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000
FXUS65 KBOI 280924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HEAT WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AVERAGING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF MONSOON MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN BRINING
MOISTURE TO AT LEAST OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LATEST MODEL RUN
OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE.  CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE OVER IDAHO.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL END UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE TREND OF AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 16Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HEAT WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AVERAGING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF MONSOON MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN BRINING
MOISTURE TO AT LEAST OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LATEST MODEL RUN
OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE.  CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE OVER IDAHO.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL END UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE TREND OF AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 16Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HEAT WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AVERAGING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF MONSOON MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN BRINING
MOISTURE TO AT LEAST OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LATEST MODEL RUN
OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE.  CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE OVER IDAHO.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL END UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE TREND OF AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 16Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY ENOUGH THAT NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD. THE HEAT WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AVERAGING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF MONSOON MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN BRINING
MOISTURE TO AT LEAST OREGON BY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LATEST MODEL RUN
OF THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE.  CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE OVER IDAHO.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL END UP OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE TREND OF AT LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  WITH THE RECENT RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 16Z.  SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 280820
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...WE ARE ENTERING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM UP STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS UP NORTH TODAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WHETHER
THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE
LEMHI COUNTY AND MONTANA BORDERS...THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE
LIKELIHOOD IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT RIGHT NOW. THE MAIN STORY
TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH IS THE LINGERING COLD AIR. HIGHS TODAY
WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY. WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A FEW MORE DAILY RECORDS FOR
THE COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED OR BROKEN. WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LITTLE WIND...WE SHOULD END UP COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING. THAT SPELLS MORE POCKETS OF FROST AND/OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SOME PLACE
IN UPPER PLAIN MAY ALSO BRIEFLY SEE A FROST. WE WILL SEE A 10
DEGREE JUMP TOMORROW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCE ON WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES IN
EASTERN IDAHO AND ALSO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE AND ALSO POSSIBLY DELAYING BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED STORMS STARTING SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED DUE A SYSTEM SHOWING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS IN BETTER MOISTURE BY
SATURDAY BUT TURNS THE FLOW WESTERLY AND ACTUALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE ECMWF AT THE MOMENT SEEMS
TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT. WE MAINTAINED SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE
GFS SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO THE 9 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE VALLEYS HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOW ONLY A
SLIGHT 2 TO 3 DEGREE WARMING TUESDAY...BUT APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE EVIDENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FORMING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT ANY MONSOON
MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO GET GOING...FAVORING MORE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280330
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH EAST IDAHO. WEAK
SHOWERS LINGER IN REGION OF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW ELEVATION
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNAKE PLAIN SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON

AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280330
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH EAST IDAHO. WEAK
SHOWERS LINGER IN REGION OF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW ELEVATION
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNAKE PLAIN SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON

AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280330
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH EAST IDAHO. WEAK
SHOWERS LINGER IN REGION OF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW ELEVATION
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNAKE PLAIN SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON

AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280330
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH EAST IDAHO. WEAK
SHOWERS LINGER IN REGION OF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW ELEVATION
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNAKE PLAIN SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON

AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280330
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
930 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH EAST IDAHO. WEAK
SHOWERS LINGER IN REGION OF TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE - SHOULD
SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW ELEVATION
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SNAKE PLAIN SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS NEAR
FREEZING. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON

AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280238
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO
THE AREA IS NOW UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE SOON AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TRANSITION.

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTH OF KMYL ENDING BY 04Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CUMULUS UNTIL 04Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20
KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280238
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO
THE AREA IS NOW UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE SOON AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TRANSITION.

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTH OF KMYL ENDING BY 04Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CUMULUS UNTIL 04Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20
KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280238
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
838 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO
THE AREA IS NOW UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD CEASE SOON AFTER SUNSET. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REFLECTIVE OF THIS TRANSITION.

