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000
FXUS65 KBOI 020240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS OF
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. IT IS STILL MORE THAN A
MONTH BEFORE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL END OF FROST AND FREEZES IN THE
AGRICULTURAL VALLEYS OF EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
SOME FRUIT TREES THAT HAVE BLOSSOMED EARLIER THAN NORMAL MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD WEATHER...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
GENERALLY NOT ISSUED IN THE SPRING WHEN THE CURRENT DATE IS
EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS 5-10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE COOL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE A NICE WARMUP ARRIVES FRIDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING TROUGH...THE NORTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
SE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP
DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY...SO NO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THEN. HOWEVER
THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW ENCROACHES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE ECMWF COMING MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS /NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THE INCOMING TROUGH AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. WILL BEGIN
THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ITSELF ONSHORE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WE/LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WON/T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
EVENT BUT COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A 5-10 DEGREE DROP BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3-5K
FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 020240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS OF
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO. IT IS STILL MORE THAN A
MONTH BEFORE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL END OF FROST AND FREEZES IN THE
AGRICULTURAL VALLEYS OF EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO.
SOME FRUIT TREES THAT HAVE BLOSSOMED EARLIER THAN NORMAL MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE COLD WEATHER...BUT FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
GENERALLY NOT ISSUED IN THE SPRING WHEN THE CURRENT DATE IS
EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE LAST FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE WINDS 5-10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE COOL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE A NICE WARMUP ARRIVES FRIDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING TROUGH...THE NORTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
SE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP
DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY...SO NO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THEN. HOWEVER
THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW ENCROACHES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE ECMWF COMING MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS /NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THE INCOMING TROUGH AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. WILL BEGIN
THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ITSELF ONSHORE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WE/LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WON/T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
EVENT BUT COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A 5-10 DEGREE DROP BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3-5K
FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012110
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE COOL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE A NICE WARMUP ARRIVES FRIDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING TROUGH...THE NORTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
SE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP
DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY...SO NO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THEN. HOWEVER
THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW ENCROACHES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE ECMWF COMING MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS /NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THE INCOMING TROUGH AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. WILL BEGIN
THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ITSELF ONSHORE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WE/LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WON/T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
EVENT BUT COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A 5-10 DEGREE DROP BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3-5K
FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE SHOWERS IN
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 02/03Z...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. SURFACE WINDS 5-10
KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE
EVENING....DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP
AGAIN BY 02/14Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/WH
AVIATION.....AB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 012110
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...ONE MORE COOL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE A NICE WARMUP ARRIVES FRIDAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LINGERING TROUGH...THE NORTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
SE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE WILL HELP
DRY US OUT FOR FRIDAY...SO NO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THEN. HOWEVER
THIS RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SW FLOW ENCROACHES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE THE ECMWF COMING MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS /NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THE INCOMING TROUGH AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW/...
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. WILL BEGIN
THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES ITSELF ONSHORE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND WE/LL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WON/T BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCING
EVENT BUT COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL. A
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A 5-10 DEGREE DROP BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 3-5K
FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE SHOWERS IN
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 02/03Z...WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. SURFACE WINDS 5-10
KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE
EVENING....DROPPING OFF TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND PICKING UP
AGAIN BY 02/14Z. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/WH
AVIATION.....AB



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000
FXUS65 KPIH 011954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. HAVE SEEN A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT COOLER
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS WELL. WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
AND LIKELY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR AMERICAN FALLS AND
POCATELLO IN ADDITION TO WHERE THEY WERE TODAY. WOUDNT BE SHOCKED
IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OCCURS GIVEN NEGATIVE LIS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY
