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000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNEDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE TO
NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ANY SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
KMYL AREAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE 15-25 KTS THROUGH UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010929
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNEDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE TO
NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. ANY SMOKE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
KMYL AREAS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
TO 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE 15-25 KTS THROUGH UP THROUGH 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 010907
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING MORE WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE FIRST CHUNK OF A LARGE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
DRIVE THROUGH A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN
THURSDAY BY AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION ON THE WEEKEND. BEST DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION
STILL APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT IN HIGHEST CHANCES
THOSE TWO DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A WARMUP TO BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AT KPIH AND KIDA. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW WILL TURN THE
UPPER FLOW TO SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER
ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON A
MORE POSITIVE NOTE...MIN HUMIDITIES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE FOUND
FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG. STILL ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. IT LOOKS BREEZY ON THURSDAY...BUT
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THERE IS ALSO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 010235
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST DEEPENS AND PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRY PATTERN. EXPECTING
WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. ANY SMOKE
LAYERS OR REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KBKE AND KMYL TERMINALS AND POINTS NORTH AND
WEST. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE OREGON. W-SW WINDS 15-25 KTS ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 312051
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DIRECT A WARM
AND DRY AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. SOME OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING BAKER COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE BOTH MARGINAL...BUT
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN BAKER COUNTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.  AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH.  THIS TROUGH SLOWLY OPENS UP
AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATED A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL BE.  AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO BAKER COUNTY OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  FRONT SEEMS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BUT AS THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHIFTS TO EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST.  CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW BUT
THINKING IS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL 10-15 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS AND HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS
IN THE 60S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND
VICINITY INCREASING SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 311956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND OVER EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE WASHINGTON COAST WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DELAYS
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOT BEFORE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE TOWARDS SATURDAY BUT MOVE THE LOW BY THEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET...BOTH FOR LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY AND THE EAST IDAHO STATE FAIR IN BLACKFOOT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND MAY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE GIVES KIDA STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS TODAY SO MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY BUT NOT QUITE AS BREEZY TODAY WITH A STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT WINDS REMAIN
UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG WA/OR COAST AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SE BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST
TRENDS FOR FIRE ZONE 410 WITH RESPECT TO COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RH
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FIRE ZONES 475 AND 476...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY FOR FIRE ZONE
410...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONCERNS.
MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF IDAHO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 311956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND OVER EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE WASHINGTON COAST WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DELAYS
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOT BEFORE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE TOWARDS SATURDAY BUT MOVE THE LOW BY THEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET...BOTH FOR LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY AND THE EAST IDAHO STATE FAIR IN BLACKFOOT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND MAY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE GIVES KIDA STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS TODAY SO MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY BUT NOT QUITE AS BREEZY TODAY WITH A STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT WINDS REMAIN
UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG WA/OR COAST AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SE BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST
TRENDS FOR FIRE ZONE 410 WITH RESPECT TO COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RH
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FIRE ZONES 475 AND 476...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY FOR FIRE ZONE
410...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONCERNS.
MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF IDAHO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 311956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND OVER EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE WASHINGTON COAST WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DELAYS
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOT BEFORE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE TOWARDS SATURDAY BUT MOVE THE LOW BY THEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET...BOTH FOR LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY AND THE EAST IDAHO STATE FAIR IN BLACKFOOT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND MAY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE GIVES KIDA STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS TODAY SO MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY BUT NOT QUITE AS BREEZY TODAY WITH A STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT WINDS REMAIN
UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG WA/OR COAST AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SE BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST
TRENDS FOR FIRE ZONE 410 WITH RESPECT TO COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RH
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FIRE ZONES 475 AND 476...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY FOR FIRE ZONE
410...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONCERNS.
MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF IDAHO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 311956
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ANTICIPATED DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND OVER EXPOSED HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE WASHINGTON COAST WHICH RESULTS IN SLOWER MOVEMENT AND DELAYS
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS UNTIL THURSDAY AND THE
REST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO NOT BEFORE FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES
INCREASE TOWARDS SATURDAY BUT MOVE THE LOW BY THEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL OREGON. THE DIFFERENCE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE GET...BOTH FOR LOCAL WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY AND THE EAST IDAHO STATE FAIR IN BLACKFOOT. WILL PROBABLY
SEE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND MAY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
WITH SOME PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUIDANCE GIVES KIDA STRONGEST WIND
SPEEDS TODAY SO MAY SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY BUT NOT QUITE AS BREEZY TODAY WITH A STABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...BUT WINDS REMAIN
UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA. PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG WA/OR COAST AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SE BRITISH
COLUMBIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING FORECAST
TRENDS FOR FIRE ZONE 410 WITH RESPECT TO COMBINATION OF WINDS AND RH
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN FIRE ZONES 475 AND 476...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD
STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT. THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY FOR FIRE ZONE
410...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED FLAG CONCERNS.
MODELS SUPPORT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF IDAHO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 311530
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
WARMER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON WHERE HIGHS WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER VISIBILITIES AROUND
MCCALL DUE TO WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.  KMYL AND VICINITY
INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310912
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
312 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NO
RAIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS REBOUND TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. PATCHY SMOKE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO /MAINLY
COUNCIL NORTHWARD/ FROM ONGOING FIRES ACROSS THE NW AND NEW
STARTS IN CENTRAL IDAHO...DUE TO STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH
SATURDAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN THE
DETAILS BUT AGREE IN GENERAL ON DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COAST AND BRINGING IT SLOWLY INLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MODEL DIFFER ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...BUT
BY MONDAY EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE ON SATURDAY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE MAINLY LESS THEN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP
TO 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL. AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KPIH 310856
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE AFTERNOON WIND INCREASES TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE ALL THREE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME LONG TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
MOVE A TROF EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH
THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EUROPEAN HOLDS IN BACK AND DOES NOT PUSH IT
THROUGH IDAHO UNTIL SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS THROUGH A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF CORRECT SOLUTION MAIN TREND IS
IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. EUROPEAN IS WETTER
LONGER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
DRIES IT OUT BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
THIS AFTN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO LOWER READINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG VALUES. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 310856
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE AFTERNOON WIND INCREASES TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE ALL THREE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME LONG TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
MOVE A TROF EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH
THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EUROPEAN HOLDS IN BACK AND DOES NOT PUSH IT
THROUGH IDAHO UNTIL SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS THROUGH A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF CORRECT SOLUTION MAIN TREND IS
IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. EUROPEAN IS WETTER
LONGER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
DRIES IT OUT BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
THIS AFTN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO LOWER READINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG VALUES. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 310856
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
256 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE AFTERNOON WIND INCREASES TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE ALL THREE DAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME LONG TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS
MOVE A TROF EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH
THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EUROPEAN HOLDS IN BACK AND DOES NOT PUSH IT
THROUGH IDAHO UNTIL SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS THROUGH A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. REGARDLESS OF CORRECT SOLUTION MAIN TREND IS
IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. EUROPEAN IS WETTER
LONGER THAN THE GFS WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS
DRIES IT OUT BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GK

