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000
FXUS65 KBOI 280247
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
847 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Hot weather along with a weak short wave trough in
the southwesterly flow aloft generated convective clouds in the Blue
Mountains in Oregon and the central mountains in Idaho.
Thunderstorms formed just northeast of out CWA late today but were
tracking into Montana this evening. The short wave trough will exit
our area tonight, leaving Tuesday sunny and hot but with less
convective potential than today, which wasn`t much anyway.  After a
degree or two cooling Tuesday behind the departing weak trough,
Wednesday will be hot again, but also with some monsoon moisture
moving north to the Nevada/Idaho border.  No thunderstorms are
forecast in that area just yet but we will monitor in later model
forecasts.  No updates at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Until 05z scattered
cumulus in the Blue Mountains of Oregon and in the central mountains
in Idaho.  Surface winds variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft near
10 kft MSL, southwest around 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Upper level ridging has
moved into the area. Shortwave currently moving across Oregon
helping fuel cumulus clouds over the higher terrain of NE Oregon and
central Idaho. A slight chance of thunderstorms this evening over
the central Idaho mountains north and east of McCall. Drier air
moves in from the southwest overnight and thickness values continue
to increase into Wednesday, which is different from previous model
forecasts. Temperatures will gradually warm through Wednesday, with
Wednesday being the warmest day of the period. Temperatures expected
to be 100-105F in the Snake Plain on Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. A persistent upper
level ridge will remain the dominant feature through at least
Thursday. Monsoonal moisture being wrapped around the high, but it
looks like most of that moisture will remain to our south and
east. So, a slight chance of thunderstorms exists in the Idaho
mountains but confidence is low. By Friday, an upper level low off
the coast of British Columbia coast will begin moving south and
slowly push the ridge, and moisture, east. By Saturday night into
Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF bring that low inland and across
the iDAHO panhandle, likely with a surface cold front. There are
some important differences in the placement of any showers or
thunderstorms with the passage of this low, so precipitation
chances remain low and confined to the northern portions of the
forecast area. Dry northwest flow looks to replace this low by
Monday. Temperatures remain above normal, then a cooling trend to
near normal is expected for the weekend.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280247
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
847 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Hot weather along with a weak short wave trough in
the southwesterly flow aloft generated convective clouds in the Blue
Mountains in Oregon and the central mountains in Idaho.
Thunderstorms formed just northeast of out CWA late today but were
tracking into Montana this evening. The short wave trough will exit
our area tonight, leaving Tuesday sunny and hot but with less
convective potential than today, which wasn`t much anyway.  After a
degree or two cooling Tuesday behind the departing weak trough,
Wednesday will be hot again, but also with some monsoon moisture
moving north to the Nevada/Idaho border.  No thunderstorms are
forecast in that area just yet but we will monitor in later model
forecasts.  No updates at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Until 05z scattered
cumulus in the Blue Mountains of Oregon and in the central mountains
in Idaho.  Surface winds variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft near
10 kft MSL, southwest around 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Upper level ridging has
moved into the area. Shortwave currently moving across Oregon
helping fuel cumulus clouds over the higher terrain of NE Oregon and
central Idaho. A slight chance of thunderstorms this evening over
the central Idaho mountains north and east of McCall. Drier air
moves in from the southwest overnight and thickness values continue
to increase into Wednesday, which is different from previous model
forecasts. Temperatures will gradually warm through Wednesday, with
Wednesday being the warmest day of the period. Temperatures expected
to be 100-105F in the Snake Plain on Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. A persistent upper
level ridge will remain the dominant feature through at least
Thursday. Monsoonal moisture being wrapped around the high, but it
looks like most of that moisture will remain to our south and
east. So, a slight chance of thunderstorms exists in the Idaho
mountains but confidence is low. By Friday, an upper level low off
the coast of British Columbia coast will begin moving south and
slowly push the ridge, and moisture, east. By Saturday night into
Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF bring that low inland and across
the iDAHO panhandle, likely with a surface cold front. There are
some important differences in the placement of any showers or
thunderstorms with the passage of this low, so precipitation
chances remain low and confined to the northern portions of the
forecast area. Dry northwest flow looks to replace this low by
Monday. Temperatures remain above normal, then a cooling trend to
near normal is expected for the weekend.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....LC
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272046
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
246 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Upper level ridging has
moved into the area. Shortwave currently moving across Oregon
helping fuel cumulus clouds over the higher terrain of NE Oregon
and central Idaho. A slight chance of thunderstorms possible this
evening over the central Idaho mountains north and east of McCall.
