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000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 210941
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS FINALLY
SHOWING SIGNS OF PUNCHING NORTHWARD AS THE MODELS HAVE PROMISED.
BOGUS BASIN IS ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WEB CAM INDICATES RAIN. KMYL
IS STILL SNOWING...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN SHORTLY. THE WSW WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3 AM WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS STILL FALLING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...
AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS A WARM MOIST
FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALOFT. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES A BREAK
THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...INCLUDING BOISE. BUT THEN PRECIP
SPREADS BACK INTO THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE A
STRONG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WE HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS DUE TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATING
LESS WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY. AS WE MOVE INTO
TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS MOVE BACK DOWN AND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES SHARPLY MONDAY
AND TEMPS WILL COOL FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY IN SE
OREGON...THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS OF IDAHO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO GO
INTO EFFECT AT 8 AM MST AND RUN UNTIL 5 PM MST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
RIDGE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO AGREE ON TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD FROM NW TO SE LATE WED
NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT DROPPING TO 2000 FT BY
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA QUITE QUICKLY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION STILL EXIST IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
BUT AS THOSE AREAS TURN TO RAIN THIS MORNING...EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS/CEILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NW
WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD...AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT...NW AT 50-70 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
     /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210941
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
241 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS FINALLY
SHOWING SIGNS OF PUNCHING NORTHWARD AS THE MODELS HAVE PROMISED.
BOGUS BASIN IS ABOVE FREEZING AND THE WEB CAM INDICATES RAIN. KMYL
IS STILL SNOWING...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN SHORTLY. THE WSW WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3 AM WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS STILL FALLING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...
AND WE EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS A WARM MOIST
FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALOFT. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES A BREAK
THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...INCLUDING BOISE. BUT THEN PRECIP
SPREADS BACK INTO THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE A
STRONG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WE HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS DUE TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATING
LESS WARMING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TODAY. AS WE MOVE INTO
TONIGHT...SNOW LEVELS MOVE BACK DOWN AND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DECREASES SHARPLY MONDAY
AND TEMPS WILL COOL FURTHER. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY IN SE
OREGON...THE SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS OF IDAHO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS STILL ON TRACK TO GO
INTO EFFECT AT 8 AM MST AND RUN UNTIL 5 PM MST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
RIDGE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO AGREE ON TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD FROM NW TO SE LATE WED
NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT DROPPING TO 2000 FT BY
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA QUITE QUICKLY SO CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ONCE
AGAIN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION STILL EXIST IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
BUT AS THOSE AREAS TURN TO RAIN THIS MORNING...EXPECTING SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS/CEILING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NW
WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD...AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT...NW AT 50-70 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
     /4 PM PST/ THIS AFTERNOON ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 210400
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
900 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO HELP
PRODUCE LARGE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW OUR FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO BRING
WARM TEMPS THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE
NIGHT...CLOSE TO THE FORECAST...SO IT WILL NOT BE UPDATED AT THIS
TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MTNS UNTIL 11 PM MST. IS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A FEW MORE
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED IFR
WITH SNOW. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS
EVENING RISING TO 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SE TO SW 10-20
KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO TO WESTERLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...NORTHWEST 50-70 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OWYHEE AND TWIN
FALLS COUNTIES IN IDAHO. ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH
SUNDAY IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA. PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER. WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 202206
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OYHWEE AND TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES IN IDAHO.  ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH SUNDAY
IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA.  PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE COAST.  SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF WINTER.  WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT RISING
TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 7000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KT IN SE OREGON...
SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN BAKER COUNTY...
THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS IN SE OREGON WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 25-
35KT BECOMING NW 45-70 KT BY 00Z SUNDAY...STRONGEST IN OREGON...