HALF AN INCH OR LESS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY AND BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR
MANY PLACES ON SATURDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS FASTEST WITH MOVEMENT.  EXPECT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO BE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
SLIDES EAST.  SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO BE IN MOUNTAINS.  GFS SPREADS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROF QUICKLY
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.  EUROPEAN IS WEAKER WITH RIDGE TUESDAY WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER IDAHO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  NEITHER IS VERY
WET WITH THE MID WEEK TROF AT ALL SO KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS GOING WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY.   MAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY SPRING UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR IDA AND SUN.  MAY NEED
TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.  12 TO 24 KNOT WINDS AT
BYI..PIH AND IDA WILL DIE DOWN AT SUNSET AND EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 011954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOTICEABLY COLDER WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION. HAVE SEEN A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT COOLER
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHTER AS WELL. WILL PROBABLY SEE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
AND LIKELY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR AMERICAN FALLS AND
POCATELLO IN ADDITION TO WHERE THEY WERE TODAY. WOUDNT BE SHOCKED
IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OCCURS GIVEN NEGATIVE LIS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...GENERALLY
HALF AN INCH OR LESS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY AND BACK INTO THE LOW 60S FOR
MANY PLACES ON SATURDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS FASTEST WITH MOVEMENT.  EXPECT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TO BE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
SLIDES EAST.  SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT EXPECT BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO BE IN MOUNTAINS.  GFS SPREADS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROF QUICKLY
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY.  EUROPEAN IS WEAKER WITH RIDGE TUESDAY WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER IDAHO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  NEITHER IS VERY
WET WITH THE MID WEEK TROF AT ALL SO KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS GOING WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY.   MAY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY SPRING UP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR IDA AND SUN.  MAY NEED
TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.  12 TO 24 KNOT WINDS AT
BYI..PIH AND IDA WILL DIE DOWN AT SUNSET AND EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS ON
THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SHOWERS
WILL POP UP MAINLY TO THE NORTH. WE ARE LEAVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NRN VALLEY COUNTY AS LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. ALL THIS
IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE SHOWERS
IN E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 02/03Z...WITH A
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. SURFACE WINDS
5-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
WNW EARLY THIS MORNING.  KCBX RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS STILL MOVING ESEWD THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE.
INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NW STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
IN OPEN TERRAIN...EXCEPT WINDY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY
AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS.  DRYING
TONIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 32 IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS.  ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO IT FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL IN OUR CWA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.  THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.  ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO 3000-4500 FEET MSL.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEY
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011601
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1001 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE
MTNS THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP UNDER THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. SHOWERS
WILL POP UP MAINLY TO THE NORTH. WE ARE LEAVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NRN VALLEY COUNTY AS LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING. ALL THIS
IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CHANCE SHOWERS
IN E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 02/03Z...WITH A
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. SURFACE WINDS
5-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL NW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
WNW EARLY THIS MORNING.  KCBX RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS STILL MOVING ESEWD THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE.
INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NW STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
IN OPEN TERRAIN...EXCEPT WINDY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY
AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS.  DRYING
TONIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 32 IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS.  ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO IT FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL IN OUR CWA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.  THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.  ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO 3000-4500 FEET MSL.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEY
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KPIH 010906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A BIT. THE VERY STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
SLOWLY DYING DOWN BUT WILL REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
THOSE HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WE ARE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3AM
AND ARE NOT LOOKING TO PUT ONE OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON LESS WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. THAT SAID...THE DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER WIND IF WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
ARE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WE CAN TAP INTO
WHAT INSTABILITY IS OUT THERE. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW ARE LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
WRITTEN FORECAST. SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF A
HAILEY-SODA SPRINGS LINE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF A STANLEY-
PALISADES LINE. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES FOR SEEING MOISTURE FALL WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF A HAILEY-PRESTON LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT IT`S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE CAUSING TEMPORARY TRAVEL HEADACHES. FOR THE
VALLEYS...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS GRAUPEL.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S EVEN FOR LOWER