Drier air moves in from the southwest overnight and thickness
values continue to increase into Wednesday, which is different
from previous model forecasts. Temperatures will gradually warm
through Wednesday, with Wednesday being the warmest day of the
period. Temperatures expected to be 100-105F in the Snake Plain on
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday. A persistent upper
level ridge will remain the dominant feature through at least
Thursday. Monsoonal moisture being wrapped around the high, but it
looks like most of that moisture will remain to our south and
east. So, a slight chance of thunderstorms exists in the Idaho
mountains but confidence is low. By Friday, an upper level low off
the coast of British Columbia coast will begin moving south and
slowly push the ridge, and moisture, east. By Saturday night into
Sunday, both the GFS and ECMWF bring that low inland and across
the panhandle, likely with a surface front. There are some
important differences in the placement of any showers or
thunderstorms with the passage of this low, so precipitation
chances remain low and confined to the northern portions of the
forecast area. Dry northwest flow looks to replace this low by
Monday. Temperatures remain above normal, then a cooling trend to
near normal is expected for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds will be
variable around 10 kts or less. Winds aloft through 10 kft MSL,
south around 10 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 272008
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night. Southwest flow
remains aloft with high pressure centered over four-corners
region. Weak shortwave pushing through SE Oregon this afternoon
may be enough to fire isolated convection over portions of central
mountains this evening. Best instability over Lemhi region and
into Montana, but enough to keep weak mention of thunderstorms in
place tonight. NAM picks up on additional instability in slightly
better mid level moisture region during the day Tuesday. GFS not
as aggressive developing QPF associated with it but moisture
pocket shows up there as well so spread weak pops along the WY
border for the afternoon and evening. NAM continues to be most
aggressive in surging moisture north around the high as early as
Wednesday across the region. GFS/EC both nudge moisture into
southern portions of the state so left weak pops in place over
highlands.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday July 4th. Deeper moisture
advects into SE Idaho for the pre-holiday and holiday weekend.
Have left thunderstorms painted across most of the region for each
afternoon and evening. Breakdown of the upper ridge occurs
Saturday night into Sunday with shift of frontal boundary through
the region. Sunday/Monday the 4th likely to be breezy to windy in
addition to continued threat of mainly diurnal thunderstorms.
Sunday/Monday also likely to be coolest days of the week post-
fronts. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the
period. Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Central
Mountains this evening, but should steer clear of KSUN. Hinsberger


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Upper high over the Desert Southwest should keep dry
conditions in the forecast for the next couple of days. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop through this evening over the Central
Mountains as a shortwave trough lifts over the top of the ridge.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and low RH will aid in
drying fuels out over the area. East Idaho opens up to the monsoonal
moisture in the latter half of the week which will increase coverage
of thunderstorms across the area Thursday and Friday. Forcing will
be provided by an upper trough pushing through the PAC NW. A
stronger trough will push into the area over the weekend, and a cold
front may push through the area as early as Sunday, meaning cooler
temps and higher RH, but also stronger winds and the potential for
thunder. Hinsberger


&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271525
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
925 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Weak shortwave moving onto the Oregon Coast this
morning will generate enough instability to create clouds over the
higher terrain this afternoon and a slight chance of thunderstorms
over the Blue Mountains of Oregon and central Idaho mountains.
Elsewhere, mostly clear skies expected. Temperatures running
about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday at this time, with
temperatures near 100 degrees today in the Snake Plain. Current
forecast reflects this well. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear skies. Surface winds variable 10
kts or less. Winds aloft through 10 kft MSL, south around 15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Upper level ridge now well
developed over the forecast area. Temperatures in most areas will
be about 15 degrees above normal today, which is near 100 degrees
in lower valleys. Weak upper-level waves rippling up across OR/WA
in the southwest flow aloft, will generate a few clouds high
clouds over the area, and a few convective clouds over the
mountains during the afternoon and evening. Only slight chance that
any of these will develop enough to create precip over any of the
mountains. Possibly a degree or two cooler on Tuesday, and even
less chance of a mountain shower as the flow is a little bit more
westerly and drier aloft.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Little change in the
weather pattern as an upper level ridge will remain over the
forecast area through at least Thursday. An upper level low over the
Gulf of Alaska and associated upper level trough off the Canadian
Pacific Coast will being to push the ridge to the east Friday.
