Home > Products > State Listing > Idaho Data
Latest:
 AFDBOI |  AFDPIH |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 212052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KMYL.
SFC WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W
20-30 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP/AB
AVIATION.....SP



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 212007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH
AND EAST AND BY MIDNIGHT...THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE NEAR ISLAND
PARK. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF AND WILL CANCEL
THE WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SHORT BREAK FROM ANY SHOWERS. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 135W...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN INCREASES SHARPLY..TAKING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WELL NORTH TO THE PAN HANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CAN MOVE
INLAND. THAT GIVES THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A CHANCE WARM UP ABOUT
15 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE THREE DAYS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. WELCOME
TO FALL WEATHER. RS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
WINDY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...VERY LIKELY SNOW DOWN TO THE 6000
FT ELEVATION IN PLACES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THIS
FEATURE...AND HAVE HAD IT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE ECMWF TAKES A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. THE GFS IS THE
EXACT OPPOSITE WITH A LOW CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A
LARGE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT. NCEP HAS NOT
PREFERRED THE DRY ECMWF...BUT HAS SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN DONE...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FOR SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT CONSIDERED A PROBLEM FOR ANY AIRDROME...AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. NO SERIOUS IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON WED.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210947
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
347 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDTIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALLEYS LOW END VFR WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER 15Z.
MOUNTAINS WIDESPREAD MTNS OBSCURED AREAS MVFR CIG AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ABOVE 6500 FT AREAS IFR SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS...IMPROVING
AFTER 03Z. PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY WED...ALSO AFFECTING KMYL 10-15Z
WED. VFR PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 18Z WED. SURFACE WINDS NW AVERAGE
10-20 KTS...GUSTS TO 35KTS KTWF/KJER. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UP TO
10KTS AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT SW TO NW 20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM



000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210305
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
905 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CA
THIS EVENING WAS SEEN BEST IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS. THE
18Z AND EARLY 00Z MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THE LOW WELL
INITIALIZED AND ARE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS FORECAST TRACK
AND TIMING FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL ID IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND COULD EVEN SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
MTNS. PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM SE OREGON INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE
LOW WHICH WOULD INCLUDE THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL AND
BOISE MTNS. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON FRINGE
OF THE BEST DYNAMICS SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
WILL MAKE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO BETTER FIT THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z
WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z...
EXCEPT SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN OREGON TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO S 5-15 KTS
BECOMING W 10-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT
MSL...SW UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING W UP TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KPIH 210235
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
835 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND WITH DEEP SOUTH
FLOW OVER MOST OF EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS COLDEST TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST ENERGY STILL
OVER OREGON BUT CLOUD COVER FILLING IN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWED 20-30DBZ ECHOES OVER LEE EDGE OF
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL SIMILAR ECHOES
ADVANCING ON CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
STILL DEEP SO QUESTION OF HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING GROUND
BUT CANT RULE OUT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WEAK MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WESTERN
HALF OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE 06Z THEN FILLING IN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
THIS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER RUNS AND CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING FOR CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS. NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 202046
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
246 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL SWING ENE OVERNIGHT AND
PASS OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD OF 06Z TO 18Z
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LIKE A COLD SEASON SYSTEM...WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FORECAST FOR THE VALLEYS AND UP TO AN INCH IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SW IDAHO BETWEEN DAWN
AND NOON. WINDS WITH THE FRONT COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 30
KTS...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. WINDS NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 KTS. WITH
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIR...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DOWN NEAR NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS WED
RISING RIGHT BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LATE WED THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL
STREAM IN TO ERN OREGON FROM THE SW AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS ALONG EXTREME NW HARNEY COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
BAKER COUNTY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ADAMS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS
AN UPPER LOW SITS OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. AS THE LOW
STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW...PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO AND IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAKER AND HARNEY
COUNTIES IN OREGON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND
SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DETAILS. FOR NOW...NEAR CLIMO POPS REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SW THROUGH SE
AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN...INCREASE AND TURN WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SSW 25-35KTS AHEAD OF FRONT AND W AT 15-25 KTS BEHIND.
EXPECT RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KMYL. KMYL SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MVFR WITH BRIEF TIMES OF IFR TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KPIH 201952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

.AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 201952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

.AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201536
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
936 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS STILL SET TO BE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...FALLING AROUND 20 DEGREES TO
BECOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WITH AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH IN THE VALLEY AND
A HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST WINDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY. UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM MDT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED IFR CIGS TOMORROW IN SHOWERS. SFC WINDS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON TONIGHT
AND SW IDAHO TOMORROW BY NOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SE OREGON
ESPECIALLY NEAR KBNO AND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SW 20-25 KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST 20-30 KTS TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...KA
PREV LONG TERM....VM



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM
INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201002 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
402 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE NEAR 135W AND 40N WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CA AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON
AS THERE ARE NEGATIVE LI VALUES AND BUFR CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
500J/KG NEAR BURNS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS AND A SWATH OF IMPRESSIVE QPF AMOUNTS UP
TO 0.50-0.75 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 7000 FEET
MSL TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF LATE
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT
ELECTED NOT TO INTRODUCE THEM INTO THE FORECAST...AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE RE-DEVELOPING SW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STARTS TO
DETERIORATE FRIDAY AND BY SUNDAY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS IS OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE GEFS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SO
A GEFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING BY
LATE WEEKEND IS LOW. MOISTENING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED A COOL UPPER
TROUGH...PROBABLY SUNDAY. THEN LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRANSIENT RIDGE
MONDAY. INCREASED POPS AND SKY COVER FRIDAY WITH THE BIT FASTER
EC/GEFS TIMING. FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...WENT WITH A BIT BELOW CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. MAIN CHANGE THIS PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE
POPS/QPF LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15KT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 25-40KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....VM
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 200840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE TOWARD IDAHO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ALL DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 10000 FEET BUT
QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING AS
MUCH WIND BECAUSE IT HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE DRIER GFS
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
FOR NOW FAVORING THE LESS WINDY NAM BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE THROUGH OREGON AND POSSIBLY
CLICK PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THOUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...MAY SEE TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY TUE MORN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...
SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 200840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE TOWARD IDAHO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ALL DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 10000 FEET BUT
QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING AS
MUCH WIND BECAUSE IT HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE DRIER GFS
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
FOR NOW FAVORING THE LESS WINDY NAM BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE THROUGH OREGON AND POSSIBLY
CLICK PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THOUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...MAY SEE TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY TUE MORN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...
SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT FOR CLEAR AND MILD
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW FOLLOWING TODAY/S HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO NEAR 70 IN THE
MTNS. THE 18Z MODELS REMAIN LOCKED ON FOR TUESDAY/S SYSTEM
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. NO UPDATES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON MONDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
850-700MB LAYER SHOULD MIX DOWN TO BRING AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS TO
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY. OTHERWISE ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN OREGON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IDAHO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHERE THE ECM/GFS
DIVERGE FROM THE NAM IN THAT THE NAM TAKES THE S/W ENHANCED AREA
SEEN ON THE CURRENT IR SAT PICS OFF THE WEST COAST DUE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH...ECM/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND
OF PUSHING IT INTO NW NEVADA THEN NE INTO CENTRAL IDAHO...THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS/0.10 INCHES/ AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW/ ABV 7000 FEET/ TO THE IDAHO ZONES WITH ONLY
AREAS OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OREGON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREA EXPECTED. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE FASTER
GFS BRINGING IN A TROUGH FOR SATURDAY VERSUS THE ECMWF TIMING OF
LATE SUNDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...CR
PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities