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000
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 230258
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
858 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MTNS OF EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND SW
IDAHO AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS.  AT 02Z REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN AT KBKE.  AFTER 09Z
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO KBKE/KBNO/KMYL AND OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  THURSDAY MORNING THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS.  SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BECOMING BREEZY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 35 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....EP/AB




000
FXUS65 KPIH 230212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
812 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN OREGON WITHIN INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME.
00Z NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WHICH WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING   IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 230212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
812 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN OREGON WITHIN INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME.
00Z NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WHICH WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING   IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 222050
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
250 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REACH SE OREGON AND MOST OF SW
IDAHO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STALL OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST PLUME WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE GREATEST. THE ONLY
AREAS THAT MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ARE THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. QPF TOTALS /FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY/ WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH /0.10/ TO A QUARTER
/O.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A QUARTER /0.25 TO HALF
/0.50/ INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT /SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE/ ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW. GOOD MIXING WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. A HEADLINE MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WINDS DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DROP FROM OVER 10000 FEET
SATURDAY MORNING TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND A DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET IN BEHIND IT. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL
A TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE IN AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A
MORE SSWERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON A DAILY BASIS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
EACH PASSING TROUGH...POSSIBLY COMING IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR KMYL TO DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS BUT
WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KTS AS THURSDAY WEARS ON. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AT
KBOI.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP/AB
AVIATION.....EP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 221558
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
958 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...MORNING FOG /WHICH IS LOCALLY DENSE/ IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS /INCLUDING MCCALL/ WILL BURN OFF BY NOON. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A MOIST PACIFIC PLUME AND
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION WHICH RESIDE JUST TO OUR WEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE NOON AT KMYL...OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN IMPACTING KBNO AND KBKE THURSDAY MORNING. VCSH AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO SITES BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22/18Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS ALOFT REMAINING SW AT
20 TO 30 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220952
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
352 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INTERMOUNTAIN FOG AND
STRATUS WILL LIFT LATE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN POPS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SE OF BOISE THROUGH MUO/TWF/JER WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BKE-
MYL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WHEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OREGON BLM LANDS. HAVING PRECIP FURTHER SE SEEMS TO FIT
THE UPSTREAM SATIMG ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC WHICH SHOWED THE
MOISTURE AND JET AXIS HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF 40N AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE POISED TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE LARGE GULF
OF AK LOW FROM THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH WRN NOAM
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ENERGY DUE INLAND IN THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMING AND CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY AND WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10-20 DEGREES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL 5500 FEET MSL ON SUNDAY. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE
TROUGH EXITS. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF INTERMOUNTAIN IFR FOG/STRATUS INCLUDING KMYL
UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING AND VFR
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z. THURSDAY EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MTNS OBSCURED ESPECIALLY KBNO-KBOI-KJER
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SE-SW 10-20 KTS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 15KTS INCREASING TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KPIH 220859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER A TRANSIENT RIDGE AS IT
PASSES OVER IDAHO. AS RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST...IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND KEPT POPS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL
AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FURTHER NORTH. MODELS SHOWING A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC
NW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AND THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND LATE SATURDAY AND PUSHES RAIN THREAT FURTHER
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER AND 700 MB WIND PROGS SUGGEST BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ON SUNDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING 25 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

GFS BOOSTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AGAIN TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA PUSHING ONSHORE...THOUGH MODELS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING.

HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. A FEW LOW CLDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL RESULT IN RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY
...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE ROCKIES.  A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 220243
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
843 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF MCCALL THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING IN MTN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL
COVERED THOUGH DID MOVE BACK THE TIMING TO 06Z GIVEN CLOUD COVER
TRENDS ON THE IR SATELLITE. DRY AND CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT. WILL SEE TOO MUCH OF AN E-SE WIND IN
THE SNAKE VALLEY TO ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MUCH OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF IFR DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MTN
VALLEYS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS AT 10K FEET ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....SP/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 212052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS DECREASING OVER THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ARE
INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR FOG IN THE NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST SW-NE ORIENTED PACIFIC PLUME ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLUME WILL SLOWLY ENTER SE
OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /EXCLUDING THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE PLUME IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN AND NARROW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...THEREBY LIMITING THE
QPF AMOUNTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL BE MAINLY SW-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT ON SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH THAT WON/T MOVE IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT SWINGS UP INTO WASHINGTON AND NRN
IDAHO...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND BLUSTERY AS THE
STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS. SUNDAY
WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE
PACIFIC IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST IN THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BECOMING VFR ALL AREAS TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KMYL.
SFC WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W
20-30 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SP/AB
AVIATION.....SP




000
FXUS65 KPIH 212007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH
AND EAST AND BY MIDNIGHT...THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE NEAR ISLAND
PARK. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF AND WILL CANCEL
THE WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SHORT BREAK FROM ANY SHOWERS. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 135W...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN INCREASES SHARPLY..TAKING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WELL NORTH TO THE PAN HANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CAN MOVE
INLAND. THAT GIVES THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A CHANCE WARM UP ABOUT
15 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE THREE DAYS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. WELCOME
TO FALL WEATHER. RS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
WINDY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...VERY LIKELY SNOW DOWN TO THE 6000
FT ELEVATION IN PLACES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THIS
FEATURE...AND HAVE HAD IT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE ECMWF TAKES A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. THE GFS IS THE
EXACT OPPOSITE WITH A LOW CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A
LARGE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT. NCEP HAS NOT
PREFERRED THE DRY ECMWF...BUT HAS SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN DONE...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FOR SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT CONSIDERED A PROBLEM FOR ANY AIRDROME...AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. NO SERIOUS IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON WED.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 211556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS WAVE WAS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FROM SW
TO NW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE IN THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE SHOWERS /SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 6500 FEET/ WILL
PERSIST IN THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL...BUT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH 18Z...BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED IFR CIGS HAVE OCCURRED AT KJER...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
THE MTNS WITH MTNS OBSCURED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS. VFR TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY W 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 10 KFT WILL BE W 20-30
KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER N NV
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NORTH OF IT OVER SW IDAHO...WILL
LIFT N/NE TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL
THOUGH BY AFTERNOON THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL ID MTNS.
ADDITIONAL QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS 3AM- 6PM WILL BE AROUND TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 7500 FEET
THIS MORNING EXCEPT LOCALLY 6K FT THIS MORNING ACROSS
BAKER/ADAMS/VALLEY AND COUNTIES AND THEN TO AROUND 6500 FT THIS
EVENING. NEAR NW BAKER COUNTY ALREADY HAS 30F AT ANTHONY LAKES SKI
AREA. COOL AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL ID MTN SHOWERS THEN
MOSTLY DRY AND COOL ON WEDNESDAY AS A BUBBLE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AREAS OF FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MTNS EARLY WED. AM. TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
ABUNDANT SUN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
UPCOMING FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON. THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MOIST WSW FLOW WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE MAGIC VALLEY MAINLY DRY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY...DRYING OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 5000-6000 FT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ON MONDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








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