Models still showing monsoon moisture moving north through Arizona
and Utah Thursday and Friday, but thinking most of the moisture and
any associated showers and thunderstorms will remain east of the
forecast area. Since there has been some uncertainty as to where the
monsoon moisture will be, will keep the forecast trend of slight
chance pops over higher terrain of southwest Idaho for Thursday and
Friday afternoon. For the weekend models still trending for the
upper level low and associated trough to move into the Canadian and
Pacific Northwest coast. Models indicating any moisture with this
system will remain north of the forecast area, but will keep the
slight chance pops over northern zones Saturday. Temperatures are
expected to average 10-12 degrees above normal through most of the
extended period, but may cool to around 5 degrees above normal for
the weekend.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 270937
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
337 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Current water vapor
imagery shows a high pressure ridge centered over Idaho. Expect
mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures through the period. A
disturbance will move through the ridging late today into Tuesday
bringing very isolated showers/thunderstorms over the Central
mountains and the Montana border. Additionally, look for winds to
slightly increase across the area on Tuesday. Ridging builds in
stronger late Tuesday into Wednesday across the area. Temperatures
will rise above normal today and continue to be above normal
through Wednesday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday, July 4th. Sub-tropical
moisture starts to work its way into the area Thursday and will
remain through Sunday. Expect a chance of afternoon isolated
thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Expect winds to increase
slightly Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through
the area on Sunday into Monday. Look for breezy to moderate winds
on Sunday as the cold front moves through the area. Afternoon
thunderstorm coverage may increase to scattered on Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday and possible Sunday for our Eastern areas.
However...confidence continues to be low for thunderstorm coverage
particularly for the weekend as models continue to change slightly
with each run. Monday, July 4th, looks to be mostly dry. However,
models are showing moderate winds behind an exiting cold front.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...VFR scattered high clouds today and tonight. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure positioned over the desert
SW will expand northward today remaining the dominant feature
through at least Wednesday resulting in much warmer and drier
conditions. A weak low pressure system lifting NE into Vancouver
Island this morning will ride up over the top of this developing
ridge into Canada providing weak dynamical support for convective
lift across the CNTRL mountains today and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon/evening. Marginal
instability and moisture linger over the CNTRL mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday as sub-tropical moisture pooling across Arizona and SRN
California begin to push north into Nevada and Utah. For Thursday
through Saturday, the interplay between sub-tropical moisture
seeping north across the SRN Idaho border and a PAC trough advancing
into WRN Canada should create greater opportunities for scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity and potential starts in
an increasingly receptive fine fuel bed. By Sunday, it is looking
more likely that a cold front will sweep through the region bringing
some relief to the unseasonably warm temperatures but increasing
wind as well. Moderate to strong winds will likely remain over the
region Monday and Tuesday helping to draw out any latent fire starts
as the deep Low pressure system gradually shifts east through
Canada. Huston

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 270937
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
337 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Current water vapor
imagery shows a high pressure ridge centered over Idaho. Expect
mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures through the period. A
disturbance will move through the ridging late today into Tuesday
bringing very isolated showers/thunderstorms over the Central
mountains and the Montana border. Additionally, look for winds to
slightly increase across the area on Tuesday. Ridging builds in
stronger late Tuesday into Wednesday across the area. Temperatures
will rise above normal today and continue to be above normal
through Wednesday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday, July 4th. Sub-tropical
moisture starts to work its way into the area Thursday and will
remain through Sunday. Expect a chance of afternoon isolated
thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Expect winds to increase
slightly Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through
the area on Sunday into Monday. Look for breezy to moderate winds
on Sunday as the cold front moves through the area. Afternoon
thunderstorm coverage may increase to scattered on Thursday,
Friday, and Saturday and possible Sunday for our Eastern areas.