VALLEYS...WITH 20S AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE PRETTY COLD AS WELL. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A 5-10 DEGREE WARMUP IS ON TAP.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOST
CONSENSUS. DEEP TROUGH ALONG PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY EJECTS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS WINDS
WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH MODELS HOLD
ON TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW SHARP THE TROUGH IS AND THEREFORE HOW
MUCH RIDGE OCCURS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FURTHER...BY TUESDAY...THE ECMWF DRAGS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WELL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US LEADING TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS IDAHO
HEADED INTO MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
BOTH MODELS SHIFT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT IS NOTABLE HOWEVER THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING BY MID MORNING. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY LLWS REMARKS
IN SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE DIVIDE. SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK PRECIP COULD FORM ALONG
EDGE OF SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT BEST WOULD EARN A VCSH REMARK FOR BOTH KIDA AND KPIH BUT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BETTER INDICATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY KSUN/KIDA. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SHOWERS...WITH BOTH KBYI/KPIH REMAINING VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A BIT. THE VERY STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
SLOWLY DYING DOWN BUT WILL REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
THOSE HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WE ARE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3AM
AND ARE NOT LOOKING TO PUT ONE OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON LESS WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. THAT SAID...THE DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER WIND IF WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
ARE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WE CAN TAP INTO
WHAT INSTABILITY IS OUT THERE. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW ARE LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
WRITTEN FORECAST. SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF A
HAILEY-SODA SPRINGS LINE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF A STANLEY-
PALISADES LINE. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES FOR SEEING MOISTURE FALL WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF A HAILEY-PRESTON LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT IT`S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE CAUSING TEMPORARY TRAVEL HEADACHES. FOR THE
VALLEYS...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS GRAUPEL.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S EVEN FOR LOWER
VALLEYS...WITH 20S AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE PRETTY COLD AS WELL. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A 5-10 DEGREE WARMUP IS ON TAP.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOST
CONSENSUS. DEEP TROUGH ALONG PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY EJECTS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS WINDS
WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH MODELS HOLD
ON TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW SHARP THE TROUGH IS AND THEREFORE HOW
MUCH RIDGE OCCURS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FURTHER...BY TUESDAY...THE ECMWF DRAGS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WELL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US LEADING TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS IDAHO
HEADED INTO MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
BOTH MODELS SHIFT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT IS NOTABLE HOWEVER THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING BY MID MORNING. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY LLWS REMARKS
IN SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE DIVIDE. SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK PRECIP COULD FORM ALONG
EDGE OF SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT BEST WOULD EARN A VCSH REMARK FOR BOTH KIDA AND KPIH BUT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BETTER INDICATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY KSUN/KIDA. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SHOWERS...WITH BOTH KBYI/KPIH REMAINING VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A BIT. THE VERY STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
SLOWLY DYING DOWN BUT WILL REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
THOSE HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WE ARE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3AM
AND ARE NOT LOOKING TO PUT ONE OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON LESS WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. THAT SAID...THE DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER WIND IF WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
ARE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WE CAN TAP INTO
WHAT INSTABILITY IS OUT THERE. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW ARE LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
WRITTEN FORECAST. SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF A
HAILEY-SODA SPRINGS LINE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF A STANLEY-
PALISADES LINE. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES FOR SEEING MOISTURE FALL WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF A HAILEY-PRESTON LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT IT`S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE CAUSING TEMPORARY TRAVEL HEADACHES. FOR THE
VALLEYS...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS GRAUPEL.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S EVEN FOR LOWER
VALLEYS...WITH 20S AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE PRETTY COLD AS WELL. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A 5-10 DEGREE WARMUP IS ON TAP.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOST
CONSENSUS. DEEP TROUGH ALONG PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY EJECTS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS WINDS
WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH MODELS HOLD
ON TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW SHARP THE TROUGH IS AND THEREFORE HOW
MUCH RIDGE OCCURS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FURTHER...BY TUESDAY...THE ECMWF DRAGS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WELL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US LEADING TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS IDAHO
HEADED INTO MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
BOTH MODELS SHIFT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT IS NOTABLE HOWEVER THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING BY MID MORNING. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY LLWS REMARKS
IN SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE DIVIDE. SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK PRECIP COULD FORM ALONG
EDGE OF SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT BEST WOULD EARN A VCSH REMARK FOR BOTH KIDA AND KPIH BUT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BETTER INDICATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY KSUN/KIDA. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SHOWERS...WITH BOTH KBYI/KPIH REMAINING VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR A BIT. THE VERY STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
