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000
FXUS65 KBOI 312110
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE OF A FALL-LIKE PATTERN
IS ON THE WAY FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON AS COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOW OFF THE WEST COAST IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND AS
IT WEAKENS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IT SPLITS FROM THE PARENT JET STREAM TO
THE NORTH. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY ARE AROUND 9000 FEET BUT
WILL DROP WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO AROUND 7000 FEET.
SNOW LEVEL FORECAST IS TRICKY BUT BELIEVE THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS
WILL COME AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON. ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE ADVISORY AS THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS COMES DURING THE
NIGHT WITH LESS MIXING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS
TRICKY WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE
MONDAY AS MOIST FLOW ENTERS THE PAC NW. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL ID MTNS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SE OREGON...THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND AREAS SOUTH
TO THE NV BORDER WILL SEE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION MOSTLY
ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST CENTRAL ID AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING UNDER AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CEILINGS.
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO SE OREGON BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z THIS EVENING...OBSCURING HIGHER MTNS. LOWER CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER SW IDAHO. LOWEST
CONDITIONS...TO INCLUDE WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE MTNS...WILL OCCUR FROM
20Z SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER SE OREGON BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND SW IDAHO AFTER 15Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO BY 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....DG/AB
AVIATION.....DG



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000
FXUS65 KPIH 312049
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
249 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING
INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY WITH
A STRONG JET CORE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.