However...confidence continues to be low for thunderstorm coverage
particularly for the weekend as models continue to change slightly
with each run. Monday, July 4th, looks to be mostly dry. However,
models are showing moderate winds behind an exiting cold front.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...VFR scattered high clouds today and tonight. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure positioned over the desert
SW will expand northward today remaining the dominant feature
through at least Wednesday resulting in much warmer and drier
conditions. A weak low pressure system lifting NE into Vancouver
Island this morning will ride up over the top of this developing
ridge into Canada providing weak dynamical support for convective
lift across the CNTRL mountains today and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon/evening. Marginal
instability and moisture linger over the CNTRL mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday as sub-tropical moisture pooling across Arizona and SRN
California begin to push north into Nevada and Utah. For Thursday
through Saturday, the interplay between sub-tropical moisture
seeping north across the SRN Idaho border and a PAC trough advancing
into WRN Canada should create greater opportunities for scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity and potential starts in
an increasingly receptive fine fuel bed. By Sunday, it is looking
more likely that a cold front will sweep through the region bringing
some relief to the unseasonably warm temperatures but increasing
wind as well. Moderate to strong winds will likely remain over the
region Monday and Tuesday helping to draw out any latent fire starts
as the deep Low pressure system gradually shifts east through
Canada. Huston

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270912
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
312 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Upper level ridge now well
developed over the forecast area. Temperatures in most areas will
be about 15 degrees above normal today, which is near 100 degrees
in lower valleys. Weak upper-level waves rippling up across OR/WA
in the southwest flow aloft, will generate a few clouds high
clouds over the area, and a few convective clouds over the
mountains during the afternoon and evening. Only slight chance that
any of these will develop enough to create precip over any of the
mountains. Possibly a degree or two cooler on Tuesday, and even
less chance of a mountain shower as the flow is a little bit more
westerly and drier aloft.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Little change in the
weather pattern as an upper level ridge will remain over the
forecast area through at least Thursday. An upper level low over the
Gulf of Alaska and associated upper level trough off the Canadian
Pacific Coast will being to push the ridge to the east Friday.
Models still showing monsoon moisture moving north through Arizona
and Utah Thursday and Friday, but thinking most of the moisture and
any associated showers and thunderstorms will remain east of the
forecast area. Since there has been some uncertainty as to where the
monsoon moisture will be, will keep the forecast trend of slight
chance pops over higher terrain of southwest Idaho for Thursday and
Friday afternoon. For the weekend models still trending for the
upper level low and associated trough to move into the Canadian and
Pacific Northwest coast. Models indicating any moisture with this
system will remain north of the forecast area, but will keep the
slight chance pops over northern zones Saturday. Temperatures are
expected to average 10-12 degrees above normal through most of the
extended period, but may cool to around 5 degrees above normal for
the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds variable 12 knows
or less. Winds aloft southwesterly 5-15 knots up through 10K feet
MSL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270231
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Some high-based clouds were moving across northwestern
Nevada through southern Idaho this evening, but skies were clear
elsewhere.  As expected, today was about 10 degrees warmer than
Saturday.  Monday will be another 7 to 10 degrees warmer than today,
and probably the hottest day of the coming week, but only by a
small margin.  A weak short wave trough from the southwest will
cool us slightly Tuesday while pushing the hottest air to our east.
Just enough instability and moisture for a slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in the Idaho central
mountains.  Gradual cooling late in the week as an upper trough
from the Gulf of Alaska edges inland into the northwest states.
No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds will be variable at
10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: SSW 5-15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft is
currently in place over the forecast area as warmer temperatures
aloft continue to move into the region. Expect another 10 degrees
of warming on Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100
degrees in the Snake Plain. A weak shortwave present on water
vapor satellite imagery near 135W and 37N will move across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Monday afternoon. Enough
instability is present with this shortwave, combined with surface
heating, to trigger an isolated thunderstorm over the central
Idaho mountains Monday afternoon and evening. As the shortwave
moves east, upper level heights decrease slightly for Tuesday
afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler on Tuesday compared
to Monday. Enough instability present Tuesday afternoon will allow
clouds to form over the higher terrain with a chance of thunderstorms
mainly over the central Idaho mountains, with mostly clear skies
in the Snake Plain.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday night...An upper level
ridge with its axis almost directly overhead will dominate the
weather through at least Wednesday. As an upper low off the
British Columbia coast begins to push the ridge east, shortwaves
in the flow will tap into some monsoon moisture and present the
chance of showers on Thursday and Friday afternoons. However,
models are showing the majority of this convective activity
staying mostly to the south and east of the forecast area, so
confidence is low on any showers or thunderstorms.  Temperatures
are expected to remain well above normal through the period with
some abatement on Friday possible with showers andincreased
cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...The upper low off the British
Columbia coast continues to shift the upper level ridge eastward
through the period, keeping the hottest temperatures south and
east of the area. Some instability is present in the afternoons
for both Saturday and Sunday, so thunderstorms are not out of
the question. Temperatures remain around 5 degrees above normal
through this period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270231
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Some high-based clouds were moving across northwestern
Nevada through southern Idaho this evening, but skies were clear
elsewhere.  As expected, today was about 10 degrees warmer than
Saturday.  Monday will be another 7 to 10 degrees warmer than today,
and probably the hottest day of the coming week, but only by a
small margin.  A weak short wave trough from the southwest will
cool us slightly Tuesday while pushing the hottest air to our east.
