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000
FXUS65 KBOI 052113
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF KREO THROUGH THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN BOISE MTNS AS OF 3 PM MDT. WE EXPECT THIS
BAND TO SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT
LINE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...GENERALLY BAKER COUNTY AND VICINITY. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO CONTINUE MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT...
LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM SE NV INTO WRN OREGON
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MON AND TUE. WE WILL SEE THIS BASIC PATTERN
EXTEND INTO WED. BY WED AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND...NARROWING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE SRN PORTION OF
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL SEE SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR APART FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY WED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS
BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE AREA OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A ROME-BOISE-JEROME LINE
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 052113
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
313 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF KREO THROUGH THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN BOISE MTNS AS OF 3 PM MDT. WE EXPECT THIS
BAND TO SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT
LINE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW...LEADING TO SOME CLEARING IN THE NW
PORTION OF THE CWA...GENERALLY BAKER COUNTY AND VICINITY. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS GOING TO CONTINUE MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT...
LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM SE NV INTO WRN OREGON
BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MON AND TUE. WE WILL SEE THIS BASIC PATTERN
EXTEND INTO WED. BY WED AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND...NARROWING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE SRN PORTION OF
THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL SEE SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR APART FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH MIDDAY WED. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS
BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE AREA OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A ROME-BOISE-JEROME LINE
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/JS
AVIATION.....JS