THEN BECOMING NW 60-80KT BY 09Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     AVALANCHE WARNING IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA FROM 5 AM MST
     SUNDAY UNTIL 730 AM MST MONDAY.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 202206
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY PCPN AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN LATE TONIGHT BELOW 7000 FEET MSL.  VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY SPEEDS SUNDAY IN ALL SOUTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING SRN PARTS
OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...AND OYHWEE AND TWIN FALLS
COUNTIES IN IDAHO.  ALSO...AVALANCHE DANGER WILL BECOME HIGH SUNDAY
IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA.  PCPN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER WINDS CHANGE TO NORTHWESTERLY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OFF THE COAST.  SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF WINTER.  WINTER BEGINS AT 403 PM MST SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION.
THIS SETUP ALLOWS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WELL EAST
OF THE AREA. TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST WILL TEMPORARILY DEFLECT THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BEFORE DROPPING CHRISTMAS DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS WITH THIS COLD FRONT...WITH A CHANCE OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DANCING AROUND
NORMAL. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TIMING OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL BRING ARE STILL
UNCLEAR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT RISING
TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 7000 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KT IN SE OREGON...
SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN BAKER COUNTY...
THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND THE TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS IN SE OREGON WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...WESTERLY 25-
35KT BECOMING NW 45-70 KT BY 00Z SUNDAY...STRONGEST IN OREGON...
THEN BECOMING NW 60-80KT BY 09Z SUN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ011.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY IDZ015-029-030.
     AVALANCHE WARNING IN THE SAWTOOTH RECREATION AREA FROM 5 AM MST
     SUNDAY UNTIL 730 AM MST MONDAY.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MST /7 AM PST/ TO 5 PM MST /4 PM PST/
     SUNDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 202129
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
229 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS TRANSPORTING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE NW US TODAY..AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
GETTING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY MILD
TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. THE CENTRAL
MTNS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT...WHILE
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT.
VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN. THE EASTERN PAC RIDGE
BUILDS BACK UP ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC NW
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE FEED...WHILE
DIMINISHING PRECIP ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE MTNS WILL
STILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH REDUCED
AMOUNTS. PRECIP WILL DIMINSH OVERALL BY MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.

SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUN MORN ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY AFTN...WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO 45
MPH. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU SUN EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
MOIST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHRISTMAS
DAY BEING WET. HOWEVER...THEY STILL DISAGREE ON TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVING EVERYONE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS DAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SNOW LEVELS AROUND
5000 TO 5500 FEET. EXPECT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO IFR/MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING  THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING. CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KIDA MAY BE
THE ONLY EXCEPTION AS MODELS ARE KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KIDA
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 201619
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FETCH BEGAN STEADY PCPN IN OUR
CWA A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.  MAIN MOISTURE SURGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR 140W.  IN
THE MEANTIME OUR CWA WILL GET PCPN ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HEAVIEST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET MSL TODAY...5500
FEET MSL TONIGHT...AND 6000 FEET MSL SUNDAY.  WET SNOW OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE THAT...AND HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MSL.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WE MAY EXTEND IT
INTO SUNDAY BASED ON NEW 12Z MODEL DATA.  BUT FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000FT THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS...SW 15-25 KTS IN
SE OREGON...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN
BAKER...MAGIC VALLEY...AND TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 35-45KT BECOMING NW 50-60 KT BY 03Z SUN AND NW 60-
80KT BY 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200 PERCENT/
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING
AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN
4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY WINDS OF
30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES
IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS
AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND PRECIPITATION PROCESS
BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON MTN VALLEY SNOW
TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS
HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING
OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD THERE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201619
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
919 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOIST WESTERLY FETCH BEGAN STEADY PCPN IN OUR
CWA A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.  MAIN MOISTURE SURGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES NEAR 140W.  IN
THE MEANTIME OUR CWA WILL GET PCPN ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HEAVIEST THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BELOW 5000 FEET MSL TODAY...5500
FEET MSL TONIGHT...AND 6000 FEET MSL SUNDAY.  WET SNOW OR MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW ABOVE THAT...AND HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MSL.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WE MAY EXTEND IT
