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000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281658
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR TODAY. PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS THIS MORNING...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP GENERATION IS
MOSTLY OROGRAPHIC SO OUTSIDE OF SOME SPRINKLES...VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND TO DECREASE POPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. SEEING GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE BAKER AND LONG VALLEYS AND WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AND ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL RAMP
UP WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. EXCEPT IFR
FOG IN LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NEAR KONO. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF KBNO-KONO-
KBOI-KSUN LINE OBSCURED WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000FT IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 8000FT ALONG NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 12KT OR LESS
IN TREASURE VALLEY...SOUTHWEST 15-25 WITH GUSTS TO 40KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON NEAR KREO. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20KT IN BAKER
VALLEY AND NORTH- SOUTH ORIENTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WESTERLY 40-55KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JS



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 281041
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAJOR TROUGH WITH A STRONG
POSITIVE TILT WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND BEGIN
PUMPING MILD MOIST AIR INTO THE GEM STATE. THERE IS AN
ACCOMPANYING 120KT-PLUS JET STREAK THAT CROSSES OVERHEAD TODAY AND
IS THE FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM. RAN THE LOCAL WIND STUDY SCHEME AND
THE SUPPORTING ELEMENTS FOR A WIND ADVISORY ARE THE STRONG
WESTERLY 700MB AT 40KT-PLUS AND 65KT-PLUS 500MB WINDS. ELEMENTS
FOR NOT GOING THAT STRONG ON THE WIND IS THE MSLP PATTERN IS
COMPLETELY WRONG...THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THERE
IS STRONG STABILITY. SINCE THERE ARE NO KNOWN WIND ADVISORY
EVENTS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE HIGH SCORE ON THE STUDY AND WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OF COURSE THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WONT BE BREEZY TO WINDY
TODAY...AS IT ALREAD IS IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. ON SAT AND
SUN...HOWEVER...THE WIND ISSUE IS MORE CONFIDENT. THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WIND WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MORE LOOKING AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING.

THE SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS. FOR
THIS EVENT...IT IS STRONGLY A FUNCTION OF SNOW LEVEL ELEVATION. A
CHANGE OF 500 OR SO FEET IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ELEVATION CAN MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE HERE. 28/00Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAN PREVIOUS THINKING...SO
HAVE ADDED THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SNOW DOES NOT SERIOUSLY DEVELOP
HERE UNTIL SAT MORNING AT THE EARLIEST...SO IT STARTS 12 HOURS
LATER THAN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. NAM GUIDANCE WAS
WETTER IN AMOUNTS AND STRONGER IN POPS...AND HAVE KEPT MUCH THE
SAME UNTIL SUN. BY SUN...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAVES THE PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
WYOMING AND UTAH BORDER REGIONS. HAVE LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS THINKING.

THE FINAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR PUSH
AND HOW FAR IT PENETRATES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FROM SAT TO SUN. THUS HAVE STAYED THE COURSE HERE...ALTHOUGH NAM
MOS IS SOMEWHAT COLDER TO MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT.
MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATIONS ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE IN THIS REGARD. OVERALL...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT THE NEXT PAC TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
THROUGHOUT SE IDAHO. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUCTUATIONS...HAVE
MAINTAINED A BROAD BRUSH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WE WILL RESPOND
WITH STRONGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SHEARING INLAND LATE TONIGHT WITH ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS/CIGS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KSUN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING NEAR 5500 MSL. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 281041
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAJOR TROUGH WITH A STRONG
POSITIVE TILT WILL SLOWLY DIG SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND BEGIN
PUMPING MILD MOIST AIR INTO THE GEM STATE. THERE IS AN
ACCOMPANYING 120KT-PLUS JET STREAK THAT CROSSES OVERHEAD TODAY AND
IS THE FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM. RAN THE LOCAL WIND STUDY SCHEME AND
THE SUPPORTING ELEMENTS FOR A WIND ADVISORY ARE THE STRONG
WESTERLY 700MB AT 40KT-PLUS AND 65KT-PLUS 500MB WINDS. ELEMENTS
FOR NOT GOING THAT STRONG ON THE WIND IS THE MSLP PATTERN IS
COMPLETELY WRONG...THERE IS LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THERE
IS STRONG STABILITY. SINCE THERE ARE NO KNOWN WIND ADVISORY
EVENTS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT...HAVE DISCOUNTED
THE HIGH SCORE ON THE STUDY AND WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. OF COURSE THAT DOES NOT MEAN IT WONT BE BREEZY TO WINDY
TODAY...AS IT ALREAD IS IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. ON SAT AND
SUN...HOWEVER...THE WIND ISSUE IS MORE CONFIDENT. THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WIND WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MORE LOOKING AT THIS BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING.

THE SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS. FOR
THIS EVENT...IT IS STRONGLY A FUNCTION OF SNOW LEVEL ELEVATION. A
CHANGE OF 500 OR SO FEET IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE ELEVATION CAN MAKE
A HUGE DIFFERENCE HERE. 28/00Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE EASTERN ZONES THAN PREVIOUS THINKING...SO
HAVE ADDED THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SNOW DOES NOT SERIOUSLY DEVELOP
HERE UNTIL SAT MORNING AT THE EARLIEST...SO IT STARTS 12 HOURS
LATER THAN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. NAM GUIDANCE WAS
WETTER IN AMOUNTS AND STRONGER IN POPS...AND HAVE KEPT MUCH THE
SAME UNTIL SUN. BY SUN...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAVES THE PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE
WYOMING AND UTAH BORDER REGIONS. HAVE LOWER POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS THINKING.

THE FINAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR PUSH
AND HOW FAR IT PENETRATES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FROM SAT TO SUN. THUS HAVE STAYED THE COURSE HERE...ALTHOUGH NAM
MOS IS SOMEWHAT COLDER TO MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT.
MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATIONS ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE STABLE IN THIS REGARD. OVERALL...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE
IDEA THAT THE NEXT PAC TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
THROUGHOUT SE IDAHO. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUCTUATIONS...HAVE
MAINTAINED A BROAD BRUSH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
TARGET THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WE WILL RESPOND
WITH STRONGER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SHEARING INLAND LATE TONIGHT WITH ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS/CIGS SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KSUN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING NEAR 5500 MSL. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MST
SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 281016
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN AND SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING TODAY...BUT PLACE LIKE MCCALL...
WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING...WILL NOT CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY...AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE IN
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH...AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SATURDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. THIS WILL ENTER BAKER COUNTY IN THE
MORNING...REACH THE BOISE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND GET TO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SHARPLY BEHIND. PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH MOST OF
THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF THE NOTABLE PRECIP. THROUGHOUT
THESE FIRST TWO DAYS...PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HEAVY.
LOCATIONS ABOVE AROUND 7000 FEET COULD SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW.
PLACES LIKE MCCALL...AT 5000 FEET...WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET
HEAVY SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ROAD TEMPS WILL PREVENT
THE SNOW FROM CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE POPULATED
AREAS...SO NO SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. HOWEVER...IF YOU PLAN
ON TRAVELING OVER THE HIGHER PASSES...BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW
AND SNOW-PACKED ROADS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND PRECIP
WILL DECREASE. ON SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS...
AND THESE WILL BE FOUND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS THAT WILL BE
GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. 00Z GFS/06Z NAM HAVE THE FASTEST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...REACHING MCCALL/BAKER CITY AROUND 18Z MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF
IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD AIR WILL
MIX OUT OF MOST OF THE TREASURE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE CA COAST AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING PACIFIC
MOISTURE SO HAVE LEFT POPS HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THE CWA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PACIFIC LOW OFF THE CA
COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOIST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
REMAIN ABOVE OR NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSNT
LINE...FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR
MVFR RAIN CHANGING TO IFR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE RIDGE AND MILD WX OVER THE WRN
U.S. AND A STRONG COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BC.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND /WITH LIGHT PCPN/ QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.  THE WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND
PUSHED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BC TROUGH
COMES IN.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY FROM NWRN
MONTANA THROUGH NRN OREGON TO AROUND 43/130 IN THE PACIFIC.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE STILL COMING IN ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA.
THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR NRN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SRN
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW WILL FALL IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS BELOW 6000 FEET MSL...LIKE SUMPTER/OR AND MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY IN IDAHO.  HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO CAN EXPECT 12-18
INCHES.  LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SNAKE BASIN WILL GET LITTLE IF
ANY NEW SNOW.  BUT RAPID FREEZING ON THE WET ROADS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRAVEL SUNDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOCAL ICE
ON VALLEY ROADS AND NEW SNOW ON MOUNTAIN ROADS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW SNOW
COVER.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE
TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO. AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+
INCH SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON ARCTIC
AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT ALL
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP/JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 280330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE RIDGE AND MILD WX OVER THE WRN
U.S. AND A STRONG COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN BC.  SATELLITE
SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND /WITH LIGHT PCPN/ QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES.  THE WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND
PUSHED SOUTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BC TROUGH
COMES IN.  STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY FROM NWRN
MONTANA THROUGH NRN OREGON TO AROUND 43/130 IN THE PACIFIC.  PACIFIC
MOISTURE STILL COMING IN ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DEVELOP
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA.