TOMORROW THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE OVER IDAHO. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
TO 55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT. THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN MAY BE
NEEDED TO BE INCLUDED TO THE WIND ADVISORY..BUT CURRENTLY WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OF AROUND 35 MPH. STRONG DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS PARTICULARLY ALONG I-84 WHERE BLOWING DUST
COULD SHUT DOWN THE INTERSTATE BRIEFLY. PRECIPITATION WILL START
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR WESTERN BORDERS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD AIR WILL START MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DROPPING SNOW LEVELS FROM 8000 FEET TO 5500 FEET BY
SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOOR BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR ABOVE 5500
FEET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 3 PM MDT SATURDAY UNTIL 5
PM MST SUNDAY. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY
FLOOR. MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
LINGERING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUR EASTERN EDGES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INITIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD
EAST INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY
FLAT RIDGING WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THREAT REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN SNAKE PLAIN.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MID-DAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING AT 8000 FEET MSL AND DROPPING TO 4500 FEET
BY SUNDAY MORNING.  DSH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY IDZ017-021>025.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ABOVE 5500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 311602
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1002 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY SPLITTING OFF TOWARDS CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND ANOTHER WARM DAY ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND AREAS EAST. PRECIPITATION ON TRACK TO REACH
SOUTHEAST OREGON ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
OVERNIGHT. TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER SNOW LEVELS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. NO
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...
OBSCURING HIGHER MTNS. LOWER CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
OVER SW IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN OREGON SATURDAY MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SE OREGON AND
THE MTNS OF SW IDAHO WILL OBSCURE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE OVER SE OREGON EARLY SUNDAY AND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SW
IDAHO. GUSTY NW WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES IN STORE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...TO SHOWERY...COOL...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
OUR AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION RESIDES TO OUR
WEST...EXTENDING S-N ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OREGON. THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW IDAHO LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE DRY SW FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /SURFACE-ALOFT/ WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN SW IDAHO WHILE
CONTINUING IN SE OREGON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN NORTHERN NEVADA...AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL INDUCE A TIGHT NW-SE ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE STEENS MOUNTAIN OF SE
OREGON WHERE THE AMOUNTS EXCEED AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES /EXCEPT 6
INCHES OR MORE IN THE STEENS/ ABOVE 5000 FEET...WITH THE BULK OF
THE SNOW OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS
MORE MOISTURE INLAND STARTING MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS FALL OUT OF
PHASE... BUT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....DG
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 310922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BIG CHANGES IN STORE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FROM MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...TO SHOWERY...COOL...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
OUR AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING. A FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION RESIDES TO OUR
WEST...EXTENDING S-N ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OREGON. THIS
FRONTAL BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
INTO SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW IDAHO LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN THE DRY SW FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY. A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /SURFACE-ALOFT/ WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN SW IDAHO WHILE
CONTINUING IN SE OREGON ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN NORTHERN NEVADA...AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO S-CENTRAL IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL INDUCE A TIGHT NW-SE ACROSS SE OREGON WHERE IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST QPF
TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE STEENS MOUNTAIN OF SE
OREGON WHERE THE AMOUNTS EXCEED AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES /EXCEPT 6
INCHES OR MORE IN THE STEENS/ ABOVE 5000 FEET...WITH THE BULK OF
THE SNOW OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN AND COLDER SIDE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS
MORE MOISTURE INLAND STARTING MONDAY...BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS FALL OUT OF
PHASE... BUT SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
FROM THE WEST...BECOMING WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN EASTERN OREGON
BEFORE CROSSING INTO IDAHO ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000 FT MSL BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS BECOMING
WEST 15-25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO
25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KPIH 310921
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
321 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EVENTFUL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DRY DAY
TODAY WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVES ON SHORE SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY AND EVEN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SEEM TO HANG ONTO THE WARM AIR
LONGER AND SNOW LEVELS START OUT VERY HIGH ON SATURDAY AND THE
LATEST NAM MODEL HAS BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY.
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
DUE TO POSSIBLE DELAY IN ONSET OF COLD AIR AND SLOWER DROP IN SNOW
LEVELS. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION FROM NOON TO 6 PM
SATURDAY WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR DELAYING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS MAY STILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL TREND DOWN FROM AROUND 70
TODAY TO 60 SATURDAY TO LOW 40S SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GENERALLY EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCHES IN HIGH MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS FROM THIS STORM WITH MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH A TRANSITION FROM STRONG WINDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND SNOW SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING OFF
THE PACIFIC INTO OREGON AND INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OR JUST
TOUCHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL POUR THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SHOWERS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 310239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST THIS EVENING WITH LOTS OF
COLD CU WEST OF 130W.  TROUGH WILL COME IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
LATEST MODEL TIMING HAS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A MCCALL/ID
SWWD TO ROME/OR LINE AT SUNSET FRIDAY...WITH ALL THE PCPN BEHIND
THE FRONT.  PCPN WILL ENTER WRN IDAHO AFTER 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AND
COVER ALL IDAHO ZONES LATER SATURDAY.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
LOWER MAX TEMPS ABOUT 20F SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY.  SNOW
LEVEL WILL LOWER TO ABOUT 4200 FEET MSL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...OR LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOW ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE AT PASS LEVELS.  SIGNIFICANT W-E SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE SNAKE BASIN
SATURDAY AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...
BUT SO FAR GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT STRONG.  CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN-MOST IDAHO ZONES
SATURDAY BUT NONE OF THE MODELS HAS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX.  STILL...
GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS IT...THERE
SHOULD BE PRONOUNCED LIFT AT FROPA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT-BKN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT AT
AROUND 10K FT MSL...SOUTHWEST AT 25-35KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES FURTHER COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NE OREGON LATE
FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL IDAHO LATE SATURDAY
FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN FALLS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W-CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




