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000
FXUS65 KBOI 230926
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
TREASURE VALLEY WERE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. COLDEST READINGS...
WHICH WERE FOUND IN NAMPA...EAGLE...AND MOUNTAIN HOME...WERE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 32F OR COLDER IN PORTIONS OF
THE TREASURE VALLEY. THUS...THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM MDT. A BAND OF CLOUDS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY HAS SLOWED DOWN THE COOLING THERE AS TEMPS WERE AT OR ABOVE
40F. HOWEVER...THE BAND MAY SHIFT TO THE EAST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FROST TO FORM IN SOME AREAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR NOW...WILL
ALLOW THE FROST ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT.
OTHERWISE...A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A
SECOND ONE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-ONTARIO-IDAHO CITY LINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY - WHEN IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA.
HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ARE FORECAST AS A
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES /FROM THE WEST/ IN ITS WAKE. SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY...BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
INLAND AND KEEPS COOLER/WETTER WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST DAYS OVERALL.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR THROUGH 18Z. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW
IDAHO AFTER 18Z. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 5000 TO 6500 FT MSL. MINOR
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /SAME AREAS/ BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z.
LIGHT W/NW SURFACE WINDS - EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY AND AVERAGE 10 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING IDZ012-014.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING IDZ016.
OR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING ORZ064.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT
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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230907
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW IS STILL PARKED ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS MORNING. A RATHER NARROW BAND OF RAIN
AND SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6000FT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM NEAR/WEST OF BURLEY NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIE
OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ANY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN/WILL FALL WITHIN THIS BAND SHOULD STICK
TO NON-ROAD SURFACES. OTHERWISE...WE ARE WAITING FOR THE NEXT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
KICK OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BENCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SNAKE PLAIN COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM AS THE WAVE RACES
NORTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A CHANCE OF A STORM
DEVELOPING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. AS THE WAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT AND BY SUNRISE ONLY EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL. IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BEAR LAKE. THE REST OF US WILL
BE AROUND 32-42 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 32-36 DEGREES WITH
SOME SPOTS JUST ABOVE THAT ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
BENCHES. THERE IS SOME WIND IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY KEEP ANY FROST FROM FORMING. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NOT
ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THE
DAY SHIFT WILL MAKE THE FINAL CALL.
THE MAIN PART OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY SWING NORTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY AND INTO CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS GOING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING THAT WILL MEET IMPACT THRESHOLDS EVEN ON AREA
LAKES. WE WILL WARM UP WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 70S IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A SECOND SYSTEM SWINGS INLAND AND ACROSS
IDAHO. EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL JUST BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW AT MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS AT NIGHT
AND IN THE EARLY MORNING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON TRAVEL OR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEYS AND 50/60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM MOVING INTO IDAHO BY MIDWEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND IN THIS PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION... DEEP UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER WASHINGTON WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE
CENTRAL AND ERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER MID-LEVEL CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MENTION OF VCTS MAY BE
REQUIRED AT KSUN GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO A BROADER AREA OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE.
HUSTON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER
WASHINGTON WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING A BROADER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO.
HUSTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 230401
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1001 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...SNOW LEVELS THIS EVENING HAVE INCHED LOWER IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AREA SOUTH OF BURLEY...CONVECTION MAY HAVE A
LITTLE HAND HERE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME MIDDLE 30
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 6000 AND 7500 FEET ELEVATION. SPOTTER NEAR
MALTA REPORTED LIGHT SNOW IN THE AIR. PRECIPITATION IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE GROWING WEAKER TO THE SOUTH AND MAY ONLY LAST
ANOTHER 2 OR 3 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY MAY BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. RS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO BC. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. SW WINDS ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FCST AREA ON THE DRY SIDE DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTH FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL AGAIN ON THU...BUT WILL MODERATE FRI AND SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW LOSES INFLUENCE. TEMPS THU AND FRI MORNING MAY FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS BOTH SHOWING A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM. GFS DRIVES THROUGH UPPER TROFS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN LEANS MORE TOWARD SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY BUT WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BEST PERIODS. GFS
DRIER ON SUNDAY WHILE EUROPEAN DRIEST ON MONDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN
THE CHANCE DAILY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GK
AVIATION...15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
HAVE PERSISTED TODAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT WITH STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND COLD
FRONT WEAKENING. WINDS AT SNAKE PLAIN SITES SHOULD BE MORE IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR SUN AND
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 230247
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
848 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...GIVEN THE EARLY EVENING DRYNESS...CLEAR SKIES...