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000
FXUS65 KPIH 051949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A VIGOROUS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHEARING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE A
SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ROTATED NNE ACROSS SE IDAHO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEVADA/UTAH. SUSPECT
THAT MAXIMUM SOLAR INSOLATION COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER WILL BE A FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE FROM ARCO
TO MONIDA PASS AS WELL...LIKELY OWING TO THE PASSING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT I AM
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND
BUOYANCY. A BACK-DOOR FRONT SPILLS OVER THE DIVIDE LATER TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS ARE RESPONDING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION (MUCH MORE SO THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS) AND THUS HAVE BUMPED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL UP SOME
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY
FEATURE SHEARING EAST ACROSS SRN IDAHO MONDAY...INTERACTING WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT
TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY AND SUSPECT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT THAT
WE MAY HAVE TO GO A LITTLE FURTHER IN THIS REGARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AS WE CONTINUE TO AWAIT
SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE INCOMING SUB-TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAYS RUNS HAVE OFFERED UP YET ANOTHER DAYS DELAY
IN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW (NOW WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY) AND A
TRACK THAT IS INITIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...ALBEIT FOR THIS RUN. THE
RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS STILL POOR WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADDED
INSTABILITY FROM AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SHOULD GENERATED AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...TS
SHOULD END BETWEEN 06/03Z AND 06/06Z. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY AND FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KSUN UNTIL MON
MORNING. WIND WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
DEVELOPING AS STRONGLY AS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH EXPECTED TURN
TO SOUTHERLY WIND HAS OCCURRED. NO IMPACT TO VSBY OR CIG EXPECTED
WITH THE -TSRA DEVELOPMENT...JUST NORMAL WIND
SHEAR...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CELLS.
MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER....SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS ARE EXPECTED AS UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH HAS
PUSHED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURE AND ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. WARMING AND DRYING RETURN FOR WED AND THU...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THU LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRINGS THE
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED ALL THE HEAT RECORDS DURING LATE JUNE
WILL FULLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD...EVEN INTO THE NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 051949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A VIGOROUS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHEARING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE A
SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ROTATED NNE ACROSS SE IDAHO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEVADA/UTAH. SUSPECT
THAT MAXIMUM SOLAR INSOLATION COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER WILL BE A FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE FROM ARCO
TO MONIDA PASS AS WELL...LIKELY OWING TO THE PASSING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT I AM
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND
BUOYANCY. A BACK-DOOR FRONT SPILLS OVER THE DIVIDE LATER TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS ARE RESPONDING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION (MUCH MORE SO THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS) AND THUS HAVE BUMPED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL UP SOME
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY
FEATURE SHEARING EAST ACROSS SRN IDAHO MONDAY...INTERACTING WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT
TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY AND SUSPECT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT THAT
WE MAY HAVE TO GO A LITTLE FURTHER IN THIS REGARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AS WE CONTINUE TO AWAIT
SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE INCOMING SUB-TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAYS RUNS HAVE OFFERED UP YET ANOTHER DAYS DELAY
IN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW (NOW WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY) AND A
TRACK THAT IS INITIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...ALBEIT FOR THIS RUN. THE
RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS STILL POOR WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADDED
INSTABILITY FROM AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SHOULD GENERATED AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...TS
SHOULD END BETWEEN 06/03Z AND 06/06Z. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY AND FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KSUN UNTIL MON
MORNING. WIND WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
DEVELOPING AS STRONGLY AS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH EXPECTED TURN
TO SOUTHERLY WIND HAS OCCURRED. NO IMPACT TO VSBY OR CIG EXPECTED
WITH THE -TSRA DEVELOPMENT...JUST NORMAL WIND
SHEAR...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CELLS.
MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER....SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS ARE EXPECTED AS UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH HAS
PUSHED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURE AND ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. WARMING AND DRYING RETURN FOR WED AND THU...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THU LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRINGS THE
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED ALL THE HEAT RECORDS DURING LATE JUNE
WILL FULLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD...EVEN INTO THE NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 051949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A VIGOROUS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHEARING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE A
SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH ACCOMPANYING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ROTATED NNE ACROSS SE IDAHO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NRN NEVADA/UTAH. SUSPECT
THAT MAXIMUM SOLAR INSOLATION COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER WILL BE A FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LINE FROM ARCO
TO MONIDA PASS AS WELL...LIKELY OWING TO THE PASSING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN TROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT I AM
WONDERING IF THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND
BUOYANCY. A BACK-DOOR FRONT SPILLS OVER THE DIVIDE LATER TONIGHT AND
THE MODELS ARE RESPONDING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION (MUCH MORE SO THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS) AND THUS HAVE BUMPED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL UP SOME
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY
FEATURE SHEARING EAST ACROSS SRN IDAHO MONDAY...INTERACTING WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT
TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION. HAVE NUDGED THE
FORECAST UP SLIGHTLY AND SUSPECT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT THAT
WE MAY HAVE TO GO A LITTLE FURTHER IN THIS REGARD.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AS WE CONTINUE TO AWAIT
SOMETHING MORE DEFINITIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE INCOMING SUB-TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TODAYS RUNS HAVE OFFERED UP YET ANOTHER DAYS DELAY
IN THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LOW (NOW WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY) AND A
TRACK THAT IS INITIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...ALBEIT FOR THIS RUN. THE
RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS STILL POOR WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD TODAY. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADDED
INSTABILITY FROM AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SHOULD GENERATED AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...TS
SHOULD END BETWEEN 06/03Z AND 06/06Z. -SHRA WILL CONTINUE...BUT WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY AND FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY AFFECTING KSUN UNTIL MON
MORNING. WIND WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOT
DEVELOPING AS STRONGLY AS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH EXPECTED TURN
TO SOUTHERLY WIND HAS OCCURRED. NO IMPACT TO VSBY OR CIG EXPECTED
WITH THE -TSRA DEVELOPMENT...JUST NORMAL WIND
SHEAR...LIGHTNING...AND HAIL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CELLS.
MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER....SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS ARE EXPECTED AS UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH HAS
PUSHED INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURE AND ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. WARMING AND DRYING RETURN FOR WED AND THU...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THU LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRINGS THE
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PRODUCED ALL THE HEAT RECORDS DURING LATE JUNE
WILL FULLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND BE REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND...SO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STAY
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD...EVEN INTO THE NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER IS THICK THIS MORNING AS LIFT FROM A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH COMBINES WITH LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH FROM NV. LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE BEEN ON RADAR FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. WE SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOO THICK TO ALLOW US TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL END UP PUSHING SOME
CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMP
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO THIN OR BREAK UP
THERE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER IS THICK THIS MORNING AS LIFT FROM A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH COMBINES WITH LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH FROM NV. LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE BEEN ON RADAR FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. WE SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOO THICK TO ALLOW US TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL END UP PUSHING SOME
CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMP
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO THIN OR BREAK UP
THERE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 051555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER IS THICK THIS MORNING AS LIFT FROM A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH COMBINES WITH LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH FROM NV. LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE BEEN ON RADAR FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. WE SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOO THICK TO ALLOW US TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL END UP PUSHING SOME
CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMP
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO THIN OR BREAK UP
THERE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 051555
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
955 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER IS THICK THIS MORNING AS LIFT FROM A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH COMBINES WITH LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NORTH FROM NV. LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE BEEN ON RADAR FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME. WE SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOO THICK TO ALLOW US TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL END UP PUSHING SOME
CLEARING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMP
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH IF CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO THIN OR BREAK UP
THERE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050944
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
344 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WORKING UP THROUGH NV AND HAS INCREASED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO. TO THE NORTH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE PAC NW AND WILL TRACK ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER TODAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY FROM THESE FEATURES WILL RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AIDE IN
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS. IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...AREAS EAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT FROM SHOWERS/STORMS WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NV BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
NV BORDER. FOR TODAY THE CLOUDS AND COOLING ALOFT DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND 8-12 DEGREES
ALONG THE NV BORDER. LESS CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME
REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MONDAY NIGHT THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND A COOL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IMPACTING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUD DECKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
TERRAIN SURROUNDING SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...12KT OR LESS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40KT NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL...WNW 10-20KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KPIH 050906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...AS ONE STORM DROPS OUT OF CANADA EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND HELPS PULL ANOTHER WAVE TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. WE ARE ALREADY SEE THAT WITH CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. SHOWERS WILL REALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE
INCLUDED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
THERE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THEM.
WHERE IT ENDS UP MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WILL NOT BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A FRONT PUSH OVER THE DIVIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO...BUT STALL OUT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ACT AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR A WHILE INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO THAT FRONT. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DRIFTS
OVER IDAHO A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW. THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER THANKS IN
PART TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING BUT MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.
COVERAGE WILL FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON TIMING A COUPLE OF WAVES
DROPPING FROM THE NORTH CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE...AND EVENTUALLY THE
BIG LOW OUT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN
THAT SYSTEM IS KICKED OUR WAY BY THE NEXT STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS HAS IT ALREADY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF TAKES
A MORE WESTERLY PATH ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO AND MONTANA AND IS
SLOWER AS WELL. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WE JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO THE FORECAST. BESIDES THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO
HOT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT SOME TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 050906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...AS ONE STORM DROPS OUT OF CANADA EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND HELPS PULL ANOTHER WAVE TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
STATE. WE ARE ALREADY SEE THAT WITH CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE UTAH BORDER. SHOWERS WILL REALLY DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE
INCLUDED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
THERE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THEM.
WHERE IT ENDS UP MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...WE WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS
WILL NOT BE SEVERE. WE WILL SEE A FRONT PUSH OVER THE DIVIDE INTO
EASTERN IDAHO...BUT STALL OUT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD ACT AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR A WHILE INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO THAT FRONT. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DRIFTS
OVER IDAHO A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW. THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LOT COOLER THANKS IN
PART TO COOLER AIR ARRIVING BUT MAINLY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
PRETTY ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY.
COVERAGE WILL FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON TIMING A COUPLE OF WAVES
DROPPING FROM THE NORTH CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE...AND EVENTUALLY THE
BIG LOW OUT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN
THAT SYSTEM IS KICKED OUR WAY BY THE NEXT STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS HAS IT ALREADY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND FARTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF TAKES
A MORE WESTERLY PATH ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO AND MONTANA AND IS
SLOWER AS WELL. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WE JUST MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO THE FORECAST. BESIDES THE
CHANCE OF RAIN...THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO KEEP US FROM GETTING TOO
HOT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT SOME TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPS...GUSTY WINDS...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050309 AAA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE/ AT 9 PM MDT KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST/WEST ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER.  WE ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH THE SNAKE RIVER AROUND 930 PM AND
CONTINUE NORTH...POSSIBLE REACHING THE BOISE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM MDT./