SLOWLY DYING DOWN BUT WILL REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
THOSE HIGHER GUSTS. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WE ARE LETTING THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 3AM
AND ARE NOT LOOKING TO PUT ONE OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON LESS WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. THAT SAID...THE DAY SHIFT MAY
NEED TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON ANOTHER WIND IF WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
ARE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION BOTH
DAYS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS WE CAN TAP INTO
WHAT INSTABILITY IS OUT THERE. WE MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW ARE LEAVING IT OUT OF THE
WRITTEN FORECAST. SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF A
HAILEY-SODA SPRINGS LINE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF A STANLEY-
PALISADES LINE. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE BUT THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES FOR SEEING MOISTURE FALL WILL
BE NORTHEAST OF A HAILEY-PRESTON LINE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT...BUT IT`S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A QUICK ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE CAUSING TEMPORARY TRAVEL HEADACHES. FOR THE
VALLEYS...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL AS GRAUPEL.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S EVEN FOR LOWER
VALLEYS...WITH 20S AND 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE PRETTY COLD AS WELL. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A 5-10 DEGREE WARMUP IS ON TAP.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOST
CONSENSUS. DEEP TROUGH ALONG PACIFIC COAST SATURDAY EJECTS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY IN THE PERIOD. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL AS WINDS
WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH MODELS HOLD
ON TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE DIFFERENCES LIE IN HOW SHARP THE TROUGH IS AND THEREFORE HOW
MUCH RIDGE OCCURS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FURTHER...BY TUESDAY...THE ECMWF DRAGS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WELL
INTO THE SOUTHWEST US LEADING TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS IDAHO
HEADED INTO MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
BOTH MODELS SHIFT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IT IS NOTABLE HOWEVER THAT SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
HAVE GENERALLY BLENDED SOLUTIONS BEYOND SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING BY MID MORNING. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY LLWS REMARKS
IN SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE DIVIDE. SOME INDICATION THAT WEAK PRECIP COULD FORM ALONG
EDGE OF SNAKE PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT BEST WOULD EARN A VCSH REMARK FOR BOTH KIDA AND KPIH BUT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL BETTER INDICATIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY KSUN/KIDA. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SHOWERS...WITH BOTH KBYI/KPIH REMAINING VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 010840
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
WNW EARLY THIS MORNING.  KCBX RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS STILL MOVING ESEWD THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE.
INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NW STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
IN OPEN TERRAIN...EXCEPT WINDY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY
AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS.  DRYING
TONIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 32 IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS.  ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO IT FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL IN OUR CWA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.  THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.  ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO 3000-4500 FEET MSL.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEY
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR.  BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3K FEET MSL.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS...
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010840
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
WNW EARLY THIS MORNING.  KCBX RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS STILL MOVING ESEWD THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE.
INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NW STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
IN OPEN TERRAIN...EXCEPT WINDY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY
AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS.  DRYING
TONIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 32 IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS.  ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO IT FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL IN OUR CWA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.  THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.  ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO 3000-4500 FEET MSL.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEY
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR.  BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3K FEET MSL.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS...
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010840
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
WNW EARLY THIS MORNING.  KCBX RADAR SHOWED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS STILL MOVING ESEWD THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY NORTH OF BOISE.
INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE
NW STATES WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN-MOST IDAHO
ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
IN OPEN TERRAIN...EXCEPT WINDY IN THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY AND NEARBY
AREAS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY...HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 50S IN THE WARMEST VALLEYS.  DRYING
TONIGHT AND DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 32 IN THE
WARMEST VALLEYS.  ON THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO IT FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL IN OUR CWA AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN IDAHO ZONES NORTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE AREA.  THIS RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND A CUT-OFF LOW DIGS SOUTH OFF THE CANADIAN WEST COAST.  ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO.  TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.  AS THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER
ALL ZONES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING
TO 3000-4500 FEET MSL.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE CUT-OFF
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MODELS AGREE
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEY
DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS
OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR.  BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY...SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3K FEET MSL.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS...