AND SLACKENING NORTHWEST WINDS WE WILL SHORTLY UPGRADE CURRENT
FROST ADVISORY TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
TREASURE VALLEY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH WIND
AND CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE WITH A FROST ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY WILL BE UPDATED 1 OR 2 DEGS COLDER BUT
THAT/S ALL IT TAKES TO QUALIFY FOR A FREEZE WARNING. UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER INTERIOR WA/OR THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY FILLING AND MODERATING. LATER FRIDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMING WILL CONTINUE. THROUGH FRIDAY
WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES CLOSEST TO THE LOW CENTER...HARNEY AND BAKER
COUNTIES IN OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO...BUT
OTHER ZONES WILL STAY DRY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ON THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH INTO NEVADA AND WEST INTO SOUTHEAST
OREGON. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS 09Z-15Z. AFTER 18Z SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BAKER AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON. SNOW
LEVELS...5500-6500 FEET MSL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE NORTHWEST UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL...AND GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DECREASE. WITH VERY COOL AIR...DECREASING CLOUDS...AND WEAKENING
WINDS OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST IN THE MORNING.
THEREFORE...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TREASURE AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING TO THE MID 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY IS
ONLY FOR TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AFTER HAVING HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THU...WE WILL HAVE READINGS JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT THURSDAY
IDZ012-014-016.
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT THURSDAY
ORZ064.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH
000
FXUS65 KBOI 222054
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
254 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP STRONG CUT OFF UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP US COOL...AND GIVE US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW DECREASE. WITH VERY COOL AIR...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND WEAKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR FROST IN THE MORNING. THEREFORE...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING TO THE MID 30S IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS RISE FRIDAY...TEMPS
WILL WARM AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY IS ONLY FOR TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. AFTER HAVING HIGH TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THU...WE WILL HAVE READINGS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF A
KBNO- KONO-KSUN LINE. SNOW LEVELS FROM 3500 FT TO 5500 FT MSL.
AFTER 06Z SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO...SO
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL VALLEY FOG IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AT OR NEAR KMYL. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 05Z. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 20
KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT THURSDAY
IDZ012-014-016.
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM MDT THURSDAY
ORZ064.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA/WH
AVIATION.....JA
000
FXUS65 KPIH 221934
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
134 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER
THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO BC. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO MAINLY FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. SW WINDS ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FCST AREA ON THE DRY SIDE DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
NORTH FRI AND SAT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL AGAIN ON THU...BUT WILL MODERATE FRI AND SAT AS THE
UPPER LOW LOSES INFLUENCE. TEMPS THU AND FRI MORNING MAY FALL INTO
THE MID 30S IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS BOTH SHOWING A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM. GFS DRIVES THROUGH UPPER TROFS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN LEANS MORE TOWARD SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY BUT WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON BEST PERIODS. GFS
DRIER ON SUNDAY WHILE EUROPEAN DRIEST ON MONDAY. FOR NOW KEPT IN
THE CHANCE DAILY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND 50S AND 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS
HAVE PERSISTED TODAY AT BYI...PIH AND IDA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT WITH STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND COLD
FRONT WEAKENING. WINDS AT SNAKE PLAIN SITES SHOULD BE MORE IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY. WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR SUN AND
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 221553
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS...WITH SNOW
ABOVE 5500 FEET MSL AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX BELOW...IS MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
UNLIKELY BELOW 3500 FEET. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO THE BOISE AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR IN
SE OREGON...AND THIS CLEARING AREA WILL SPREAD EAST AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL...WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT...CU WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT EVEN IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY...AND WE MAY SEE FROST IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. WE ARE CONSIDERING THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF A KBNO-KONO-KSUN
LINE THROUGH 00Z. SNOW LEVELS FROM 3500 FT TO 5500 FT MSL.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS...