...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050309 AAA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE/ AT 9 PM MDT KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST/WEST ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER.  WE ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH THE SNAKE RIVER AROUND 930 PM AND
CONTINUE NORTH...POSSIBLE REACHING THE BOISE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM MDT./

...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050309 AAA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE/ AT 9 PM MDT KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST/WEST ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER.  WE ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH THE SNAKE RIVER AROUND 930 PM AND
CONTINUE NORTH...POSSIBLE REACHING THE BOISE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM MDT./

...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050309 AAA
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
909 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE/ AT 9 PM MDT KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST/WEST ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SNAKE
RIVER.  WE ESTIMATE IT WILL REACH THE SNAKE RIVER AROUND 930 PM AND
CONTINUE NORTH...POSSIBLE REACHING THE BOISE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM MDT./

...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050250
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050250
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050250
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050250
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050249
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...OR 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.  A
SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 050249
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...OR 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.  A
SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 050249
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
849 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR THIS EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...BUT ONE MADE IT ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN OWYHEE COUNTY AROUND 7 PM MDT.  ANOTHER PRODUCED OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND BLOWING DUST AT ANDREWS/OR JUST EAST OF STEENS
MOUNTAIN.  TWIN FALLS REPORTED SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH.  NO SIGN
OF OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE TREASURE VALLEY.  CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...OR 30-60 MILES FARTHER NORTH THAN TODAY.  A
SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGS COOLER SUNDAY.  BOISE REACHED 100F TODAY FOR THE 9TH
STRAIGHT DAY OF 100F OR WARMER...TYING A RECORD FOR MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS...BUT SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KBNO-KTWF LINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST
AND SOUTH OF KBOI AND THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT LOCAL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-15 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N/132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N/
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/JDS