INTO SUNDAY BASED ON NEW 12Z MODEL DATA.  BUT FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR IN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4000FT THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SUN. SURFACE WINDS...SW 15-25 KTS IN
SE OREGON...SW 5-15KT IN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND SE 10-15KT IN
BAKER...MAGIC VALLEY...AND TREASURE VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WESTERLY 35-45KT BECOMING NW 50-60 KT BY 03Z SUN AND NW 60-
80KT BY 15Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200 PERCENT/
AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION LATER
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE MORNING
AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN
4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WITH A
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY WINDS OF
30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO 6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES
IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS
AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND PRECIPITATION PROCESS
BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE
PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND
MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON MTN VALLEY SNOW
TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS
HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING
OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD THERE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200
PERCENT/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION
LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE
MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START
OUT BETWEEN 4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO
6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND
PRECIPITATION PROCESS BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON
MTN VALLEY SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE
ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD
THERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN. AS SATURDAY
WEARS ON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500 NOW AND WILL
RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO AROUND
21/06Z. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KTS IN SE OREGON...AND SE AROUND 10
KTS IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 25-35 KTS...SHIFTING
TO NW 45-55 KTS AFTER 21/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 201030
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
STRETCHING BACK TO THE DATELINE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW TODAY.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL /150-200
PERCENT/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT WARM-AIR ADVECTION
LATER TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN ACROSS SE OREGON BY LATE
MORNING AND SW IDAHO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START
OUT BETWEEN 4-5K FEET. THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
WESTERLY WINDS OF 30-60 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS TO
6-7K FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MAXIMIZE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES IN THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO. SW IDAHO VALLEYS AND SE OREGON COULD SEE A SHORT BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WARM ADVECTION WANES AND
PRECIPITATION PROCESS BECOMES MAINLY OROGRAPHIC. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO LOWER VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS PEAK MIDDAY SUNDAY AND MAY START TO EDGE DOWN SOME IN THE
WEST CENTRAL MTNS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHER FORECAST SNOW
LEVELS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE CUT DOWN ON
MTN VALLEY SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOISE MTNS AND
CAMAS PRAIRIE. THUS HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THESE
ZONES. ALSO THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS SO HAVE SHORTENED UP THE ADVISORY PERIOD
THERE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER THIS RIDGE...AND MODELS VARY AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND THUS...HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
STAYS.  THE ECMWF BRINGS BACK PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
ENTIRE AREA DRY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FLATTENING THE RIDGE...SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF...AND
THE GFS IS WARMER. THEREFORE...TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHETHER OR NOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT TROUGH PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING IN. AS SATURDAY
WEARS ON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 4500 NOW AND WILL
RISE TO 9000FT IN SE OREGON AND 5500 FT IN CENTRAL IDAHO AROUND
21/06Z. SURFACE WINDS...SW 10-20 KTS IN SE OREGON...AND SE AROUND 10
KTS IN IDAHO. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...W 25-35 KTS...SHIFTING
TO NW 45-55 KTS AFTER 21/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST
     THIS EVENING IDZ011.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 200950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. VERY STRONG JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC WILL DRIVE IN
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL START OUT AT ABOUT 5 THOUSAND FEET
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT ALL LOCATIONS EARLY TONIGHT ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET AND POSSIBLE OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7 THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STORM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ARE LIKELY. EXPECT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH COOLING EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. MODELS STILL AGREE ON GENERAL
PATTERN BUT GFS/PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF STILL ALL DIFFER ON DETAILS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. RIDGE IN PLACE TUE FOR DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. CHRISTMAS SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH PACNW ACROSS EAST IDAHO
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH SFC/700MB FEATURES. ECMWF FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
PARALLEL GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP. ECMWF AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE PARALLEL GFS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. GFS HOLDS ON TO WARMER AIR WITH COLD TEMPS
ARRIVING DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS FAVOR TRANSITORY RIDGE FOR
FRI/SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE PACNW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH
HOLDS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
VERY MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH PACNW AS ADVERTISED TODAY.