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS EAST OF KMUO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO
OUR WEST WILL SPIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA /WASHINGTON AND
OREGON/ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PRECIP HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONE AREA OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW SITUATED OVER
EASTERN BAKER COUNTY. THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AND WILL REACH THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AROUND 5000 FEET SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN MCCALL
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS ABOVE
5000 FEET THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW WILL SEND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH
TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
TODAY BUT WILL BE LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN IN POSITION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THIS PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING AN OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DESPITE PATTERN CHANGE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ON ITS
HEELS WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT - USHERING IN A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....MT
000
FXUS65 KPIH 221228 AAA
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
628 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...WE WENT AHEAD AND STARTED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW AS
WINDS ARE ALREADY HITTING THE LOW END THRESHOLDS FOR THIS IMPACT. KEYES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BASICALLY SIT AND SPIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST...OCCASIONALLY SENDING WAVES OF ENERGY AROUND
IT ACROSS IDAHO. THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS GETTING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK END TO THINGS. FOR
TODAY...FAVORED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF
IT AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CAUSE OF BIGGER WAVES ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...SO WE HAVE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FROM MID MORNING UNTIL SUNSET. WHILE NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SO THAT WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ACTUALLY JUST A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY...50 AND 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. SOME
LIGHT AND WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ABOVE 7000FT TODAY BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND LIKELY MELT ON IMPACT DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
RANGES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE UTAH BORDER.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FARTHER EAST WITH A LOW
CHANCE EVEN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BY MORNING THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE IN THE
6500-8000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT SO ANYWHERE FORM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT WILL
MELT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LOW
WILL SEND ANOTHER IMPULSE THROUGH AND THEN THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. IT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
DURING THE PERIOD AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS...BUT WE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM FROST/FREEZE ISSUES
IT APPEARS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM WHICH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MEMORIAL DAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AGREEING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH
TO BRING THE MAIN STORM AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. FOR NOW...WE ARE
MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL BE WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE MOST
PART. DO BE PREPARED FOR SOME COLDER MORNINGS IN HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. KEYES
AVIATION...COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT INTO WYOMING THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KSUN TO KRXE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THESE
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE MVFR
CEILINGS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KTS IN SOME AREAS.
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. DMH
FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
OREGON/WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 220929
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO
OUR WEST WILL SPIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA /WASHINGTON AND
OREGON/ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PRECIP HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONE AREA OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW SITUATED OVER
EASTERN BAKER COUNTY. THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AND WILL REACH THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AROUND 5000 FEET SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN MCCALL
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS ABOVE
5000 FEET THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW WILL SEND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH
TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
TODAY BUT WILL BE LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN IN POSITION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THIS PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING AN OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DESPITE PATTERN CHANGE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ON ITS
HEELS WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT - USHERING IN A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR-IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL ROUGHLY RANGE FROM 3500 FT TO 5500 FT MSL. -SN POSSIBLE AT BOTH
KBKE AND KMYL. LIGHT TO MODERATE W/NW SFC WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
BEFORE 18Z...THEN GUSTS TO 30 KTS /MAINLY E OF KMUO/ THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....MT
AVIATION.....MT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 220928
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
325 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST TO
OUR WEST WILL SPIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA /WASHINGTON AND
OREGON/ FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PRECIP HAS BEEN MEAGER THUS FAR
OVERNIGHT WITH ONE AREA OF VALLEY RAIN/MTN SNOW SITUATED OVER
EASTERN BAKER COUNTY. THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST AND WILL REACH THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS ARE AROUND 5000 FEET SO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN MCCALL
WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS ABOVE
5000 FEET THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF SE OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW WILL SEND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AS WINDS DIMINISH
TOWARD MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS
TODAY BUT WILL BE LIGHTER ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN IN POSITION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THIS PATTERN...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SE OREGON/SW IDAHO FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING AN OPEN PACIFIC TROUGH TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. DESPITE PATTERN CHANGE...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ON ITS
HEELS WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT - USHERING IN A MUCH WETTER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR-IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
TERRAIN THROUGH 00Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL ROUGHLY RANGE FROM 3500 FT TO 5500 FT MSL. -SN POSSIBLE AT BOTH
KBKE AND KMYL. LIGHT TO MODERATE W/NW SFC WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
BEFORE 18Z...THEN GUSTS TO 30 KTS /MAINLY E OF KMUO/ THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 20 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CB/JA
000
FXUS65 KPIH 220927
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
327 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BASICALLY SIT AND SPIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST...OCCASIONALLY SENDING WAVES OF ENERGY AROUND
IT ACROSS IDAHO. THERE IS ALSO A LOT OF DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS STORM. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS GETTING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK END TO THINGS. FOR
TODAY...FAVORED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF
IT AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. 15-25 MPH WINDS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
CAUSE OF BIGGER WAVES ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...SO WE HAVE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FROM MID MORNING UNTIL SUNSET. WHILE NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND/OR
SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SO THAT WOULD BE THE MOST
LIKELY PLACE FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL ACTUALLY JUST A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY...50 AND 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. SOME
LIGHT AND WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ABOVE 7000FT TODAY BUT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND LIKELY MELT ON IMPACT DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
RANGES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE UTAH BORDER.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FARTHER EAST WITH A LOW
CHANCE EVEN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. THIS BAND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND BY MORNING THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE IN THE
6500-8000FT RANGE OVERNIGHT SO ANYWHERE FORM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT WILL
MELT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LOW
WILL SEND ANOTHER IMPULSE THROUGH AND THEN THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. IT WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
DURING THE PERIOD AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS...BUT WE SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM FROST/FREEZE ISSUES
IT APPEARS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM WHICH FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
MEMORIAL DAY. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AGREEING WITH HOW FAR SOUTH
TO BRING THE MAIN STORM AS IT CROSSES THE STATE. FOR NOW...WE ARE
MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH. IT WILL BE WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE MOST
PART. DO BE PREPARED FOR SOME COLDER MORNINGS IN HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. KEYES
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT INTO WYOMING THROUGH THE
MORNING THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KSUN TO KRXE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR WITH THESE
SHOWERS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE MVFR
CEILINGS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-30KTS IN SOME AREAS.
