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000
FXUS65 KBOI 230239
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
839 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...With the main upper low center well to the
northeast, shower activity will dissipate across southeast Oregon
and most of southwest Idaho overnight as the atmosphere
stabilizes. The one exception will be the west-central Idaho
mountains (generally north and east of McCall), where isolated
showers will linger into Monday morning. The current forecast
captures this well so no updates are planned for tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
end by 06z, then redevelop over the higher terrain on Monday, mainly
after 18z. Surface winds will be variable 10 kts or less, except 15-
25 kts in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Winds aloft
will be southwest to west around 10 kts at10k ft MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Broad upper trough will
be situated over the region through Tuesday, with a couple of upper
level disturbances moving through Southeast Oregon and Southwest
Idaho. Thus, the showers will continue mainly each afternoon and
evening, with decreasing coverage after sunset. Isolated
thunderstorms will be mainly south and east of Boise until around
sunset. Instability will not be as favorable for thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, but better instability returns Tuesday afternoon
for a slight chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be
3-6 degrees warmer on Monday and another 1-2 degrees warmer on
Tuesday. Winds will be light, except gusty/erratic winds are
expected with the thunderstorms.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Mean upper level
trough will continue to impact the Western United States through
the extended period. Expect unsettled conditions to continue with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect diurnal
precipitation pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon each day especially over the higher terrain.
Forecast confidence for Memorial Day Weekend is low at this time
as the models bring a closed low south out of the Gulf of Alaska
over the Pacific Northwest, which would bring cool and showery
conditions. Models differ on the handling of this trough as the
GFS keeps the low center over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend while the ECMWF and Canadian eject the low into Alberta on
Sunday which would bring warmer and drier conditions to the
region.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 222042
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
242 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Broad upper trough will
be situated over the region through Tuesday, with a couple of upper
level disturbances moving through Southeast Oregon and Southwest
Idaho. Thus, the showers will continue mainly each afternoon and
evening, with decreasing coverage after sunset. Isolated
thunderstorms will be mainly south and east of Boise until around
sunset. Instability will not be as favorable for thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, but better instability returns Tuesday afternoon
for a slight chance of thunderstorms. High temperatures will be
3-6 degrees warmer on Monday and another 1-2 degrees warmer on
Tuesday. Winds will be light, except gusty/erratic winds are
expected with the thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Mean upper level
trough will continue to impact the Western United States through
the extended period. Expect unsettled conditions to continue with
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect diurnal
precipitation pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing
during the afternoon each day especially over the higher terrain.
Forecast confidence for Memorial Day Weekend is low at this time
as the models bring a closed low south out of the Gulf of Alaska
over the Pacific Northwest, which would bring cool and showery
conditions. Models differ on the handling of this trough as the
GFS keeps the low center over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend while the ECMWF and Canadian eject the low into Alberta on
Sunday which would bring warmer and drier conditions to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Scattered showers with areas of MVFR
and mountain obscuration. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. Shower activity will diminish after sunset. Surface
winds: Westerly 5-15kt with gusts up to 30kt in the vicinity of
showers and thunderstorms, becoming light after sunset. Winds
aloft at 10,000ft MSL: WSW 10-20kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220951 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Boise ID
351 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Isolated showers circulating
around the upper closed low continue this morning in the West
Central Mountains as of 3 AM MST. Closed low will be well to the
region`s northeast later this morning, but a few weak disturbances
will keep showers in the forecast through Monday. The first
disturbance is set to enter SE Oregon this morning and exit SW
Idaho this evening. Will see the second disturbance move through
the region Monday. Instability associated with each disturbance
will be weak, but may see a few isolated thunderstorms in SW Idaho
each afternoon. Snow levels are around 5.5k to 6k feet MSL this
morning and will slowly rise to about 6.5k ft this afternoon and
7k ft by Monday. Snow accumulations up to about an inch are
possible this morning, with only light accumulations expected this
afternoon and beyond. Temperatures will trend warmer through the
period.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...The weather in the
western U.S will continue to be influenced by a generally troughy
pattern through the extended period. This will bring showery
conditions at times and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal
through the period. Expect more shower activity and even some
isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons when day time heating
will make the atmosphere slightly unstable. Cool and showery
weather is likely during Memorial Day weekend with most models
showing another closed low developing right over the inland
Pacific Northwest on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect mostly VFR through the valleys of
southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho today with isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. MVFR in the mountains
with scattered rain and snow showers occasionally obscuring the
mountains and producing IFR. Snow levels around 6500 feet by this
afternoon. Surface winds will be generally from the NW at less
than 15 kts but gusty in vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds aloft will be W to NW around 25 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220937
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
337 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Isolated showers circulating
around the upper closed low continue this morning in the West
Central Mountains as of 3 AM MST. Closed low will be well to the
region`s northeast later this morning, but a few weak disturbances
will keep showers in the forecast through Monday. Instability
associated with each disturbance will be weak, but may see a few
isolated thunderstorms in SW Idaho each afternoon. Snow levels are
around 5.5k to 6k feet MSL this morning and will slowly rise to
about 6.5k ft this afternoon and 7k ft by Monday. Snow
accumulations up to about an inch are possible this morning, with
only light accumulations expected this afternoon and beyond.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the period.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...The weather in the
western U.S will continue to be influenced by a generally troughy
pattern through the extended period. This will bring showery
conditions at times and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal
through the period. Expect more shower activity and even some
isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons when day time heating
will make the atmosphere slightly unstable. Cool and showery
weather is likely during Memorial Day weekend with most models
showing another closed low developing right over the inland
Pacific Northwest on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect mostly VFR through the valleys of
southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho today with isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. MVFR in the mountains
with scattered rain and snow showers occasionally obscuring the
mountains and producing IFR. Snow levels around 6500 feet by this
afternoon. Surface winds will be generally from the NW at less
than 15 kts but gusty in vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
Winds aloft will be W to NW around 25 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB




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