PRECIP RETURNS TO CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO THIS AFTN/EVE. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN LEADING EDGES OF CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WARM TEMPS KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. KSUN LIKELY ALL SNOW WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS ONCE PRECIP STARTS. KIDA SHIFTING FROM VFR/MVFR
TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. KBYI/KPIH BOTH STAY
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH IFR CEILINGS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 200950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. VERY STRONG JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC WILL DRIVE IN
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL START OUT AT ABOUT 5 THOUSAND FEET
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT ALL LOCATIONS EARLY TONIGHT ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET AND POSSIBLE OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7 THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STORM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ARE LIKELY. EXPECT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH COOLING EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. MODELS STILL AGREE ON GENERAL
PATTERN BUT GFS/PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF STILL ALL DIFFER ON DETAILS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. RIDGE IN PLACE TUE FOR DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. CHRISTMAS SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH PACNW ACROSS EAST IDAHO
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH SFC/700MB FEATURES. ECMWF FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
PARALLEL GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP. ECMWF AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE PARALLEL GFS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. GFS HOLDS ON TO WARMER AIR WITH COLD TEMPS
ARRIVING DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS FAVOR TRANSITORY RIDGE FOR
FRI/SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE PACNW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH
HOLDS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
VERY MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH PACNW AS ADVERTISED TODAY.
PRECIP RETURNS TO CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO THIS AFTN/EVE. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN LEADING EDGES OF CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WARM TEMPS KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. KSUN LIKELY ALL SNOW WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS ONCE PRECIP STARTS. KIDA SHIFTING FROM VFR/MVFR
TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. KBYI/KPIH BOTH STAY
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH IFR CEILINGS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 200325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA. THIS HANDLED IN THE
CURRENT PACKAGE SO NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THATS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING COPIOUS AMTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MOIST CONNECTION
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE RAPIDLY...SO BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW
HIGH ARE THEY EXPECTED TO GO AND THEREFORE THE SNOW AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH WHAT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN WHATS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WOULD ALSO CHANGE SNOW TOTALS AND THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY OUT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. WILL LET THE
MIDSHIFT DO AND LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL. AREAS OF MVFR
SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY/BAKER
COUNTIES AFTER 06Z...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4500 FT MSL SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE REACHING 8000 FEET ACROSS SE OREGON AND 5000
FEET NEAR MCCALL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SWITCH TO RAIN BY
06Z SUNDAY AT KMYL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. MOSTLY MVFR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200325
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
825 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE EXIT THE AREA. THIS HANDLED IN THE
CURRENT PACKAGE SO NOT PLANNING ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM THATS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING COPIOUS AMTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A MOIST CONNECTION
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS RISE RAPIDLY...SO BIGGEST CONCERN IS HOW
HIGH ARE THEY EXPECTED TO GO AND THEREFORE THE SNOW AMOUNTS. AGREE
WITH WHAT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN WHATS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WOULD ALSO CHANGE SNOW TOTALS AND THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY OUT
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. WILL LET THE
MIDSHIFT DO AND LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 06Z. SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL. AREAS OF MVFR
SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 5000 FT MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY/BAKER
COUNTIES AFTER 06Z...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4500 FT MSL SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE REACHING 8000 FEET ACROSS SE OREGON AND 5000
FEET NEAR MCCALL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SWITCH TO RAIN BY
06Z SUNDAY AT KMYL REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. MOSTLY MVFR RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...CR
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JT/AB




000
FXUS65 KPIH 200212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
712 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING AS
RAIN HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW IN THE UPPER VALLEY WITH DECREASING
RADAR RETURNS/PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE
INTO THE NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN
SLOPES CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE
HEAVY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
BY SAT NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
MTNS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS
TO BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ018.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 200212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
712 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING AS
RAIN HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW IN THE UPPER VALLEY WITH DECREASING
RADAR RETURNS/PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE
INTO THE NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN
SLOPES CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE
HEAVY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
BY SAT NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
MTNS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS
TO BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ018.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KBOI 192213