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO THIS
AFTERNOON.  WINDS ALOFT WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 010420
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1020 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BRINGING STRONG WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR
BURLEY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ALONG I-84 INTO UTAH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING STRONG WINDS TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AROUND 3 AM. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE BELOW WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD

AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010251
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
851 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE MAGIC
VALLEY AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN OREGON AND IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY OF IDAHO. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE STILL BEING REPORTED IN
THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND TWIN FALLS...JEROME AND KIMBERLY. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS TO HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS CROSSING THE
SNAKE RIVER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER IN EASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED AND BROKEN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 05Z BECOMING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...WNW 20-30KT BECOMING WNW 10-20KT BY 18Z. LIGHTER NORTHWEST
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF BURNS-ONTARIO-FAIRFIELD LINE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312120
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST MOVING FRONT ALONG
A NE-SW LINE. EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z... DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH
AVIATION.....AB/DG



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312120
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS...WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z. IN GENERAL...WINDS BE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
THE COLD CORE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...TAKING US BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT A WEEK. WE WILL REMAIN COOL THURSDAY
AND THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT TO OUR EASTERN AREAS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS NNWERLY AS ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ONE WILL TRAVERSE DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...RIGHT ON THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
AREA TO COVER MOST OF OUR IDAHO ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRY LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH A TROUGH AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION SLOWLY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
THIS SYSTEM/S TIMING AS MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
OTHER....ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP PROGRESSIVELY FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 3000-5000 FT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST MOVING FRONT ALONG
A NE-SW LINE. EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z... DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB/DG/WH
AVIATION.....AB/DG




000
FXUS65 KPIH 312009
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
209 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO WITH WINDS PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BLOWING DUST ON ROADWAYS
NEAR PLOWED FIELDS. MAY NEED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR A CHANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS
BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 4 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME WARMING
EXPECTED.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN A COMMON
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS BREAKS
DOWN. GFS...ECMWF...AND THEIR ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH GFS HANGING ONTO THE CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN
THE ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH OPENS THE CLOSED LOW INTO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH SOONER. USED A GENERAL GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
NOD TOWARD THE GFS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NOW FOR THE DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW/TROF THAT WILL MOVE
ASHORE EARLY SUNDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AFOREMENTIONED TROF...PROMOTING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS GETTING INTO THE ACT BY
AFTERNOON. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AS THE JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROMOTING SHOWERS THESE DAYS...PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL
INSOLATION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR BELOW CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL...WITH
HIGHEST QPF OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH...ACROSS FAVORED
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP IN VALLEYS. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
REGIME WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK.
AD
&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS DEVELOPING
AT BYI..IDA..AND PIH. LOOK FOR LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
AT KSUN BY 00Z. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED AT PIH AND IDA WITH BLDU. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
THIS EVENING INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ONCE
AGAIN..WITH THESE PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BYI...IDA...AND PIH. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR TOWARDS 06Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VCSH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BYI.
AD

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 311622
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1022 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WINDY DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE REAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE
MORNING IN ERN OREGON THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WHICH WILL AID
IN MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS. THEREFORE WE WILL LET THE WIND
ADVISORY STAND AS IS. WE SUSPECT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A
LITTLE LONGER INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION BASED ON TIMING AS THE AFTERNOON
UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERING INTO LATE
MORNING. CHANCE SHOWERS BEGIN BY 19Z IN SE OREGON WITH AN EAST
MOVING FRONT ALONG A NE-SW LINE. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR ACROSS
E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS WITH SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER. COULD SEE VCSH IN THE MAGIC VALLEY...BUT THIS WILL BE
MORE OF A WIND EVENT. NW 15-25KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IN THE UPPER TREASURE TO MAGIC VALLEYS AND SOUTH AFTER
31/21Z...DECREASING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT
MSL...SW 20-30KT....BECOMING WNW 20-30KT 01/00Z...AND WNW 10-20KT
BY 01/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
..IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....AB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 310906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY WINDS AT
RIDGETOP LEVEL AS WELL AS GAP WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-84 AND 86.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AND GENERALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY AROUND SO WE DID MENTION ISOLATED STORMS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF SOME STORMS...BUT RIGHT NOW
NOTHING TOO STRONG IS EXPECTED. THINGS REALLY GET GOING TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
SOME MIXING OF WINDS FROM ABOVE THE GROUND WILL PRODUCE OUR
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. WINDS OF SPEEDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR UP AND DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE UPPER SNAKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WE WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND LETTING UP A BIT...BUT
BLOWING DUST COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL STAY STRONGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MORE
WESTERLY...AGAIN WITH BLOWING DUST AN ISSUE IN THE DARK. THOSE
AREAS WILL SEE THE ADVISORY LAST UNTIL 3AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
OF SNOW FALLING OR ACCUMULATING DOWN LOW...WHERE IT OCCURS.

WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAKER STORMS CROSSING OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AROUND SO A DEFINITE UPTICK IN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.
WE MIGHT SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR THE VALLEYS...EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL. RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE MUCH AT
ALL EACH DAY EITHER. IT WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH OUR THRESHOLD FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. BLOWING DUST WOULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE. THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ON TAP. WE SEE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE
50 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER...WE WILL END PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE IF
NOT JUST BELOW. DEFINITELY A FAR CRY FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FOR THE PAST FEW. KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THRU SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON SAT. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THRU FRI NIGHT...THE SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SAT AFTN. AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO THE PAC NW...MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUN. THE
UPPER TROF PASSES THRU ID ON MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON
NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE
GFS SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF HOLD THE TROF BACK WITH PRECIP LINGERING
OVER THE MTNS THRU TUE. BOTH MODELS COME TOGETHER TUE NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH THE
GFS FOR NOW. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
THIS AFTN BRINGING STRONG SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AROUND
KSUN...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 310906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY WINDS AT
RIDGETOP LEVEL AS WELL AS GAP WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-84 AND 86.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AND GENERALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY AROUND SO WE DID MENTION ISOLATED STORMS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF SOME STORMS...BUT RIGHT NOW
NOTHING TOO STRONG IS EXPECTED. THINGS REALLY GET GOING TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
SOME MIXING OF WINDS FROM ABOVE THE GROUND WILL PRODUCE OUR
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. WINDS OF SPEEDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR UP AND DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE UPPER SNAKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WE WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND LETTING UP A BIT...BUT
BLOWING DUST COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL STAY STRONGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MORE
WESTERLY...AGAIN WITH BLOWING DUST AN ISSUE IN THE DARK. THOSE
AREAS WILL SEE THE ADVISORY LAST UNTIL 3AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
OF SNOW FALLING OR ACCUMULATING DOWN LOW...WHERE IT OCCURS.

WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAKER STORMS CROSSING OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AROUND SO A DEFINITE UPTICK IN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.
WE MIGHT SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR THE VALLEYS...EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL. RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE MUCH AT
ALL EACH DAY EITHER. IT WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH OUR THRESHOLD FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. BLOWING DUST WOULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE. THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ON TAP. WE SEE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE
50 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER...WE WILL END PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE IF
NOT JUST BELOW. DEFINITELY A FAR CRY FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FOR THE PAST FEW. KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THRU SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON SAT. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THRU FRI NIGHT...THE SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SAT AFTN. AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO THE PAC NW...MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUN. THE
UPPER TROF PASSES THRU ID ON MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON
NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE
GFS SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF HOLD THE TROF BACK WITH PRECIP LINGERING
OVER THE MTNS THRU TUE. BOTH MODELS COME TOGETHER TUE NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH THE
GFS FOR NOW. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
THIS AFTN BRINGING STRONG SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AROUND
KSUN...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 310906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY WINDS AT
RIDGETOP LEVEL AS WELL AS GAP WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-84 AND 86.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AND GENERALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY AROUND SO WE DID MENTION ISOLATED STORMS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF SOME STORMS...BUT RIGHT NOW
NOTHING TOO STRONG IS EXPECTED. THINGS REALLY GET GOING TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
SOME MIXING OF WINDS FROM ABOVE THE GROUND WILL PRODUCE OUR
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. WINDS OF SPEEDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR UP AND DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE UPPER SNAKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WE WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND LETTING UP A BIT...BUT
BLOWING DUST COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL STAY STRONGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MORE
WESTERLY...AGAIN WITH BLOWING DUST AN ISSUE IN THE DARK. THOSE
AREAS WILL SEE THE ADVISORY LAST UNTIL 3AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
OF SNOW FALLING OR ACCUMULATING DOWN LOW...WHERE IT OCCURS.

WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAKER STORMS CROSSING OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AROUND SO A DEFINITE UPTICK IN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.