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. DMH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP PACIFIC LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
OREGON/WASHINGTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DMH
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 220309
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 PM THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL
IDAHO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING WERE
ISOLATED FROM AROUND LOWELL TO STANLEY AND SUN VALLEY. THERE WERE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA TODAY GENERALLY NORTH OF
BURNS...AROUND WEISER AND BANNER SUMMIT. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 45 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE
FRONT THIS EVENING WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. TWIN BUTTES RAWS
EAST OF BOISE HIT 90 DEGREES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE AS OF
8 PM BAKER CITY AND BURNS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S BEHIND THE
FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE WEAKENING AND WINDS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
AREAS. UPPER LOW OVER WA/OREGON LOOKS TO REMAIN THERE WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER
COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 9K FEET MSL WILL LOWER TO
7K FEET MSL BY 06Z AND 5K FEET MSL BY 12Z. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 30 KTS AT 10K
FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE STRONG CUT OFF LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SE
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THEN STALL GENERALLY OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON TOMORROW. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG AND A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO TO FAIRFIELD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS BY 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THU
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY 5 TO 8
DEGREES ON THU...COMPARED TO WED/S HIGHS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MONDAY AND
BEYOND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....CB/JA
000
FXUS65 KBOI 212029
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
229 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE STRONG CUT OFF LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SE
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT THEN STALL GENERALLY OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON TOMORROW. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH SE
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG AND A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO TO FAIRFIELD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALSO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION...LOWERING HIGH TEMPS BY 20 TO 25 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THU
AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY 5 TO 8
DEGREES ON THU...COMPARED TO WED/S HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY SUNDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MONDAY AND
BEYOND THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SE TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS
REACHING 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. AT 20Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING INTO SE OREGON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
KBNO-KBKE BETWEEN 20-21Z AND THEN PUSH THROUGH SW IDAHO FROM 00Z-03Z. SURFACE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW AT 15-25 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL OREGON
AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SW WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING 25 KTS UP
TO 10K FEET MSL.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....CB/JA
AVIATION.....CB
000
FXUS65 KPIH 211944
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT OVER OREGON AND WOBBLE BETWEEN OR AND WA THRU FRIDAY. SW
FLOW ALOFT IS STRENGTHENING OVER ID AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ON WED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WED. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEWER GUIDANCE FOR
A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
THE PRECIP TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THRU FRIDAY. ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
...THUS TENDING DRY. RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS IN NE OR THIS
AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HEDGES
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEW GFS RUN SHOWING MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF NOW PUSHING THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SECOND TROF MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. IN GRIDS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS AT HAILEY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND KEPT OUT OF THE OTHER THREE SITES.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE PICKED UP AT
ALL FOUR SITES AND 10 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNSET.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 211547
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
947 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING WEATHER DAY STILL ON TAP WITH A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE
REGION TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ON TO THE PACIFIC
COAST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY RAPID PROGRESS AND WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL...PARTICULARLY IN SE OREGON...AND THERE COULD
BE ISOLATED INCIDENCES OF BLOWING DUST. BIG COOL DOWN COMING
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. NO CHANGES
PLANNED THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY UNDER BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SE TO
SW SURFACE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS WITH WINDS REACHING 20-30 KTS ACROSS
SE OREGON. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KBNO-KBKE 22Z-23Z...AND
THEN INTO SW IDAHO BY 01-02Z. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE NW AT 10-20 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SW WINDS ALOFT AVERAGING 25 KTS UP TO 10K
FEET MSL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM
DAY FOR A WHILE BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRAMATIC COOLING TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN HARNEY AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTIES. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND SW IDAHO THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH WITH THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
BURNS...ONTARIO...AND FAIRFIELD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER WITH VALLEY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON. MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR MIX RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOME AREAS...SUCH AS BAKER CITY AND MCCALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA BY EARLY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL...HOWEVER...QUICKLY MOVE INLAND /OVER OREGON/ FROM THE PACIFIC
- ALLOWING COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....CB
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....MT
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