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000
FXUS65 KBOI 251543
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE ISSUED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO DUE TO FOG. FOG WAS
DENSE IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY...NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SE OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ARE
FORECAST THERE...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.
OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW COAST AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO
THE AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOG TO SEE IF FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY NEED ADJUSTING. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY WEST OF MERIDIAN INTO NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY THIS
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 18Z. ELSEWHERE VFR TODAY WITH AREAS
OF HIGH-LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH 10-20 KTS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20-40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 18Z.
WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 50 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING EAST
ACROSS HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO BECOMING
WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION. CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 12Z AND
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AFTER 18Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MAINLY
ISOLATED. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED IN
THE WARM SECTOR /INCLUDING AT BOISE/ UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST OVER A COUPLE HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SE
TO SW WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS AT 3 AM SO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 4 TO 6 AM AND MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
UP TO 30 MPH WINDS AND 50 MPH GUSTS LATER TODAY OVER SE OREGON
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SW
IDAHO AS WELL BUT MOSTLY GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AROUND 3 INCHES AS LOW AS 7000 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 DEGREES COLDER IN
OREGON AND 25 COLDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY VS. TODAY GOING
UP TODAY AND DOWN SUNDAY LIKE A SEE-SAW. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA
BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY THOUGH MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY IDZ012.
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY ORZ064.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 250916
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
316 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED IN
THE WARM SECTOR /INCLUDING AT BOISE/ UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST OVER A COUPLE HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SE
TO SW WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
NEARING THE COASTAL WATERS AT 3 AM SO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 4 TO 6 AM AND MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
UP TO 30 MPH WINDS AND 50 MPH GUSTS LATER TODAY OVER SE OREGON
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. LOCALLY BREEZY OVER SW
IDAHO AS WELL BUT MOSTLY GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...AROUND 3 INCHES AS LOW AS 7000 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 DEGREES COLDER IN
OREGON AND 25 COLDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO SUNDAY VS. TODAY GOING
UP TODAY AND DOWN SUNDAY LIKE A SEE-SAW. THIS IS DUE TO THE AREA
BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY THOUGH MODELS REMAIN SPLIT ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES WITH FOG THIS MORNING.
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO MOVE WEST OF KBOI BY 12Z WITH INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. KBKE AND KMYL WILL SEE DENSE FOG THROUGH LATE
MORNING. TODAY...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS IDAHO
WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN OREGON. WINDS AOB 10KFT
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS OVER ID AND SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 KTS
OVER EASTERN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM
     PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS



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000
FXUS65 KPIH 250855
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO. NAM SHOWS SIGNATURE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO LATER THIS EVENING AND DEVELOPS SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS WHILE GFS AND SREF FOCUS PRECIP AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
AROUND 4500-5500 FT AS THE TROUGH PASSES...BUT MOST OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN. THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS 1 TO 2
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
BE BREEZY...BUT IMPACTS AT THIS POINT LOOK FAIRLY LOW. FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HAVE TEMPS MUCH COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER. UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH
WEATHER BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SETTLED BY THE EVENING. LONG-TERM
MODELS MAINTAINING A RATHER MOIST FLOW OVER IDAHO THROUGH A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE...SO KEEPING POPS MOSTLY FOCUSED ON CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOME CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. SFC WINDS 15-20KTS THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH GOOD SUPPORT AT MID LEVELS FOR GUSTS 30KTS. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND ONSET
OF PRECIP. SHOWERS BEGIN OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY. VFR/BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KSUN THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL THO CEILINGS
LOWER. ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE 12Z COULD INITIATE MIXED MVFR
CONDITIONS. TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STAY
RAIN EVEN AT KSUN. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH 700MB WINDS ROUGHLY
30KTS. BREEZY 15-20MPH WINDS THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES MAINLY >20PCT BUT COULD SEE A FEW AREAS WITH
ELEVATED CONDITIONAL CONCERN. PRECIP ARRIVES OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND DEAMPLIFIES.
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP MOST AREAS OCCURS ON SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE MIDDAY. INCREASED SFC GRADIENT BUT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW.
COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR 20-25MPH WINDS ESPECIALLY POST-FRONT. MUCH
COLDER AIR AND PRECIP SUPPORT HIGHER HUMIDITIES. DMH
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBOI 250318
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICS ARE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUD
COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. MORE OPEN VALLEYS
LIKE BAKER AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE ENOUGH OF A
EASTERLY WIND TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN
LATEST FORECAST MODELS FOR WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG RIDGETOPS. FOR TONIGHT HAVE MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO
THE SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SFC WINDS SHOULD
KEEP ANY THREAT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT BAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ACROSS IDAHO WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS OVER
EASTERN OREGON. WINDS AOB 10KFT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS
OVER ID AND SOUTHWEST 35 TO 50 KTS OVER EASTERN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM BAKER
TO MCCALL ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR OUT OF NEVADA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BECOMING VERY WINDY IN
PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HARNEY COUNTY AND MALHEUR COUNTY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHADOWING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH VALLEYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW IDAHO/ WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/
     SATURDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....CR
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 242052
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
252 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS FROM BAKER
TO MCCALL ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO THE NORTH
THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DRIER AIR OUT OF NEVADA. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BECOMING VERY WINDY IN
PORTIONS OF SE OREGON BY THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR HARNEY COUNTY AND MALHEUR COUNTY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE BOISE/WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHADOWING EFFECTS WILL LIMIT THE QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AIR WITH VALLEYS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST /ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SW IDAHO/ WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER EASTERN OREGON
AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...LEAVING
EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO UNDER A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AREAS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 00Z.
EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR MVFR
STRATUS WEST OF KEUL AND IN EAST CENTRAL MALHEUR COUNTY...CLEARING
BY ABOUT 06Z. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE MOSTLY 10 KTS OR LESS...
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
15- 30 KTS IN SOUTHEAST OREGON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...EXCEPT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 5K FT MSL.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/
     SATURDAY ORZ061-063.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KPIH 241928
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
128 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER
THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT INITIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND STANLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND ON SUNDAY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER ON SUNDAY AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 6500 FEET.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS WELL...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. LOCATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A FEW RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. AFTER NEARLY A WEEK
OF SOMETIMES TOTAL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE SUITES...THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE LIKELY NEVER LOOKED MORE SIMILAR IN THE AUTUMN THAN
THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS. VERY STRONG AGREEMENT THE THE NEXT MAJOR
TROUGH ARRIVES TUE NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST STORM OF THE WEEK...BUT NOT THE COLDEST WITH SNOW LEVELS
STAYING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RISK OF SNOW IN HEAVILY
POPULATED ELEVATIONS. THE TROUGH WILL BE BRINGING LEFTOVER TROPICAL
AIRMASS FROM TROPICAL STORM ANA...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD IN SPITE
OF THE CLOUD COVER. THIS STORM WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY SERIOUS WIND EVENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THU THAT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. UNLIMITED CIGS AND VSBYS WITH LIGHT WIND AT ALL AIRDROMES.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBOI 241548
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
948 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE STEENS MOUNTAIN TO GARDEN VALLEY. A DRIER
AIR MASS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENTERED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER AND THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND CLEARING WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST OF
SE OREGON/SW IDAHO EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR. EAST AND
SOUTH OF KBOI VFR WITH AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS
AFTERNOON...WEST AND NORTH OF KBOI IMPROVING WITH RAIN ENDING AND
CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH. VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PATCHES
OF VALLEY FOG BY 06Z. EAST AND SOUTH OF KBOI CONTINUED VFR.