000
FXUS65 KBOI 042103
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N 132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
IN OREGON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND BOISE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/JS
AVIATION.....JS




000
FXUS65 KBOI 042103
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH AND RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL DO BATTLE THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER AWAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN BEST IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...BEFORE ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. BY
TUE AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY LOCATED WELL OFF THE
COAST OF CA...NEAR 32N 132W...WILL MOVE NE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N
128W. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN SE OREGON...BUT
JUST BARELY. THE REAL IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE FELT IN THE LONG
TERM. APART FROM CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW THROUGH TUE...COMPARED TO TODAY. EVEN WITH THAT...
READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE
ECMWF TIMING IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY FRIDAY. ABOVE CLIMO POPS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
BY FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES
IN OREGON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND BOISE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JS/JS
AVIATION.....JS



000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION EXTENDING NW
INTO SRN OREGON WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED OFF THE
CNTRL CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NNW OUT
OF MEXICO ACROSS NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MTNS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO OREGON AND SW IDAHO. FURTHER NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS ROTATING INTO NORTH-CNTRL CANADA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
TOWARD NRN IDAHO. THE MODELS REMAIN IN LOCK-STEP AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AS
POOLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA AND UTAH IS DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING CANADIAN
TROUGH AXIS RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EVER SO SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WITH DIURNALLY HEATING (ALBEIT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS) DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE INCOMING CALIFORNIA LOW...NOW
WAITING UNTIL THURSDAY (GFS) OR FRIDAY (ECMWF) TO LIFT IT NE ACROSS
SRN IDAHO. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO REAL IN THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS KEEPING LIGHT WITH NO INCREASE EXPECTED UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. THIS
IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN
IDAHO DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA AND AFTERNOON -
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE ON ITS SOUTHERN END...SO
FOR KIDA AND KPIH THIS WILL BE AFTER THE CURRENT VALID TIME. THUS
THE ONLY PLACE AFFECTED UNTIL BEFORE 05/18Z IS KBYI. THE HIGH
MOISTURE SO FAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO
THE KSUN AREA...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXCEPT FOR SOME
ELEVATED WIND DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
INTERESTS UNTIL AFTER 05/18Z. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECT AN UNUSUAL INCREASE IN THE
WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THIS APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO
IN AN ODD TWIST...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AREAS DOWN TOWARDS THE
IDAHO-UTAH BORDER. THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
FIRST...INCLUDING THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY NOON SUN...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THAT WILL BRING HUMIDITY UP FOR AT LEAST SUN AND MON.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR MON AND TUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE WIND AND BRING BACK THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH...NEAR THE
NV BORDER. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH
FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE VERY DRY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL FIRES STARTED ACCIDENTALLY FROM FIREWORKS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY FIREWORKS YOU DECIDE
TO USE...OR CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ENJOYING PUBLIC FIREWORK
DISPLAYS INSTEAD THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH...NEAR THE
NV BORDER. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH
FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE VERY DRY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL FIRES STARTED ACCIDENTALLY FROM FIREWORKS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY FIREWORKS YOU DECIDE
TO USE...OR CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ENJOYING PUBLIC FIREWORK
DISPLAYS INSTEAD THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH...NEAR THE
NV BORDER. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH
FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE VERY DRY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL FIRES STARTED ACCIDENTALLY FROM FIREWORKS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY FIREWORKS YOU DECIDE
TO USE...OR CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ENJOYING PUBLIC FIREWORK
DISPLAYS INSTEAD THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041556
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
956 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE FAR SOUTH...NEAR THE
NV BORDER. MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 6 PM. ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE FAR SOUTH
FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
OUT SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE VERY DRY. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL FIRES STARTED ACCIDENTALLY FROM FIREWORKS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY FIREWORKS YOU DECIDE
TO USE...OR CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ENJOYING PUBLIC FIREWORK
DISPLAYS INSTEAD THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

SUNDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY
AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JS
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041004
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
404 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041004
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
404 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 041004
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
404 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 041004
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
404 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RE-FIRE ALONG THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY. AS
DEEPER MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
FOLLOW FOR THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR OUTFLOW
WINDS ENTERING THE SNAKE VALLEY SHOULD STORMS APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES UP GROUND TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SE IDAHO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER...OTHERWISE THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S-CANADIAN BORDER. PASSAGE OF TROUGH WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL ID MTNS AND INCREASE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS WHILE KEEPING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER. WITH COOLING
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES COOL 4-8 DEGREES
FROM TODAY/S HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE
ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONES WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THURSDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY. EXPECT
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST BRINGING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEYOND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO AROUND NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY WESTERLY 5-10KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT...WNW 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 040902
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
302 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A SYSTEM DROPS IN TO OUR
NORTH AROUND THE BIGGER LOW IN CANADA. FOR TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE UTAH BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THAT AREA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME
RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...THERE IS STILL A HINT THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD FORM ESPECIALLY FROM MACKAY TO MONIDA. HOWEVER...IT IS
WEAKER THAN FARTHER SOUTH. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED THAT FORMS COULD
FOR OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND POP OUT BOUNDARIES OR ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN. IT LOOKS WEAKER UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN THE WINDS NOW
LOOK TO ACTUALLY PICK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF STORMS COULD BE A CONCERN FOR ANY FIREWORKS RELATED
ACTIVITIES LATE THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED ONCE WE GET TO THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE FROM THE
NORTH DROP INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA...IT WILL ABSORB A
WEAK SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND ALSO PULL IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. THAT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR EVERYONE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTO TOMORROW ALSO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT TODAY...WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAY SO MAKE
SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR THE HEAT. IT WILL COOL OFF TOMORROW 5-10
DEGREES THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND
STORMS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS MORE A FUNCTION OF CONFIDENCE
OR LACK OF IT AT THIS POINT. EASTERN IDAHO IS STILL SANDWICHED
BETWEEN ANY SYSTEM THAT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH OUT OF CANADA AND
THE LOW SITTING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WILL BE KEY AND RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN`T DECIDE ON HOW
MUCH THERE WILL BE IN OUR AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONE WILL BE
WET THEN TREND DRY WITH THE OTHER DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE. THE
END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...IT ACTS TO
KICK THE CALIFORNIA LOW NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN IT. THERE IS STILL
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT. WE DECIDED TO KEEP
WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE USUAL
UPTICK IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. A FEW HEAT OF THE DAY VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULDN`T AFFECT
TAF SITES.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KBOI 040230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER REACHED MAXIMUM
DEVELOPMENT AND NWD EXTENT AROUND 00Z BUT HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED.
NO OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY BUT A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY IN WRN
CANADA.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ON
SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN
HALVES OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...SPREADING NORTH
OVER IDAHO ON SUNDAY TO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI...AND
THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH THE AXIS GOING THROUGH NRN NV AND INTO
NRN CA. THIS IS INHIBITING MOISTURE FROM MOVING VERY FAR NORTH
ACROSS THE NV BORDER. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THAT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH NRN IDAHO AND INTO
MONTANA. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES AT KREO GO FROM
APPROX 0.80 THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND AN INCH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SLIGHTLY NORTH...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF STORMS RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH THAT PASSED BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY
LITTLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT APART FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHERE
A SIGNIFICANT GUST THREAT EXISTS OWING TO VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER EXTENDS SOUTH INTO IDAHO. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER CALIFORNIA - FINALLY
REACHING ERN OREGON AND SWRN IDAHO BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SOME RESPITE FROM RECENT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WARRANTS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF MID-WEEK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE SNAKE RIVER.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....MT



000
FXUS65 KBOI 040230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER REACHED MAXIMUM
DEVELOPMENT AND NWD EXTENT AROUND 00Z BUT HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED.
NO OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ANOTHER HOT DAY ON THE FOURTH OF
JULY BUT A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY IN WRN
CANADA.  NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS...MAINLY NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 06Z. WINDS ALOFT...NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ON
SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN IDAHO AND THE SOUTHERN
HALVES OF HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES IN OREGON...SPREADING NORTH
OVER IDAHO ON SUNDAY TO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI...AND
THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH THE AXIS GOING THROUGH NRN NV AND INTO
NRN CA. THIS IS INHIBITING MOISTURE FROM MOVING VERY FAR NORTH
ACROSS THE NV BORDER. WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THAT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TOMORROW...PASSING THROUGH NRN IDAHO AND INTO
MONTANA. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW VALUES AT KREO GO FROM
APPROX 0.80 THIS MORNING UP TO AROUND AN INCH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACCORDING TO NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SLIGHTLY NORTH...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF STORMS RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH THAT PASSED BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY
LITTLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT APART FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHERE
A SIGNIFICANT GUST THREAT EXISTS OWING TO VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER EXTENDS SOUTH INTO IDAHO. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST OVER CALIFORNIA - FINALLY
REACHING ERN OREGON AND SWRN IDAHO BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SOME RESPITE FROM RECENT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO...IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WARRANTS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY
OF MID-WEEK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE SNAKE RIVER.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....MT




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