Just enough instability and moisture for a slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening in the Idaho central
mountains.  Gradual cooling late in the week as an upper trough
from the Gulf of Alaska edges inland into the northwest states.
No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds will be variable at
10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: SSW 5-15 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft is
currently in place over the forecast area as warmer temperatures
aloft continue to move into the region. Expect another 10 degrees
of warming on Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100
degrees in the Snake Plain. A weak shortwave present on water
vapor satellite imagery near 135W and 37N will move across
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Monday afternoon. Enough
instability is present with this shortwave, combined with surface
heating, to trigger an isolated thunderstorm over the central
Idaho mountains Monday afternoon and evening. As the shortwave
moves east, upper level heights decrease slightly for Tuesday
afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler on Tuesday compared
to Monday. Enough instability present Tuesday afternoon will allow
clouds to form over the higher terrain with a chance of thunderstorms
mainly over the central Idaho mountains, with mostly clear skies
in the Snake Plain.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday night...An upper level
ridge with its axis almost directly overhead will dominate the
weather through at least Wednesday. As an upper low off the
British Columbia coast begins to push the ridge east, shortwaves
in the flow will tap into some monsoon moisture and present the
chance of showers on Thursday and Friday afternoons. However,
models are showing the majority of this convective activity
staying mostly to the south and east of the forecast area, so
confidence is low on any showers or thunderstorms.  Temperatures
are expected to remain well above normal through the period with
some abatement on Friday possible with showers andincreased
cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...The upper low off the British
Columbia coast continues to shift the upper level ridge eastward
through the period, keeping the hottest temperatures south and
east of the area. Some instability is present in the afternoons
for both Saturday and Sunday, so thunderstorms are not out of
the question. Temperatures remain around 5 degrees above normal
through this period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....EP/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262034
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft is
currently in place over the forecast area as warmer temperatures
aloft continue to move into the region. Expect another 10 degrees
of warming on Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100
degrees in the Snake Plain. A weak shortwave present on WV near
135W and 37N will move across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho
on Monday afternoon. Enough instability is present with this
shortwave, combined with surface heating, to trigger an isolated
thunderstorm over the central Idaho mountains Monday afternoon and
evening. As the shortwave moves east, upper level heights decrease
slightly for Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler
on Tuesday compared to Monday. Enough instability present Tuesday
afternoon will allow clouds to form over the higher terrain with a
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the central Idaho mountains,
with mostly clear skies in the Snake Plain.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday night...An upper level
ridge with its axis almost directly overhead will dominate the
weather through at least Wednesday. As an upper low off the
British Columbia coast begins to push the ridge east, shortwaves
in the flow will tap into some monsoon moisture and present the
chance of showers on Thursday and Friday afternoons. However,
models are showing the majority of this convective activity
staying mostly to the south and east of the forecast area, so
confidence is low on any widespread showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through the
period with some abatement on Friday possible with showers and
increased cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...The upper low off the British
Columbia coast continues to shift the upper level ridge eastward
through the period, keeping the hottest temperatures south and
east of the area. Some slight instability is present in the
afternoon for both Saturday and Sunday, so an isolated
thunderstorm is not out of the question. Temperatures remain
around 5 degrees above normal through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds variable at 10kt or
less. Winds aloft at 10KFT MSL: variable 5-10kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262034
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
234 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft is
currently in place over the forecast area as warmer temperatures
aloft continue to move into the region. Expect another 10 degrees
of warming on Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100
degrees in the Snake Plain. A weak shortwave present on WV near
135W and 37N will move across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho
on Monday afternoon. Enough instability is present with this
shortwave, combined with surface heating, to trigger an isolated
thunderstorm over the central Idaho mountains Monday afternoon and
evening. As the shortwave moves east, upper level heights decrease
slightly for Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures slightly cooler
on Tuesday compared to Monday. Enough instability present Tuesday
afternoon will allow clouds to form over the higher terrain with a
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the central Idaho mountains,
with mostly clear skies in the Snake Plain.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday night...An upper level
ridge with its axis almost directly overhead will dominate the
weather through at least Wednesday. As an upper low off the
British Columbia coast begins to push the ridge east, shortwaves
in the flow will tap into some monsoon moisture and present the
chance of showers on Thursday and Friday afternoons. However,
models are showing the majority of this convective activity
staying mostly to the south and east of the forecast area, so
confidence is low on any widespread showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through the
period with some abatement on Friday possible with showers and
increased cloud cover.