SURFACE WINDS...EAST TO SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS THIS MORNING AND 5-15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO 35 KTS AT 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240937
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
337 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN /SNOW ABOVE 7500/
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL AXIS THAT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ROME
OREGON TO JEROME IDAHO...WILL LIFT NORTH OF BOISE AROUND 6
AM...BAKER AND MCCALL AROUND 3 PM...AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A SMALL THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO WEST HARNEY COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH...FRIDAY...PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP COLDER AIR AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER...THIS
FORCES MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND FOR A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPLIT AFTER THURSDAY CONCERNING
THE BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE AND
MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE
GFS PLACES THE MOIST UPPER JET OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PREDICTABILITY CHARTS FAVORED THE DRIER ECMWF
SOLUTION BUT KEPT CLIMO POPS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAINS OBSCURED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
BECOMING VFR MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY 21Z ALL AREAS. WARM SECTOR
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MVFR
/IFR ABOVE 5K FT SUNDAY/ SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO SW
10-25KTS LATER TODAY AND 15-30KTS SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT SW 20 KTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 30-50KTS
SATURDAY AND SHIFTING TO WEST SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....VM




000
FXUS65 KPIH 240759
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
159 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH IS CARVING OUT AROUND
140W SIGNALING AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. MODELS SHOW THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN THE MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING TO 6500 TO 7000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PEAKS OF
THE SAWTOOTHS MAY SEE ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS TREND A BIT DRIER STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW...BUT ARE TRYING TO DRIVE ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED PERIODS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN AROUND
KSUN...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL
PUSH LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
RIDGE TOPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. STRONG SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY HIGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALL TO AROUND 6000FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 240252
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
852 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS EVENING IN RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
PICS. AS THIS TREND CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO WILL SHIFT TO THE NW. THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INLINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24H. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE WILL BE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS LIKELY DONE WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE MADE UPDATES TO
FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF IN FOR POINTS FROM BOISE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMYL. KMYL IS
EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CIG/VIS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA BECOMING SO
MOIST FROM PERSISTENT RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KBNO KBKE AND KMYL...THEN TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MID DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY
SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15KTS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WITH
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS NEAR 5000 FT MSL AND 35 TO 45 KTS NEAR 10000
FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 232034
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
234 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOISE IS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH EXTENDS TO OUR WEST...AND INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF SE OREGON /EXCLUDING SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY/ AND SW
IDAHO...INCLUDING THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY NORTH INTO THE UPPER
WEISER BASIN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOISE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...SO AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...INCLUDING MOUNTAIN HOME...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...WILL
SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BAND OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
QPF TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS...AND UP TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS...WHILE REMAINING COOL IN THE NORTH WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S. A WARMER AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. A DEEP SURFACE LOW /DOWN TO AROUND 990 MB/
NEAR THE PACNW COAST WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY AND BAKER
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS /IN
THE 70S/ ACROSS THE UPPER TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A
PROGRESSIVE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL COOL HIGHS TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO THE
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING THE
TROUGH WILL BRING EVEN COOLER AIR AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO UNDER 5000 FEET WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS. ACCORDING
TO MODELS THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FURTHER NORTH...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF OREGON. SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IS EXPECTED TO END THE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
RAISE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA WEST AND NORTH OF KJER/KTWF. EXPECT
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE 7K TO 8K FT MSL. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD SHIFT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. SURFACE
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST UP TO AROUND 30 KTS AT
10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY ON SATURDAY...THEN MORE SHOWERS
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KPIH 231931
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STREAM OF MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE SITTING AROUND 8500 FEET
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH OF FRIDAY VERY WARM AIR WILL PUMP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES MAINLY GOING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON THEM.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. SUN STORM
LINGERS INTO MON WITH MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
LIGHT SNOW...IN THE ID-MT AND ID-WY BORDER REGION. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER. THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TERRAIN INDUCED IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS FOR THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD...THE GFS IS ACTUALLY DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON WITH
THE TROUGHING BY ABOUT A DAY...DRYING OUT JUST AFTER THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH THE RISK OF OVERNIGHT SNOW EVEN AS LOW AS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THUS...PEOPLE NEED TO START ANTICIPATING WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS COMING WEEK AND GETTING IN THAT MIND-SET...SO TAKE
MEASURES NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN A LITTLE BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL PUT THE MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC MORE SQUARELY
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. KSUN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND KEEP
LOW CIGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT TO MID-LEVEL BY OPENING FRI
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO VSBY
IMPACT WITH LIGHT RAIN ONLY POSSIBLE AT KSUN. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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