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z AREAS OF MVFR SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 3500 FT
MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY COUNTY...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FT MSL.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-
25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SOUTH OF A KBNO-KONO LINE. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY
OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192213
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG AND WET
WINTER STORM IS ON ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TOMORROW THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND CAMAS PRAIRIE. SEE THE ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT WILL RISE RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS NEAR MCCALL WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE GOING
WITH A FORECAST THAT CHANGES IT TO A MIX SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS THE SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR SHOULD IT REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 9 INCHES
IN MCCALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING CLOSER TO 15 INCHES
SHOULD IT REMAIN ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY INCREASE MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECT TO LAST INTO THE EVENING. AS
SNOW LEVELS RISE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN PLACES
LIKE BOGUS BASIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND REMAIN ALL RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...RIDGES ABOVE
AROUND 6000 FEET IN ERN OREGON AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SW IDAHO
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH EVEN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTALS IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH
TOTALS...OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS...OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH RIVER FLOODING
OWING TO THE PRESENT CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT
DECREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SNOW LEVELS
RANGING FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH. ON
MONDAY SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
UNDER DRIER MORE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE. MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 4500 FEET OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO UP TO 7000 FEET ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD MOIST SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE AS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 3000 FT UNTIL
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AFTER 06Z AREAS OF MVFR SNOW...AND RAIN BELOW 3500 FT
MSL...WILL SPREAD INTO HARNEY COUNTY...THEN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 12Z. AFTER 18Z EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FT MSL.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 15-
25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON SOUTH OF A KBNO-KONO LINE. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY
OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ011-013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
     IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JT/AB
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 191659
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
959 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...WET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA TODAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST ALREADY
COVERS THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WELL...SO NO UPDATES
THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN WETTER
WITH RAPIDLY CLIMBING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL ON THE SKI AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TURN TO RAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AS RAIN SUNDAY. LATEST INFORMATION
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS WELL-ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THEREFORE WE ARE GOING TO GO WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE ARE ALSO CONSIDERING AN
ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND ALSO THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND BOISE MTNS. IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL FALL BEFORE
THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS. DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...WITH SNOW ABOVE 4500 FT MSL...
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS TODAY...CONTINUING TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KMYL BUT IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAISE
SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8000 FT IN SE OREGON AND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO 20-30 KTS FOR AREAS ABOVE 4000 FT MSL
AND 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS ABOVE 6000 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS
ARRIVES TODAY...BRINGING STEADY RAINS TO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY/
ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL
MOVE INTO SE OREGON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN INTO MOST OF
SW IDAHO BY MID-MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL ON TRACK...WITH
GENERALLY 0.10-0.25 INCHES RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3500 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO
4000-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DEPART THIS EVENING FOR DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE SECOND AND MUCH WETTER SYSTEM /WHICH WILL BRING COPIOUS
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/ WILL SPREAD
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL AVERAGE 3000 FEET IN THE MORNING AND
RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SE OREGON /INCLUDING BURNS
AND BAKER CITY/ BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...A MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED
PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEARLY 9000 FT IN SE OREGON AND AROUND 6000 FT IN CENTRAL
IDAHO. IN THE VALLEYS...A STEADY RAIN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING NEARLY A HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WHILE THE
HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 24
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE...IN LOWER MOUNTAIN AREAS...SNOW WILL
TURN TO RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL MELT PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL. ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OFF OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PUSHING MOISTURE
TO OUR NORTH AND DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MID DAY. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND FLATTENING OUT THAT RIDGE AND BRINGING THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW. AT THIS POINT...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SNOW LEVELS AND
TEMPERATURES. THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LEAVING THE AREA
IN A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP




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