.AVIATION...VFR. WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTH OF KMYL ENDING BY 04Z. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CUMULUS UNTIL 04Z. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20
KNOTS BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 272105
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 272105
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
305 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...BREEZY AMD COOL THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.  TROUGH WILL BE IN MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
NORTH OF N.DAKOTA BY LATE TUESDAY.  COLD TONIGHT THEN MODERATING
TEMPS TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO
LATE JULY NORMALS ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE
COLDEST JULY NIGHTS SINCE 2000 WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO 40S IN THE VALLEYS.  HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS IN CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING.  TUESDAY WILL BE 6-10 DEGS WARMER THAN
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 6-10 DEGS WARMER.  MIN TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MORE SLOWLY...WED MORNING SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGS WARMER THAN
TUESDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AND ONLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY.  SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FOG TUESDAY MORNING IN NRN
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE
RIDGE CIRCULATION...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWS ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS
INCLUDE EASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. SURFACE WINDS...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ALOFT...
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KPIH 271957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-
021.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 271957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-
021.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 271957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-
021.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 271957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
157 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A DRIER NW FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECOUPLING. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ERN MAGIC VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND THE RECENT INJECTION OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT AS CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
FROST POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. LOOK FOR A
FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
KEEPING SRN IDAHO DRY WITH NOTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO IDAHO AS
EARLY SATURDAY PROMOTING ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH
MONDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...-TSRA SHOULD END EARLY TODAY AS A STRONG FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR WITH
UNLIMITED CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT. WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH NO REPEAT FOR TOMORROW. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WILL DEVELOP
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN...AND SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO
SAT. NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WED WITH
THE CLEARER SKIES. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ017-020-
021.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271532
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT
AND WAS EAST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT
AND WERE STILL OCCURRING AT 8 AM IN THE MAGIC VALLEY.  SKIES HAVE
CLEARED TO THE WEST.  SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.  SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.  BREEZY AND QUITE COOL TODAY...HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...AND SOME 50S IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.  THESE TEMPS ARE NEAR RECORDS FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON THIS
DATE.  CLEARING THIS EVENING AND COLDER...LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE 30S AND 40S IN MOST AREAS.  WARMER AND LESS WINDY TUESDAY.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY.  NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS EXPECT AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 03Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271532
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
932 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT
AND WAS EAST OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT
AND WERE STILL OCCURRING AT 8 AM IN THE MAGIC VALLEY.  SKIES HAVE
CLEARED TO THE WEST.  SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH.  SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.  BREEZY AND QUITE COOL TODAY...HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...AND SOME 50S IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.  THESE TEMPS ARE NEAR RECORDS FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON THIS
DATE.  CLEARING THIS EVENING AND COLDER...LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE 30S AND 40S IN MOST AREAS.  WARMER AND LESS WINDY TUESDAY.
FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE FOR MORE SHOWERS IN THE MAGIC
VALLEY.  NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS EXPECT AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND LOCAL LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL ABOUT 03Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER 03Z.
WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
340 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...DRYING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS...EXCEPT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 25-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
340 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...DRYING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS...EXCEPT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 25-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
340 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...DRYING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS...EXCEPT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 25-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
340 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...DRYING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS...EXCEPT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 25-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270940
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
340 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE
OREGON IS PROVIDING LIFT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER FAR SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP IS STEADILY MOVING EAST AND WILL PUSH THOUGH SW IDAHO
DURING THE MORNING PASSING BOISE NEAR SUNRISE AND TO TWIN FALLS
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH N-CENTRAL ID INTO SW MT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY /CLOSER TO LATE SEPTEMBER
NORMALS/ AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST FROM MTN HOME TO TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WITH SPEEDS TO
AROUND 35 MPH. DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION SITES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
MTN VALLEYS LOCATIONS INTO THE 30S TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 6-10 DEGREES FROM
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN WESTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BUT MODELS NOW SHOW SEVERAL IN A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THAT KEEPS THE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ZONAL.  EVEN WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WARMING TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...BUT BIG DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE MONSOON
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  GFS REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE LATEST
MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT NOW
REACHING SOUTHWEST OREGON FRIDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST OREGON
FRIDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF DOES NOT BRING ANY KIND OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN VERY LITTLE COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A MODEL BLEND
AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR.  MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...DRYING FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KNOTS...EXCEPT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS.  WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 25-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE WEEK IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASICALLY FROM THE INL COMPLEX TO ISLAND PARK AS OF 230AM.
MORE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN PUSH WITH
THIS STORM WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND WHERE MORE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND PLAIN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF BUT WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE
STRONG WINDS...AS ALREADY WITNESSED WITH 50-55MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKER CELLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN SOME AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY
HIT THEIR HIGHS OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A
COUPLE OF INTERESTING RECORDS SET TODAY...THAT BEING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL THE WINDS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THEY MAY
EVEN PEAK IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS IN
THE UPPER PLAIN MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING AS IT`S HARD TO TELL
THE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERALL TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST...OR
IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ARE JUST MAKING IT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE. EVEN
IF THEY ARE OVERALL IN THAT DIRECTION...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK. WITH THIS AMOUNT
OF WIND...LARGER VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISSUES ON SOME LAKES. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE. EVERYTHING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER AROUND ISLAND PARK BY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF. THE MODELS DO HINT A CONVERGENCE BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TO IDAHO FALLS FOR A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AND VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 35-45 DEGREES. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS...SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO THINK ABOUT PREPARING
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. ALSO DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE OR BREAK FEW RECORDS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT NOT LOOKING AT A
HUGE JUMP. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
WITH POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD LOWS AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIG WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT IT STAY WARM
THOUGH. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
12Z. WILL LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AT KBYI AROUND 18Z AND KSUN AROUND
21-22Z...AND KPIH ABOUT 24Z. KIDA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 28/02Z.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH 28/02-03Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE. CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND SHOSHONE TO BURLEY BY
NOONTIME. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTA-MACKAY...DUBOIS-
ISLAND PARK...PERHAPS ASHTON HILL THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...MOSTLY TRACE TO .03 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM
SHOSHONE TO POCATELLO AND NORTH TO ARCO AND IDAHO FALLS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH GUST UP TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED IN LITTLE LOST...BIG LOST AND LEMHI-BIRCH CREEK INTO THE
ARCO DESERT. ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 20-25
PERCENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MUCH DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE STILL SEE SOME
SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SWINGING WIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
THEN TO IDAHO PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE WEEK IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASICALLY FROM THE INL COMPLEX TO ISLAND PARK AS OF 230AM.
MORE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN PUSH WITH
THIS STORM WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND WHERE MORE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND PLAIN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF BUT WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE
STRONG WINDS...AS ALREADY WITNESSED WITH 50-55MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKER CELLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN SOME AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY
HIT THEIR HIGHS OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A
COUPLE OF INTERESTING RECORDS SET TODAY...THAT BEING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL THE WINDS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THEY MAY
EVEN PEAK IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS IN
THE UPPER PLAIN MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING AS IT`S HARD TO TELL
THE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERALL TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST...OR
IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ARE JUST MAKING IT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE. EVEN
IF THEY ARE OVERALL IN THAT DIRECTION...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK. WITH THIS AMOUNT
OF WIND...LARGER VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISSUES ON SOME LAKES. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE. EVERYTHING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER AROUND ISLAND PARK BY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF. THE MODELS DO HINT A CONVERGENCE BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TO IDAHO FALLS FOR A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AND VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 35-45 DEGREES. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS...SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO THINK ABOUT PREPARING
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. ALSO DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE OR BREAK FEW RECORDS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT NOT LOOKING AT A
HUGE JUMP. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
WITH POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD LOWS AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIG WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT IT STAY WARM
THOUGH. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
12Z. WILL LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AT KBYI AROUND 18Z AND KSUN AROUND
21-22Z...AND KPIH ABOUT 24Z. KIDA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 28/02Z.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH 28/02-03Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE. CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND SHOSHONE TO BURLEY BY
NOONTIME. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTA-MACKAY...DUBOIS-
ISLAND PARK...PERHAPS ASHTON HILL THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...MOSTLY TRACE TO .03 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM
SHOSHONE TO POCATELLO AND NORTH TO ARCO AND IDAHO FALLS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH GUST UP TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED IN LITTLE LOST...BIG LOST AND LEMHI-BIRCH CREEK INTO THE
ARCO DESERT. ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 20-25
PERCENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MUCH DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE STILL SEE SOME
SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SWINGING WIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
THEN TO IDAHO PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE WEEK IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASICALLY FROM THE INL COMPLEX TO ISLAND PARK AS OF 230AM.
MORE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN PUSH WITH
