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000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201730
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1030 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A SPLIT
TROUGH MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SE OREGON HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN
FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT WINTER STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOWER VALLEY
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION. HOW MUCH OF THE COLD AIR
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 201034
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO. LOOK FOR THIS
RIDGING TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOOK FOR SLIGHT WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOOK FOR A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WET...PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BE THE
BIGGEST IMPACT PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
EXPECT A TRACE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR VALLEYS. MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. THUS...A WINTER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EVEN STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL MORE
DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRTY NORTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWING STRONG/WET EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE PACNW AND IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WETTEST SYSTEM AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AGAIN. GFS MAINTAINS SLOW BUILD OF
RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL STATES...DRIVING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS IDAHO FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. ECMWF STRONGLY SHARPENS TROUGH ACROSS IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AND DROPPING IT INTO THE GREAT BASIN THANKSGIVING. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER/COLDER FOR WED/THU. LITTLE
HELP WITH BROAD SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.
MAINTAINED POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AND A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. INVERSIONS STRONGEST WEST OF BYI/TWF BUT CANT RULE
OUT POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG WORKING INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTWAVE AXIS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA THIS MORNING
PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MODELS WORK SHORTWAVE THROUGH EAST
IDAHO MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
WE SHOULD SEE. NAM/NAM BUFR WETTEST IN LOW LEVELS AND MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
VCSH MENTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN SNOW DESPITE SOME WEAK WARMING THROUGH SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 201034
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO. LOOK FOR THIS
RIDGING TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOOK FOR SLIGHT WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOOK FOR A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WET...PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BE THE
BIGGEST IMPACT PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
EXPECT A TRACE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR VALLEYS. MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. THUS...A WINTER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EVEN STRONGER IN THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL MORE
DIFFICULT PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRTY NORTHWEST
FLOW FOLLOWING STRONG/WET EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE PACNW AND IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WETTEST SYSTEM AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AGAIN. GFS MAINTAINS SLOW BUILD OF
RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL STATES...DRIVING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS IDAHO FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. ECMWF STRONGLY SHARPENS TROUGH ACROSS IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AND DROPPING IT INTO THE GREAT BASIN THANKSGIVING. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER/COLDER FOR WED/THU. LITTLE
HELP WITH BROAD SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.
MAINTAINED POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AND A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF EXTENDED. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO IN DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW. INVERSIONS STRONGEST WEST OF BYI/TWF BUT CANT RULE
OUT POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG WORKING INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORTWAVE AXIS ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM NEVADA THIS MORNING
PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. MODELS WORK SHORTWAVE THROUGH EAST
IDAHO MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIFFERING IDEAS ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
WE SHOULD SEE. NAM/NAM BUFR WETTEST IN LOW LEVELS AND MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIP AS SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
VCSH MENTION WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN SNOW DESPITE SOME WEAK WARMING THROUGH SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 201012
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 20/18Z. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH PRECIP WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL WEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN INVERSION CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MIXING CONTINUES WEAK.  STRONG NORTH PACIFIC STORM
WILL COME INLAND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PLENTY OF MIXING
AND ALSO DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.  THIS STORM WILL
SCOUR THE INVERSION AND GREATLY IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 201012
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...WEAK PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
AND LOCAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO OREGON ZONES AND OWYHEE COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NE.  SWRN IDAHO WILL GET A LITTLE
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
LESS THAN A HALF IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM
IS TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE SURFACE INVERSION BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN ALL AREAS.  PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE THE SNOW SURFACE SO TONIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT.  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE LIKE THOSE OF TODAY WITH THE INVERSION CONTINUING.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG PACIFIC STORM COMES
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM IS
STILL POISED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE EVENT BEGINNING AS SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS
IN SE OREGON SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BREAK THE TREASURE VALLEY INVERSION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS QUICK MIXING...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE NOON SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN
AFTER NOON. FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN HAVE BEEN
LOWERED GIVEN THE CHANCE THAT A FREEZING RAIN EVENT MAY HINDER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.


SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
THE AREA REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THE IMPACT AND TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS NOT
CERTAIN...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  CHANCE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 20/18Z. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH PRECIP WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL WEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN INVERSION CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MIXING CONTINUES WEAK.  STRONG NORTH PACIFIC STORM
WILL COME INLAND SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PLENTY OF MIXING
AND ALSO DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING ALOFT.  THIS STORM WILL
SCOUR THE INVERSION AND GREATLY IMPROVE AIR QUALITY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200408
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
908 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SE
OREGON THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY RUNS FROM ABOUT
10Z TO 18Z WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG A LINE FROM BURNS
OREGON...TO ONTARIO TO MCCALL. ALSO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE
DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANYTHING
WITH THIS ONE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF FAST UNDER THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT THAT TREND WILL SLOW OR COME TO A STOP AS CLOUDS
THICKEN UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE AN UPDATE TO TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND TO ADD PATCHY FOG...WHICH
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MTN HOME AND ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY
FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM KMUO TO KONO. LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...IMPROVING BY 18Z EXCEPT AT
KMYL AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...FIRST IN HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS BAKER/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. IT COULD BRING A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL TO
THE TREASURE VALLEY /MAINLY BOISE WESTWARD/ DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE THURSDAY...THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BYPASS OUR FORECAST
AREA TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN STILL ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DIFFER ON AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. ALSO CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IF VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BREAK OR NOT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SNOW FALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX...BUT IF THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE LOWER VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS MAY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 200408
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
908 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SE
OREGON THIS EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY RUNS FROM ABOUT
10Z TO 18Z WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG A LINE FROM BURNS
OREGON...TO ONTARIO TO MCCALL. ALSO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE
DUSTING TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL
LOOKING LIKE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANYTHING
WITH THIS ONE. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF FAST UNDER THIN HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT THAT TREND WILL SLOW OR COME TO A STOP AS CLOUDS
THICKEN UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE AN UPDATE TO TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND TO ADD PATCHY FOG...WHICH
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN MTN HOME AND ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY
FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM KMUO TO KONO. LIGHT
SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF IFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...IMPROVING BY 18Z EXCEPT AT
KMYL AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...FIRST IN HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS BAKER/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. IT COULD BRING A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL TO
THE TREASURE VALLEY /MAINLY BOISE WESTWARD/ DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE THURSDAY...THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BYPASS OUR FORECAST
AREA TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN STILL ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DIFFER ON AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. ALSO CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IF VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BREAK OR NOT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SNOW FALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX...BUT IF THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE LOWER VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS MAY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192158
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
258 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...FIRST IN HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS BAKER/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. IT COULD BRING A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL TO
THE TREASURE VALLEY /MAINLY BOISE WESTWARD/ DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE THURSDAY...THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BYPASS OUR FORECAST
AREA TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN STILL ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DIFFER ON AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. ALSO CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IF VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BREAK OR NOT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SNOW FALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX...BUT IF THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE LOWER VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS MAY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND HAZE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMAN
TO KONO. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS SNOW SPREAD OVER THE REGION
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS SURFACE TO AROUND 5K
FEET MSL SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST ABOVE 5K FEET MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL...AND WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN AND THE
MIXING HEIGHT MAY RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET AGL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM BOISE EASTWARD...BUT THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN
STRONG WITH THE MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 1000 FEET IN THE VALLEY WEST
OF BOISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 192158
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
258 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN EXIT
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...FIRST IN HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS BAKER/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND FINALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. IT COULD BRING A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL TO
THE TREASURE VALLEY /MAINLY BOISE WESTWARD/ DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER SOUTHERN
OREGON LATE THURSDAY...THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BYPASS OUR FORECAST
