STORM DROPPING TOWARD THE STATE TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT KPIH AND KIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
15-25KT WINDS DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RIGHT NOW
RAIN OR SNOW CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCSH AT KSUN OR KIDA.
KPIH AND KBYI COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT THE CHANCE IS EVEN
LOWER AT THOSE AIRPORTS. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051618
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN MUCH OF CANYON COUNTY AND
ALSO NW ADA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE FOG IS
PATCHY IN MOUNTAIN-VALLEYS...BAKER COUNTY...THE UPPER WEISER
RIVER BASIN...THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND JEROME. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE AREA. APART FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI WEST TO KONO...WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF A KBNO-
KONO-KSNT LINE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO
A STRONG INVERSION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AIR STAGNATION PROBLEMS IN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS TODAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD AXIS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION TO THE VALLEY FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS THOUGH THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND FOG IS STILL IN QUESTION. MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED BEFORE TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE VALLEY /UPPER 30S/
THAN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE AND INVERSION BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL START SEEING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS SIT BETWEEN 6500 AND
8000 FEET SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODELS BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051618
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN MUCH OF CANYON COUNTY AND
ALSO NW ADA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE FOG IS
PATCHY IN MOUNTAIN-VALLEYS...BAKER COUNTY...THE UPPER WEISER
RIVER BASIN...THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND JEROME. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE AREA. APART FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI WEST TO KONO...WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF A KBNO-
KONO-KSNT LINE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO
A STRONG INVERSION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AIR STAGNATION PROBLEMS IN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS TODAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD AXIS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION TO THE VALLEY FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS THOUGH THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND FOG IS STILL IN QUESTION. MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED BEFORE TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE VALLEY /UPPER 30S/
THAN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE AND INVERSION BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL START SEEING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS SIT BETWEEN 6500 AND
8000 FEET SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODELS BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051618
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN MUCH OF CANYON COUNTY AND
ALSO NW ADA COUNTY THIS MORNING...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11 AM MST FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE FOG IS
PATCHY IN MOUNTAIN-VALLEYS...BAKER COUNTY...THE UPPER WEISER
RIVER BASIN...THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
TREASURE VALLEY. LOW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT AROUND JEROME. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE
VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AS PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUD CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE AREA. APART FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KBOI WEST TO KONO...WILL DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF A KBNO-
KONO-KSNT LINE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO
A STRONG INVERSION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AIR STAGNATION PROBLEMS IN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS TODAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD AXIS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION TO THE VALLEY FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS THOUGH THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND FOG IS STILL IN QUESTION. MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED BEFORE TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE VALLEY /UPPER 30S/
THAN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE AND INVERSION BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL START SEEING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS SIT BETWEEN 6500 AND
8000 FEET SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODELS BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KPIH 051035
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TONIGHT THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WILL
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SNOW ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL GRAZE OUR NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY BRINGING AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS INCLUDING PINE CREEK AND TETON PASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT BREEZY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WYATT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO FRI. INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS
EARLY AS FRI MORN AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRI NIGHT.
THE GFS IS DRIER AND RUNNING NEARLY 24 HRS SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD DURING THE DAY...BUT COLD OVERNIGHT IN THE
VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE
INVERSION. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTN...
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY EARLY AFTN AT KBYI. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT KPIH BY LATE AFTN...AND AT KIDA THIS EVE.
KSUN IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLD FIELD...AND MINOR
CHANGES IN THE DOWN VALLEY WINDS WILL BRING THE CLDS IN AND OUT THIS
MORN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MORN. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051023
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
323 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS TODAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY
WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD AXIS
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST LATE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STRONG INVERSION TO THE VALLEY FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS THOUGH THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS
AND FOG IS STILL IN QUESTION. MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE EXPECTED BEFORE TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE VALLEY /UPPER 30S/
THAN IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE INVERSION WHERE HIGHS COULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER RIDGE AND INVERSION BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL START SEEING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS SIT BETWEEN 6500 AND
8000 FEET SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH VARIES AMONG MODELS BUT ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS WILL SEE IFR FROM LOW STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH
18Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MID LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDS SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST 10-20
KTS. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-
KMYL LINE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ENDING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING STRATUS
AND FOG TO SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...A VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL BRING INVERTED
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN BRINGS STAGNANT CONDITIONS BELOW AROUND 4500
FEET MSL INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS
AIR STAGNATION...VM




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