Friday night through Sunday...The upper low off the British
Columbia coast continues to shift the upper level ridge eastward
through the period, keeping the hottest temperatures south and
east of the area. Some slight instability is present in the
afternoon for both Saturday and Sunday, so an isolated
thunderstorm is not out of the question. Temperatures remain
around 5 degrees above normal through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds variable at 10kt or
less. Winds aloft at 10KFT MSL: variable 5-10kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....EP/JC
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 261924
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
124 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. The ridge continues to
build across the west. That means hot and mostly dry conditions
for eastern Idaho. A storm clips the central mountains tomorrow
night and Tuesday, which MAY kick off a few thunderstorms over
the central mountains and along the Divide. Right now, it`s hard
to say if they will happen or if all of the models are overzealous
due to the warm temperatures. We did include isolated storms in
the event something does develop. Even if they don`t, there will
be at least some afternoon and evening clouds in that area. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Both GFS and ECMWF in
agreement with the upper ridge over the Great Basin/norther Rockies
moving east toward the end of the week. This is in response to an
upper trof moving into the Pac NW on Thu. This pattern establishes
sw flow aloft and allows for limited subtropical moisture to flow
into ID. The result is for a chance of afternoon and evening tstms
beginning Thu and continuing through the weekend. The best chances
will be in the mtns...as usual. The increasing moisture...along with
a corresponding increase in cloud cover should shave a couple of
degrees off the max temps for the end of the week. Hedges

&&

.AVIATION...VFR weather continues over the next 24 hours. We
should see some afternoon clouds and MAYBE a storm across the
peaks of the central mountains tomorrow. However, nothing would
affect KSUN.  Keyes


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will equate to hot and mostly dry
conditions across central and eastern Idaho through midweek. A
storm clips the central mountains tomorrow night and Tuesday,
which COULD kick off isolated dry storms each afternoon and
evening across portions of the central mountains and along the
Divide toward Yellowstone. We say could because sometimes the
models do get overzealous and produce storms when it`s nothing
more than afternoon/evening clouds. Isolated storms are possible
again Wednesday mainly along the Divide. Monsoon moisture rotates
through and around the ridge for the end of the workweek. There
are still some subtle differences on just how much we will see
and the amount of storm coverage, mainly due to the models
bouncing around on what to do as the next storm moves inland. Even
with those differences, it does appear we will an increase in
thunderstorms with the initial round(s) being dry vs wet storms.
We saw thermal belt conditions last night in the mountains and
expect those to increase through midweek at least. Keyes

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 261526
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
926 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Upper level ridging is shifting northward over the
Great Basin with warmer air aloft moving into southwest Idaho and
southeast Oregon. Temperatures running around 10 degrees warmer
today than yesterday. Current forecast looks good with no updates
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds will be variable at
10 kts or less. Winds aloft through 10k ft MSL, variable 5-10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Upper level ridge will
continue to build into the area. Warmer temperatures across the
forecast area by about 10 degrees today, and about 10 more
degrees of warming expected for Monday. Only some high clouds
coming in from the southwest. Weak wave off the West Coast ripples
up in flow late Monday, but it looks far enough north and west
that any showers or thunderstorms would stay north of the
forecast area.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...Little change in the
weather pattern in the extended as an upper level ridge remains over
the Intermountain West. Expect hot conditions with this weather
pattern with high temperatures in the lower valleys in the mid to
upper 90s with the warmest locations around 100 degrees. Models
still showing several weak shortwaves moving over the Pacific
Northwest through the end of the week, but any moisture with these
systems will remain north of the forecast area. As these weak waves
move through the flow will see temperatures cool a few degrees, but
temperatures will warm again as the ridge rebuilds over the area.