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
THRU TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
THIS AFTN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOW
TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO LOWER READINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG VALUES. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 310310
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY CAUSING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
CLOUD DECK WILL DECREASE OVER OUR REGION. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
SHOWERS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL
IDAHO WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET ALOFT.
AN INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCTION VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310310
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY CAUSING SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
CLOUD DECK WILL DECREASE OVER OUR REGION. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE
SHOWERS AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT. NO FURTHER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL
IDAHO WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET ALOFT.
AN INCREASE IN SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCTION VISIBILITY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA/JC



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/JC
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 302043
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS IN NRN-MOST ZONES THIS EVENING...
NO MORE PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY.  COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY.  ON TUESDAY...EVEN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY...WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK FROM
WESTERLY TO SWLY AND WE EXPECT ANOTHER 5-8 DEGS WARMING. AS FOR MIN
TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGS WARMER
THAN TONIGHT/S MINS.  LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST FROM ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL USHER INTO SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS NOW FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
OR/WA/ID BORDER FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PROMOTE EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF KBKE-KMYL. SURFACE
WINDS...GENERALLY W-NW 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/JC
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 302013
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
213 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN
CUSTER COUNTY. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY UNDER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY FOR A BREEZY DAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO IN WARM SOUTHERLY AIR UNTIL
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WERE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...BUT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT MODELS KEEP
ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH OF KSUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS EXPECTING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AT KIDA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA/OR
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO LEMHI
COUNTY. A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME RIDGE-TOP WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH. HUMIDITY IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF
THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT WE MAY SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATE LOW
HUMIDITY AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF FIRE ZONE
476 THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING A RED FLAG AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS BREEZY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WINDS MAY PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK
DRY COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 302013
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
213 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN
CUSTER COUNTY. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY UNDER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY FOR A BREEZY DAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO IN WARM SOUTHERLY AIR UNTIL
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WERE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...BUT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT MODELS KEEP
ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH OF KSUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS EXPECTING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AT KIDA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA/OR
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO LEMHI
COUNTY. A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME RIDGE-TOP WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH. HUMIDITY IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF
THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT WE MAY SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATE LOW
HUMIDITY AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF FIRE ZONE
476 THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING A RED FLAG AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS BREEZY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WINDS MAY PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK
DRY COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 302013
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
213 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN
CUSTER COUNTY. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY UNDER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY FOR A BREEZY DAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO IN WARM SOUTHERLY AIR UNTIL
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WERE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...BUT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT MODELS KEEP
ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH OF KSUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS EXPECTING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AT KIDA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA/OR
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO LEMHI
COUNTY. A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME RIDGE-TOP WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH. HUMIDITY IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF
THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT WE MAY SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATE LOW
HUMIDITY AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF FIRE ZONE
476 THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING A RED FLAG AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS BREEZY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WINDS MAY PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK
DRY COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 302013
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
213 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN
CUSTER COUNTY. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OFF NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DRY UNDER FLAT WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS MID WEEK. THERE
WILL STILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT COMING IN WEDNESDAY FOR A BREEZY DAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WAS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE DELAYED
ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO IN WARM SOUTHERLY AIR UNTIL
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WERE THE SINGLE BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST. RS

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY...BUT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON MAY
PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT MODELS KEEP
ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH OF KSUN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUS EXPECTING TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS AT KIDA WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.  HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL WA/OR
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO LEMHI
COUNTY. A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOME RIDGE-TOP WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH. HUMIDITY IS ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF
THE COOLER AIRMASS...BUT WE MAY SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS CREATE LOW
HUMIDITY AROUND THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS OF FIRE ZONE
476 THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING A RED FLAG AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS BREEZY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WINDS MAY PICK UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG A WEAK
DRY COLD FRONT...BUT THE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDES REINFORCEMENT. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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