AREA TO THE SOUTH...BUT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN STILL ON TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DIFFER ON AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. ALSO CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IF VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BREAK OR NOT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SNOW FALLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY. IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS LOWER VALLEYS COULD SEE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX...BUT IF THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE LOWER VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN ALL SNOW BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS MAY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY
BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE. SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND HAZE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMAN
TO KONO. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS SNOW SPREAD OVER THE REGION
MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS SURFACE TO AROUND 5K
FEET MSL SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST ABOVE 5K FEET MSL.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL...AND WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE INVERSION MAY WEAKEN AND THE
MIXING HEIGHT MAY RISE TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET AGL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM BOISE EASTWARD...BUT THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN
STRONG WITH THE MIXING HEIGHT BELOW 1000 FEET IN THE VALLEY WEST
OF BOISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/AB
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...BW



000
FXUS65 KPIH 192007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
107 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN BREAKING WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. EXPECT MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME VERY WEAK
PACIFIC SYSTEMS BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO
ABOUT 5500 FEET EARLY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BUT WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS COULD BE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE. THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...PRE-THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE VALLEY SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS WAVES CROSS OVER EASTERN IDAHO. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE
WOULD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE OFF A BIT ON
TIMING. AS WE REACH MIDWEEK...THE MODELS HAVE VARIED WIDELY. THE GFS
KEEPS THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR THE MOST. THE ECMWF DROPS A VERY STRONG STORM INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON EARLIER ENSEMBLES...THERE
SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT ON SOMETHING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A PATTERN CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST THE SAME AND SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...FAVORING HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES...SO BLOWING SNOW COULD REMAIN A PERSISTENT ISSUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IN THE VALLEYS...IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF
RAIN/SNOW IN THOSE AREAS. BOTTOM LINE...IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR
THANKSGIVING YOU WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THE SITUATION DAILY TO
SEE IF YOUR TRAVEL DAY IS GREATLY IMPACTED OR NOT.  KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH NO RESIDUAL STRATUS OR FOG. WE WILL SEE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW WE ARE GOING WITH VCSH AND
VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. THE CROSS SECTIONS DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM IS OVERHEAD. WE AREN`T
TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT HAPPENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY SITES
WHERE RAIN WOULD FALL AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF INDEED THOSE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 192007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
107 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN BREAKING WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. EXPECT MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME VERY WEAK
PACIFIC SYSTEMS BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO RISE TO
ABOUT 5500 FEET EARLY ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING BUT WITH THIS SYSTEM
STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS COULD BE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE. THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...PRE-THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SNOW GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE VALLEY SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW AS WAVES CROSS OVER EASTERN IDAHO. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE
WOULD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE OFF A BIT ON
TIMING. AS WE REACH MIDWEEK...THE MODELS HAVE VARIED WIDELY. THE GFS
KEEPS THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE FALLING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FOR THE MOST. THE ECMWF DROPS A VERY STRONG STORM INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. BASED ON EARLIER ENSEMBLES...THERE
SEEMS TO BE AGREEMENT ON SOMETHING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A PATTERN CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST THE SAME AND SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...FAVORING HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES...SO BLOWING SNOW COULD REMAIN A PERSISTENT ISSUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IN THE VALLEYS...IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF
RAIN/SNOW IN THOSE AREAS. BOTTOM LINE...IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR
THANKSGIVING YOU WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THE SITUATION DAILY TO
SEE IF YOUR TRAVEL DAY IS GREATLY IMPACTED OR NOT.  KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH NO RESIDUAL STRATUS OR FOG. WE WILL SEE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW WE ARE GOING WITH VCSH AND
VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. THE CROSS SECTIONS DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM IS OVERHEAD. WE AREN`T
TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT HAPPENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE VALLEY SITES
WHERE RAIN WOULD FALL AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO DETERMINE IF INDEED THOSE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 191657
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR MUCH OF
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PATCHY DENSE
FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TO THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE AND IFR CEILINGS IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KONO-KMAN.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS SURFACE TO 5K FEET MSL
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL.

TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL...AND WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 191657
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
957 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPPER
TREASURE VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED FOR MUCH OF
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL PATCHY DENSE
FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW TO THE TREASURE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND HAZE AND IFR CEILINGS IN THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY FROM KONO-KMAN.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
THICKENING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS SURFACE TO 5K FEET MSL
BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ABOVE 5K FEET MSL.

TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL...AND WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE INVERSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
AIR STAGNATION...BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191031
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG AND HAZE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
OTHER VALLEY SITES. FOG/HAZE AREAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY ROUGHLY
19/20Z BUT COULD AGAIN RETURN TO LIFR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT NW AT 15-25KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191031
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG AND HAZE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
OTHER VALLEY SITES. FOG/HAZE AREAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY ROUGHLY
19/20Z BUT COULD AGAIN RETURN TO LIFR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT NW AT 15-25KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191031
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG AND HAZE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
OTHER VALLEY SITES. FOG/HAZE AREAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY ROUGHLY
19/20Z BUT COULD AGAIN RETURN TO LIFR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT NW AT 15-25KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 191031
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
330 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER IN ELMORE COUNTY AND ALSO IN THE LOWER
MALHEUR VALLEY IN OREGON.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ZONES LISTED BELOW.  HIGHER CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD OUR CWA AND TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS YESTERDAY. BUT THE SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES AND
VALLEY TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL RISE.  TEMPS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET MSL WILL WARM A
FEW DEGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS THE NEXT WEAK PACIFIC STORM COMES INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS RAIN IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS THURSDAY BUT MIXING WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR THE
INVERSION FROM THE LOWER VALLEYS SO SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED INSTEAD.  SNOWFALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND AN INCH OR LESS IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.  LESS
THAN ONE INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE TREASURE VALLEY BUT EVEN THAT
AMOUNT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING AS THERE IS
ALREADY ICE ON MANY ROADS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL EXIST FOR THE LONG TERM. AS THURSDAY
EVENING WEARS ON THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND WITH THE
INVERSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED AT VALLEY FLOORS INITIALLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS THE COLD FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAY PUSH 4000 FT SO MANY AREAS MAY SWITCH TO RAIN BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT OF
LEAVING THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.  EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING PRECIP...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR. CURRENT FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG AND HAZE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
OTHER VALLEY SITES. FOG/HAZE AREAS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY ROUGHLY
19/20Z BUT COULD AGAIN RETURN TO LIFR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT NW AT 15-25KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KPIH 191015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE
ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LOOK FOR A
WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING VERY LIGHT SNOW MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS PACIFIC
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH ONSET OF
PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE PAC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING. FORECAST WAS ALREADY
ON TRACK FOR A WET WEEKEND. THUS HAVE ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS
TO POPS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW UNTIL SNOW LEVELS
LIFT ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS. THE LAST OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY LEAVING US WITH A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE A TYPICAL
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETUP. WE SHOULD THUS CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
CONTINUE OVER THE SAWTOOTH RANGE AND THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE
SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA
AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF BLOWING SNOW. HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER CLOUD DECK KEEPING FOG/STRATUS FROM
DEVELOPING THUS FAR. SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOWING DRIER/WARMER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. A PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. THUS EXPECTING LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 190359
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
ACTING TO SLOW COOLING ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
IN TURN THIS IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT ADVISORY AS DENSE FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
WAINING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAISE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THE TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMUO TO KONO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190359
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
ACTING TO SLOW COOLING ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
IN TURN THIS IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT ADVISORY AS DENSE FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
WAINING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAISE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THE TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMUO TO KONO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190359
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
ACTING TO SLOW COOLING ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
IN TURN THIS IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT ADVISORY AS DENSE FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
WAINING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAISE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THE TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMUO TO KONO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 190359
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
859 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS
ACTING TO SLOW COOLING ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS EVENING.
IN TURN THIS IS SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN THE LOWER
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
OVERNIGHT SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO CURRENT ADVISORY AS DENSE FOG
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
WAINING GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAISE SOME LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL PERSIST IN THE TREASURE VALLEY FROM KMUO TO KONO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
HIGH CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT...WEST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 182159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
259 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRATUS AND FOG HAVE
ERODED ON THE EDGES...WITH SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BETWEEN 1 AND 3
MILES BETWEEN BOISE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP AND
THE STRATUS TO EXPAND IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN ONTARIO AND MOUNTAIN HOME THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. INVERSION WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS WHICH WOULD MAKE IT 4
DAYS IN A ROW WITH RECORD LOWS IN BOISE. THERE ARE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL EFFECTS
ON TEMPERATURES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
IN ON WEDNESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS. IT IS NOW
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THUS THE INVERSION WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT SPREADS PRECIPITATION TO ALL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW IN THE TREASURE VALLEY THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARM AIR ALOFT MIXES OUT THE COLD AIR IN THE
VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A MOIST/COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR REGION WET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW /SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ABOUT 3000 FT/. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY THE TREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST /THE
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 3500 FT/. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE BRINGS WARMER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT FOR DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR AT KBOI
BY 03Z WED...POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT
KONO KEUL KMAN BECOMING LIFR AFTER 03Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT AT 10KFT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     IDZ012-014.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY
     ORZ064.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA



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