WE MIGHT SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR THE VALLEYS...EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL. RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE MUCH AT
ALL EACH DAY EITHER. IT WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH OUR THRESHOLD FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. BLOWING DUST WOULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE. THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ON TAP. WE SEE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE
50 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER...WE WILL END PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE IF
NOT JUST BELOW. DEFINITELY A FAR CRY FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FOR THE PAST FEW. KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THRU SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON SAT. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THRU FRI NIGHT...THE SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SAT AFTN. AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO THE PAC NW...MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUN. THE
UPPER TROF PASSES THRU ID ON MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON
NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE
GFS SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF HOLD THE TROF BACK WITH PRECIP LINGERING
OVER THE MTNS THRU TUE. BOTH MODELS COME TOGETHER TUE NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH THE
GFS FOR NOW. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
THIS AFTN BRINGING STRONG SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AROUND
KSUN...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 310906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND GUSTY WINDS AT
RIDGETOP LEVEL AS WELL AS GAP WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-84 AND 86.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AND GENERALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY AROUND SO WE DID MENTION ISOLATED STORMS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF SOME STORMS...BUT RIGHT NOW
NOTHING TOO STRONG IS EXPECTED. THINGS REALLY GET GOING TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION. THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH
SOME MIXING OF WINDS FROM ABOVE THE GROUND WILL PRODUCE OUR
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. WINDS OF SPEEDS OF 25-35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR UP AND DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE UPPER SNAKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WE WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THEM THROUGH THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE THE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND LETTING UP A BIT...BUT
BLOWING DUST COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE AFTER SUNSET. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL STAY STRONGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MORE
WESTERLY...AGAIN WITH BLOWING DUST AN ISSUE IN THE DARK. THOSE
AREAS WILL SEE THE ADVISORY LAST UNTIL 3AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK BEHIND THE FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH
TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS
OF SNOW FALLING OR ACCUMULATING DOWN LOW...WHERE IT OCCURS.

WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF WEAKER STORMS CROSSING OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AROUND SO A DEFINITE UPTICK IN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.
WE MIGHT SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR THE VALLEYS...EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AND EVEN SOME GRAUPEL. RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE MUCH AT
ALL EACH DAY EITHER. IT WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY FOR
TOMORROW...WITH WINDS FLIRTING WITH OUR THRESHOLD FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. BLOWING DUST WOULD BE AN ISSUE AGAIN...SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE. THE BIG STORY IS THE MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ON TAP. WE SEE HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO HIT THE
50 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER...WE WILL END PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE IF
NOT JUST BELOW. DEFINITELY A FAR CRY FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FOR THE PAST FEW. KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THRU SUNDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
ON FRI TRANSITIONS TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST
ON SAT. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THRU FRI NIGHT...THE SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SET OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SAT AFTN. AS
THE UPPER LOW DROPS SE INTO THE PAC NW...MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND SPOTTY
VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON SUN. THE
UPPER TROF PASSES THRU ID ON MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON
NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE
GFS SUGGESTS. THE ECMWF HOLD THE TROF BACK WITH PRECIP LINGERING
OVER THE MTNS THRU TUE. BOTH MODELS COME TOGETHER TUE NIGHT WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DECIDED TO LEAN MORE WITH THE
GFS FOR NOW. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
THIS AFTN BRINGING STRONG SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AROUND
KSUN...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME VIS
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-021-022.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
IDZ019-020-032.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310857
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
257 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS.  FRONT LOOKS STRONGER
THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY/S MODELS AND THE SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING WILL
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT.  STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HIT LATE TODAY IN THE SNAKE BASIN EAST OF
MOUNTAIN HOME AS MODELS SHOW TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME.  MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN OREGON ZONES...BUT IN IDAHO THE FRONT WILL
COME LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 60S BEFORE
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FULL COOLING WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.  THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
ESPECIALLY MOIST BUT NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL
IN NRN ZONES...LITTLE IF ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST.  UPPER
TROUGH WILL RE-DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  FIRST TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER BAKER COUNTY AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF IDAHO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE ELSE.  TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS RIDGE BUT
DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  FORECASTER THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THAT ANY
MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UNDER THIS WEAK RIDGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.  FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS IS LOW.
MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
IS DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS NO RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY SO THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION.  FOR NOW DO NOT WANT TO YO-YO THE FORECAST WITH THE
CHANGING MODELS SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL BE IN FOR A COOL-DOWN WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY FALLING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.   THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET MSL BY
THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING...AFTER 18Z BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...EXCEPT IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KMUO AND
SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




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