THIS STORM WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND WHERE MORE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND PLAIN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF BUT WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE
STRONG WINDS...AS ALREADY WITNESSED WITH 50-55MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKER CELLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN SOME AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY
HIT THEIR HIGHS OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A
COUPLE OF INTERESTING RECORDS SET TODAY...THAT BEING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL THE WINDS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THEY MAY
EVEN PEAK IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS IN
THE UPPER PLAIN MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING AS IT`S HARD TO TELL
THE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERALL TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST...OR
IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ARE JUST MAKING IT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE. EVEN
IF THEY ARE OVERALL IN THAT DIRECTION...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK. WITH THIS AMOUNT
OF WIND...LARGER VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISSUES ON SOME LAKES. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE. EVERYTHING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER AROUND ISLAND PARK BY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF. THE MODELS DO HINT A CONVERGENCE BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TO IDAHO FALLS FOR A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AND VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 35-45 DEGREES. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS...SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO THINK ABOUT PREPARING
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. ALSO DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE OR BREAK FEW RECORDS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT NOT LOOKING AT A
HUGE JUMP. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
WITH POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD LOWS AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIG WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT IT STAY WARM
THOUGH. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
12Z. WILL LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AT KBYI AROUND 18Z AND KSUN AROUND
21-22Z...AND KPIH ABOUT 24Z. KIDA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 28/02Z.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH 28/02-03Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE. CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND SHOSHONE TO BURLEY BY
NOONTIME. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTA-MACKAY...DUBOIS-
ISLAND PARK...PERHAPS ASHTON HILL THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...MOSTLY TRACE TO .03 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM
SHOSHONE TO POCATELLO AND NORTH TO ARCO AND IDAHO FALLS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH GUST UP TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED IN LITTLE LOST...BIG LOST AND LEMHI-BIRCH CREEK INTO THE
ARCO DESERT. ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 20-25
PERCENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MUCH DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE STILL SEE SOME
SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SWINGING WIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
THEN TO IDAHO PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE WEEK IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASICALLY FROM THE INL COMPLEX TO ISLAND PARK AS OF 230AM.
MORE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN PUSH WITH
THIS STORM WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND WHERE MORE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND PLAIN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF BUT WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE
STRONG WINDS...AS ALREADY WITNESSED WITH 50-55MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKER CELLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN SOME AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY
HIT THEIR HIGHS OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A
COUPLE OF INTERESTING RECORDS SET TODAY...THAT BEING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL THE WINDS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THEY MAY
EVEN PEAK IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS IN
THE UPPER PLAIN MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING AS IT`S HARD TO TELL
THE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERALL TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST...OR
IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ARE JUST MAKING IT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE. EVEN
IF THEY ARE OVERALL IN THAT DIRECTION...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK. WITH THIS AMOUNT
OF WIND...LARGER VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISSUES ON SOME LAKES. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE. EVERYTHING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER AROUND ISLAND PARK BY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF. THE MODELS DO HINT A CONVERGENCE BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TO IDAHO FALLS FOR A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AND VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 35-45 DEGREES. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS...SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO THINK ABOUT PREPARING
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. ALSO DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE OR BREAK FEW RECORDS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT NOT LOOKING AT A
HUGE JUMP. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
WITH POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD LOWS AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIG WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT IT STAY WARM
THOUGH. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
12Z. WILL LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AT KBYI AROUND 18Z AND KSUN AROUND
21-22Z...AND KPIH ABOUT 24Z. KIDA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 28/02Z.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH 28/02-03Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE. CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND SHOSHONE TO BURLEY BY
NOONTIME. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTA-MACKAY...DUBOIS-
ISLAND PARK...PERHAPS ASHTON HILL THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...MOSTLY TRACE TO .03 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM
SHOSHONE TO POCATELLO AND NORTH TO ARCO AND IDAHO FALLS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH GUST UP TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED IN LITTLE LOST...BIG LOST AND LEMHI-BIRCH CREEK INTO THE
ARCO DESERT. ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 20-25
PERCENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MUCH DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE STILL SEE SOME
SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SWINGING WIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
THEN TO IDAHO PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270335
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
935 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...UNSEASONABLE SYSTEM MARCHING THROUGH PACNW THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW HAS BEEN DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN UTAH
WITH BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EAST
IDAHO. SFC FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN IDAHO WITH
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK CONVECTION TRYING
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEHIND STEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT MAY NOT HAVE
PUSHED POPS FAR ENOUGH EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS
FAVOR ONLY BRIEF WEAK CONVECTION...WAITING FOR THE MAIN EVENT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE LIES TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION. HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK

AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270335
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
935 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...UNSEASONABLE SYSTEM MARCHING THROUGH PACNW THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW HAS BEEN DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN UTAH
WITH BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EAST
IDAHO. SFC FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN IDAHO WITH
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK CONVECTION TRYING
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEHIND STEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT MAY NOT HAVE
PUSHED POPS FAR ENOUGH EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS
FAVOR ONLY BRIEF WEAK CONVECTION...WAITING FOR THE MAIN EVENT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE LIES TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION. HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK

AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 270335
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
935 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...UNSEASONABLE SYSTEM MARCHING THROUGH PACNW THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW HAS BEEN DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN UTAH
WITH BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EAST
IDAHO. SFC FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN IDAHO WITH
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK CONVECTION TRYING
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEHIND STEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT MAY NOT HAVE
PUSHED POPS FAR ENOUGH EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS
FAVOR ONLY BRIEF WEAK CONVECTION...WAITING FOR THE MAIN EVENT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE LIES TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION. HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK

AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 270335
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
935 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...UNSEASONABLE SYSTEM MARCHING THROUGH PACNW THIS EVENING.
SFC LOW HAS BEEN DEEPENING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER NORTHERN UTAH
WITH BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF EAST
IDAHO. SFC FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN IDAHO WITH
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WEAK CONVECTION TRYING
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST BEHIND STEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z BUT MAY NOT HAVE
PUSHED POPS FAR ENOUGH EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS
FAVOR ONLY BRIEF WEAK CONVECTION...WAITING FOR THE MAIN EVENT
COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT SO CONFIDENCE LIES TOWARD THE DRIER
SOLUTION. HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK

AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270240
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
840 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY...FRONT IS LOCATED BETWEEN ONTARIO AND BOISE AND EXTENDS
SW AND NE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
MARCH SOUTH AND EAST...AND THE FORECAST IS SUITABLY REFLECTIVE OF
THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY WEST OF A KREO-KMYL LINE WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN SE OREGON LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FEET MSL...NORTHWEST
15-30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...EP
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....TB/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262024
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AROUND KBNO AND KBKE AT
23Z...KMYL AROUND 01Z...KBOI NEAR 03Z...AND KTWF NEAR 06Z. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...
AND CONTINUING IN MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KJER-KMYL LINE AFTER
12Z...WHILE DRYING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 NEAR THE FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KTS EAST OF KBOI ON MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT BECOMING W-NW 25-30 KTS.

&&

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TB/WH
AVIATION.....TB



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262024
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
224 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...DEEP COOL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NW COAST
WILL SWING INLAND AND THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OREGON
ZONES THIS EVENING AND IDAHO ZONES OVERNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED AND FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON HIGHER
NORTHERN PEAKS ON THE IDAHO SIDE MONDAY MORNING.  MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AND COOL IN ALL AREAS...MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S...50S IN THE HIGHER CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST FOR A JULY DAY SINCE AT LEAST 2010...
WITH 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE CWA.  ONLY THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL
STAY NEAR 50.  BOISE HASN/T BEEN BELOW 50 IN JULY SINCE 2010 WHEN
IT WAS 49...AND HASN/T BEEN BELOW 49 SINCE 2000 WHEN IT WAS 45 ON
JULY 4.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY TUESDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOON MOISTURE BUILDING IN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON...ON THURSDAY. BUT FOR NOW...WE HELD
OFF ON ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
THAN THE ECMWF...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND WE ONLY INTRODUCED VERY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  WITH THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE BUILDING...THE HEAT RAPIDLY
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES 6-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND PUSHING PAST THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME OF THE
LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS REACH THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP AROUND KBNO AND KBKE AT
23Z...KMYL AROUND 01Z...KBOI NEAR 03Z...AND KTWF NEAR 06Z. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT...
AND CONTINUING IN MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF KJER-KMYL LINE AFTER
12Z...WHILE DRYING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 NEAR THE FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KTS EAST OF KBOI ON MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT BECOMING W-NW 25-30 KTS.

&&

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....TB/WH
AVIATION.....TB




000
FXUS65 KPIH 262020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK


&&

.AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 262020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS RESULTING IN A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. SHARP TROUGH IS CRASHING ASHORE OF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WA COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL ZIP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY MID
MORNING...THEN EXITING INTO WYOMING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF
WINDS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN
PEAKS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES...AS WELL AS CREATE
CHOP ON AREA LAKES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THUS WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR SNAKE PLAIN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS IMPACT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSISH TOMORROW NIGHT.

A SECONDARY IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED POPS
TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE UT BORDER INCREASING TO LIKELY SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE REALIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTED THE
INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS OVER THIS AREA.

A THIRD IMPACT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DRAMATIC
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW MAX
TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH RECORDS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. RECORD LOWS
BOTH MORNINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...BUT FOR A SHORTER DURATION...LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 9000 FT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED
ABOVE 9000 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PREPARE FOR COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SCAMPERS OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...LEADING TO A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...AND THUS A
FORMIDABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN FACT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE
WILL INCRINGE ON SE IDAHO...AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. AD/GK


&&

.AVIATION...LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO.   MAIN EFFECT AT TAF SITES WILL BE WINDS WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT SUSTAINED EXPECTED MONDAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.  GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED.   HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL.   10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND IDA SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING UP AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.   MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WETTING
RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476.  WITH POSSIBLE 25 TO 35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN ZONES 425 AND 410.  HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
TO ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS HOWEVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 30S
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.   DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



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