Wednesday through the end of the week, models indicating monsoon
moisture will begin to move north, but differ on the timing and
location of this moisture. Current forecaster thinking is that with
the weather pattern that is over the region, if the moisture does
make it to our forecast area, best chance for precipitation will be
over southwest Idaho while southeast Oregon will remain dry. Another
source of moisture that could come into play for the weekend is
moisture off the California coast that could move northeast as an
upper level trough develops off the west coast.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...TB
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 260934
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
334 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednedsay.Current water vapor
imagery shows a high pressure ridge off the Oregon/Washington
coast. Look for high pressure ridging to build in across our area
today through Monday bringing a return to above normal
temperatures and continuing dry conditions. A disturbance will
move through the ridging late Monday into Tuesday bringing a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over the Central mountains
and the Montana border. Additionally, look for winds to slightly
increase across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be near
normal today and rise to above normal by Monday and continue to
be above normal through Wednesday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.Sub-tropical moisture
starts to work its way into the area Thursday and will remain
through Sunday. Expect a chance of afternoon isolated
thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Expect winds to increase
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through the area
on Sunday. Look for moderate to strong winds on Sunday as the cold
front moves through the area. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage may
increase to scattered on Saturday and possible Sunday for our Eastern
areas. However...confidence continues to be low for thunderstorm
coverage particularly for the weekend as models continue to change
slightly with each run. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the period. Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...VFR clear conditions will prevail under a dry west flow
aloft. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure positioned off the SW
California coast will gradually expand inland across the Great Basin
driving daytime highs 10 to 15 deg above normal early this week. A
weak low pressure system currently positioned off the Oregon coast
will shift inland over the top of the developing ridge
Monday/Tuesday producing a weak threat of isolated afternoon
thunderstorms mainly over the Idaho panhandle and extending as far
south as NRN Lemhi County. By mid-week, sub-tropical moisture is
expected to begin rotating north around the high and into SRN Idaho
providing a limited moisture feed for isolated thunderstorms but
lacking any real lifting mechanism until late Thursday or perhaps
Friday. The confidence here is low as the GFS model is not as
aggressive as yesterdays runs in bringing a Pacific trough
into/through the NW states Friday-Sunday opting for a more northerly
track with the incoming trough. This mornings operational run of the
GFS model resembles yesterdays European run while the most recent
European run is now looking a lot like yesterdays GFS run
highlighting a more amplified trough working into the NW states
Saturday. Thus, the best chance for thunderstorm activity is
expected to be Thursday night through Saturday with temperatures
remaining unseasonably warm but with moderately elevated humidity
due to the influx of sub-tropical moisture. Breezy conditions along
with some cooling may accompany the cold front/upper trough through
the region Sunday depending on the timing and track of the
trough. Huston

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 260921
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
321 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Upper level ridge will
continue to build into the area. Warmer temperatures across the
forecast area by about 10 degrees today, and about 10 more
degrees of warming expected for Monday. Only some high clouds
coming in from the southwest. Weak wave off the West Coast ripples
up in flow late Monday, but it looks far enough north and west
that any showers or thunderstorms would stay north of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday...Little change in the
weather pattern in the extended as an upper level ridge remains over
the Intermountain West. Expect hot conditions with this weather
pattern with high temperatures in the lower valleys in the mid to
upper 90s with the warmest locations around 100 degrees. Models
still showing several weak shortwaves moving over the Pacific
Northwest through the end of the week, but any moisture with these
systems will remain north of the forecast area. As these weak waves
move through the flow will see temperatures cool a few degrees, but
temperatures will warm again as the ridge rebuilds over the area.
Wednesday through the end of the week, models indicating monsoon
moisture will begin to move north, but differ on the timing and
location of this moisture. Current forecaster thinking is that with
the weather pattern that is over the region, if the moisture does
make it to our forecast area, best chance for precipitation will be
over southwest Idaho while southeast Oregon will remain dry. Another
source of moisture that could come into play for the weekend is
moisture off the California coast that could move northeast as an
upper level trough develops off the west coast.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds variable 10 knots
or less. Winds aloft southwest to west 5-15 knots up through 10K
feet MSL.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




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