THE FRONT WILL REACH OUR NRN ZONES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SRN
ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL INCHES NEW SNOW WILL FALL IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS BELOW 6000 FEET MSL...LIKE SUMPTER/OR AND MCCALL AND
IDAHO CITY IN IDAHO.  HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO CAN EXPECT 12-18
INCHES.  LOWER VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SNAKE BASIN WILL GET LITTLE IF
ANY NEW SNOW.  BUT RAPID FREEZING ON THE WET ROADS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRAVEL SUNDAY MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO LOCAL ICE
ON VALLEY ROADS AND NEW SNOW ON MOUNTAIN ROADS.  TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW SNOW
COVER.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. WINDS ALOFT
NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 45 KTS.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY TO
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE
TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...
SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO. AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+
INCH SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON ARCTIC
AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT ALL
ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN FROM
B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP/JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272210
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+ INCH SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
ARCTIC AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN
FROM B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER. OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER
COUNTY EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SNOW ABOVE 5K FT MSL
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 272210
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS /THOUGH MAGIC VALLEY
WILL SEE TEMPS REACH 60 AGAIN ON FRIDAY/. MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONCENTRATE OVER EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND MTNS
OF SW IDAHO TONIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
DROPPING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COOLING ALOFT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RAMP UP STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DYNAMICS FROM UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC. THROUGH FRIDAY THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY /ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHTS ARE UNNECESSARY AS FORECAST 10+ INCH SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE ABOVE 6K FEET MSL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
ARCTIC AIR RE-INVADING THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTH BENEATH THE MOIST PACIFIC AIR. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING CHANGING TO SNOW AT
ALL ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY MUCH DRIER COLD AIR MOVING DOWN
FROM B.C. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE RETURNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING LESS
PROGRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...WHICH IS PREFERRED. BASED ON
THIS SLOWER TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE NEVADA
BORDER. OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER
COUNTY EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SNOW ABOVE 5K FT MSL
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH
TO A KREO-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...EAST
TO SOUTH 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MVFR/IFR
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SATURDAY AFTERNOON VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE NEVADA LINE AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. SUNDAY DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 271649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A
WEAKNESS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THIS MORNING...ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT 5K FEET MSL AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBOI SOUNDING. THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAY
ACROSS BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SHADOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OROGRAPHIC FLOW
INTO THE BOISE MTNS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WHICH FULLY MIX. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE MADE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
NORTH OF A KBKE-KLLJ LINE AFTER 18Z DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BY 00Z. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FT MSL NEAR KMYL TO 9000 FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES AND FROM THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 271649
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS SHOWING A
WEAKNESS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED
IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THIS MORNING...ABOVE THE SURFACE
INVERSION WHICH EXTENDS TO ABOUT 5K FEET MSL AS SEEN ON THE 12Z
KBOI SOUNDING. THIS WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LAY
ACROSS BAKER AND NORTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON AND
THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP SHADOW
MUCH OF THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH OROGRAPHIC FLOW
INTO THE BOISE MTNS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
WHICH FULLY MIX. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...BUT HAVE MADE
MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
NORTH OF A KBKE-KLLJ LINE AFTER 18Z DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BY 00Z. SNOW LEVEL 6500 FT MSL NEAR KMYL TO 9000 FT MSL ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER. MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES AND FROM THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI
TO THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A
KBKE-KSUN LINE BECOMING OBSCURED AFTER 18Z THU WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500FT NEAR KMYL AND 8500FT NEAR
NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WSW 35-50KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 271045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
345 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALOFT...A WEAKENING RIDGE
AXIS IS PASSING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SW
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM. AFTER A VERY WARM WED...THANKSGIVING WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS MILD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...MORE OR LESS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO BOISE TO
FAIRFIELD. SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO
6500 FEET IN THE NORTH TODAY...AND WILL COME DOWN TO A RANGE OF
FROM AROUND 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE
NORTH TOMORROW. TOMORROW...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
LIKE TODAY...BUT THE LINE WILL CREEP SOUTH IN SE OREGON LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SE OREGON.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. THE TIMING OF
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IS VERY LOW AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA
IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID CLOUD DECKS. MOUNTAINS NORTH OF A
KBKE-KSUN LINE BECOMING OBSCURED AFTER 18Z THU WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500FT NEAR KMYL AND 8500FT NEAR
NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS 12KT OR LESS EXCEPT IN SOUTHEAST
OREGON SW 15-25KT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET MSL...WSW 35-50KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KPIH 271022
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. SHOULD HAVE
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS
START OUT ABOVE 6500 FEET TODAY AND DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH IDAHO. SOME OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD GET THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. IT APPEARS THE MOST
DIFFICULT DRIVING PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z
ECMWF WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
RESUMED THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. THUS
HAVE TOSSED THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND NUDGED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING THE NEXT PAC LOW ADVANCING TOWARD
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A MODEST INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THE LOW FINALLY
SWINGS INLAND WITH A GOOD SHOT OF ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
THROUGHOUT SE IDAHO WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW STREAMS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE NW COAST. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 270345
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
845 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF
THE NW COAST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN GET HERE DUE
TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WRN U.S.  DRY MILD WX WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR CWA THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES.  A COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL
COME SOUTH THROUGH BC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND OUR NRN ZONES WILL
DEFINITELY GET QUITE A BIT COLDER BY SUNDAY.  MODELS DIFFER ABOUT
WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL REACH OUR SRN ZONES...GFS SAYS NO...ECM SAYS
YES...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE COLDER ECM.  IF THE ECM
VERIFIES THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR SRN ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...CHANGING TO
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.  AFTERNOON FORECAST FAVORED THE COLDER
ECM AND WE SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG KMYL AND VICINITY.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SPREADING INTO BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MORNING...INCREASING TO A
CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE.  SURFACE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY
20 TO 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATER-VAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A LINE
FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING THROUGH THE
MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000 TO
6000 FT MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS TOWARDS THE
END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL
SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY VARIABLES.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...SO
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....EP/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP



000
FXUS65 KBOI 262148
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACNW AND IDAHO BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES /59 AT BOISE SO FAR/ AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS WEST CANADA PUSHES SOUTH.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SE PART OF
THE GULF OF AK. TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WATERVAPOR AND AIRCRAFT /
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS AND RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
EAST AND LOOKS TO AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TO NE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO. THE CANADIAN TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
WINDS FOR ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG
LIFT ARE POISED UPSTREAM TO THE WEST WHILE MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
LOOM TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS FRIDAY
NIGHT WEARS ON...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST TIMES THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR A
LINE FROM BURNS TO BAKER AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND BE PASSING
THROUGH THE MAGIC VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DROP TO VALLEY
FLOORS TOWARDS THE END OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...SO MAJOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST ONLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE...POSSIBLY 10-15 DEGREES...FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. WHILE
THIS COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...A CUTOFF LOW
WILL POSITION ITSELF OFF OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA FROM SOUTH THE NORTH SOMETIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THIS FRONT IN ABOUT
12 HOURS SOONER THAN THE ECMWF...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR MANY
VARIABLES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AS THAT CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SO FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO AS TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
EXIST 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 28/18Z IN WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WEST AT 35 TO 50 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 262052
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US TODAY WILL FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW BY THU NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME PAC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO ID...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS ON THU. A MAJOR UPPER WAVE OVER
BC WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW BY SAT MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE POLAR FRONT TO SLOWWLY SAG SOUTHWARD...FORCING PRECIP TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI THRU SAT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ON FRI...BUT OVER THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY SAT. LOOKS LIKE A SUBSTANTIAL FLOW OF PAC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO
THE MTNS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS/UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FRI AND SAT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS... INCLUDING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD SEE RAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THU THRU SAT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. WINTER STORM WRAPS UP
DURING THIS TIME. MAJOR CHANGE IS THE NORTHERLY WIND THAT BRINGS IN
POLAR AIR AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BOTH
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE SAME SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THE ECMWF BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE
PART OF THE FORECAST AFTER SUN NIGHT. THIS IS BECAUSE OF A SPLIT
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT
MERGES OVER OR NEAR IDAHO. THE GFS KEEPS SOUTHERN IDAHO ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PUMPING UP WARM
MOIST AIR FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURS THAN
SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN IDAHO ON THE COLD SIDE...WHICH HAS LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE COLDER AIR. WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT IS
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD. LATELY THE GFS HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER...BUT BOTH FRANKLY HAVE BEEN SCORING LOW IN THE
VERIFICATION DEPARTMENT WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE ALONE AND WAIT FOR SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP.
MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER EASTERN IDAHO ARE FINALLY
RELAXING A LITTLE BIT AND WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST AS STRONG. DRY AIR
BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE ELEVATED WIND
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MORE FOG OR STRATUS. CIG DEVELOPS DURING THU
MORNING...LOWERS THU NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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