000
FXUS65 KBOI 302101
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
301 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT CLOSE TO THE COAST FRIDAY AND BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THIS WILL
RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES...AREAS OF BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OVER OREGON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY. COOLING OF 2 TO 5
DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS OREGON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 10-20
DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MUCH COOLER WX. LOW LI AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NE OREGON LATE FRIDAY AND LOW LI WILL CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL
IDAHO LATE SATURDAY FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY FROM ONTARIO THROUGH TWIN
FALLS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH  TUESDAY...COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 5000 FEET BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE BLUE/W CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY
COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTH KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY AND A HAIR
WARMER THAN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 20-30KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA/AB
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 301927
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING TODAY
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND THE DEVELPING LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL RESULT
IN INCRREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
PRECIP OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
REMAINING AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTNS...WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AFTN. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY...BUT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SAT EVE AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ID. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN FLOOR BY SUN MORN. HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS DUE
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SNOW WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE SAT EVE THRU SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE ID/MT BORDER. THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN ALONG THE I-86/I-15 CORRIDOR WILL SEE SNOW SUN MORN AS THE
UPPER FLOW FAVORS THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPS WILL BE
BORDERLINE FOR SNOW...SO AROUND AN INCH AT THE VALLEY FLOOR AND UP
TO 3 INCHES ON THE BENCHES SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. STILL
MORE THAN 2 DAYS OUT...AND A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW COULD LEAVE THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH LITTLE PRECIP. THE MTNS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THRU FRI...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
ON SAT. SUN WILL BE MUCH COLDER. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE PACNW AND IDAHO WILL EXIT THE REGION WITH LINGERING ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INITIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD EAST INTO
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING
AND ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ELEVATED TERRAIN ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER
AND TO NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTY. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY TO THE
WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT FRUITLAND...
...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN
ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 301534 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE FOR FOG UNTIL NOON MAINLY ACROSS THE
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY. LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
TO THE WEISER BASIN IS LIFTING. FOG WAS SEEN ON WEB CAMS AT
FRUITLAND...ONTARIO AND I-95 AT SMOKEY BOULDER. /AMEND...FOG WAS
LOCALLY DENSE BETWEEN NAMPA AND MARSING AROUND 10 AM LATE THIS
MORNING./ DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. THAT SYSTEM IS
DUE IN ACROSS OREGON AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND ACROSS IDAHO LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEARBY RAIN ACROSS NE OREGON IS WITH A WARM
FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE AND E WA
THIS MORNING...NOT AFFECTING OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5-15KT...STRONGEST THROUGH MAGIC
VALLEY NEAR KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...SW 10-20KT
BECOMING SW 20-30KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...JDS
PREV LONG TERM....BW




000
FXUS65 KPIH 300942
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
342 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. AS A STRONG PACIFIC LOW
SYSTEM APPROACHES EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE EVEN MORE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING GOOD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR
MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS
DAYTIME HIGH TO SUNDAYS DAYTIME HIGH. EXPECT AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY AS LOW
AS 500O FEET. SNOW ON THE VALLEY FLOOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS POINT PARTICULARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

STORM SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SOME RESIDUAL
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. EXPECT COOL WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SOME MOISTURE TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS FORESEEN THAT COULD HELP AID
PRECIPITATION.

VALLE


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

VALLE



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION.

VALLE


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 300922
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
322 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH 5 PM MDT ON HALLOWEEN BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN BURNS AND BAKER CITY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENERGY DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK RIGHT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. BEFORE THE LOW MOVES IN...A FRONTAL BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...SPREADING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON
SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF AT AROUND 8000 FEET THEN FALL
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL AVERAGE 0.10-0.25 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50-1.00 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FURTHER TO AROUND 4500
FEET. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL WHICH COULD SEE ITS FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
ON SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT W-E SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHICH
COULD BE WINDY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT E-SE WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AT KBKE AND FROM
KMUO TO KJER. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT 15-25 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET
MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KBOI 300231 CCA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
831 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD INTO OREGON WITH A
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN OREGON...FRONT MOVING
NWD.  OUR SRN-MOST ZONES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED AND ARE ALREADY IN
THE WARM SECTOR.  CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN OTHER ZONES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
TODAY...POSSIBLY THE LAST REALLY WARM DAYS THIS SEASON.  PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OREGON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
WRN IDAHO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND MUCH COOLER WX...
ALREADY IN FORECAST.  FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS...SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4500 FEET MSL SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE LIGHT ON POST-FRONTAL WEST WINDS
SATURDAY.  WINDS MAY BE INCREASED WHEN ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT...EXCEPT EAST WINDS 10-20KT AT KJER AND KTWF
BY 30/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AROUND 10K FT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AT
15-25KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTENSIFIES THURSDAY...IT WILL HELP INDUCE
A SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES EVEN AS THE SUN FIGHTS TO GET THROUGH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS THU WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THU NIGHT A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO MUCH OF SE OREGON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL AGAIN OWING TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE MILD BECAUSE OF WINDS AND CLOUDS...WITH
READINGS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL SPLIT FROM THE MAIN
JET STREAM OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN IDAHO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS UP TO
1.00 INCH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY START OUT AROUND 9000 FEET
MSL AND DROP TO 4500 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF. SNOW
TOTALS ABOVE 7000 FEET COULD RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES WITH THIS
STORM WITH UP TO 8 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COOLEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE
OREGON AND THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE
5000 FT MSL. AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY MORNING CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL LESSEN AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO ABOUT 7000 FT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB




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