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000
FXUS65 KPIH 291901 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE THROUGH UTAH WITH
THE NRN AREA OF INFLUENCE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND THUS AM
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NE TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO NRN NEVADA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (ON A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS PROGS). MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BC COAST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
INLAND. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEN IT FINALLY DOES COME ASHORE. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
FAVORED TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CENTRAL IDAHO DISPATCH AND
THEIR NEWLY CRITICAL FUELS IN ZONES 475 AND 476...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 422 475 AND 476 IN ANTICIPATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. EP
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022>025 THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR IDZ422-475-476 FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 291901 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE THROUGH UTAH WITH
THE NRN AREA OF INFLUENCE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND THUS AM
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NE TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO NRN NEVADA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (ON A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS PROGS). MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BC COAST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
INLAND. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEN IT FINALLY DOES COME ASHORE. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
FAVORED TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CENTRAL IDAHO DISPATCH AND
THEIR NEWLY CRITICAL FUELS IN ZONES 475 AND 476...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 422 475 AND 476 IN ANTICIPATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. EP
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022>025 THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR IDZ422-475-476 FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 291901 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE THROUGH UTAH WITH
THE NRN AREA OF INFLUENCE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND THUS AM
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NE TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO NRN NEVADA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (ON A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS PROGS). MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BC COAST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
INLAND. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEN IT FINALLY DOES COME ASHORE. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
FAVORED TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CENTRAL IDAHO DISPATCH AND
THEIR NEWLY CRITICAL FUELS IN ZONES 475 AND 476...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 422 475 AND 476 IN ANTICIPATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. EP
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022>025 THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR IDZ422-475-476 FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 291901 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE THROUGH UTAH WITH
THE NRN AREA OF INFLUENCE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWN POURS ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND THUS AM
CONTINUING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.
DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERNAN POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NE TONIGHT ADVANCING INTO NRN NEVADA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (ON A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY THAN PREVIOUS PROGS). MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MOIST SUB-TROPICAL
FETCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE SRN EXTENSION OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NRN BC COAST GRADUALLY MIGRATES
INLAND. BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION WHEN IT FINALLY DOES COME ASHORE. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MODELS
BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS MONSOON MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ALL SITES EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
FAVORED TODAY...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEING THE FOCUS
OF CONVECTION. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CENTRAL IDAHO DISPATCH AND
THEIR NEWLY CRITICAL FUELS IN ZONES 475 AND 476...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 422 475 AND 476 IN ANTICIPATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. EP
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022>025 THROUGH 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR IDZ422-475-476 FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 291628 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1015 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KPIH 291615
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
10315 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 291615
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
10315 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 291615
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
10315 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 291615
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
10315 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
CAPTURE THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THAT AREA FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK WAVE. OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IDZ022<025 FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
&&

$$










  [top]

000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 291512
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
912 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODELS TEND TO DECREASE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS.  WEAK
IMPULSE OFF CALIF MAY REACH HARNEY COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT MODELS DON/T
MAKE MUCH OF IT.  REST OF CURRENT FORECAST UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z UNTIL ABOUT 06Z WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
BASES NEAR 8K-10K FT AGL...OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAINLY
EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY...AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT
MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA



000
FXUS65 KPIH 291002
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY
THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE. CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.

WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

VALLE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.

VALLE


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 291002
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
402 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY
THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH AND WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS/BEAR LAKE REGION HELPING
TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MODELS SHOW A DIFFERENT PICTURE. CURRENTLY THE NAM MODEL
SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE WHERE THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE.
OVERALL...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...HEAVY STORMS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW MONSOON
MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING TOWARD A WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS CHANGED ALMOST EVERY MODEL RUN. THE OVERALL
TREND LOOKS FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW ENHANCED CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.

WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

VALLE


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS.

VALLE


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KBOI 290920
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE A RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WITH
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 290920
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
320 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME HEATING WILL
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE SNAKE VALLEY THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ALSO NEED TO WATCH A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OREGON BY EVENING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
EXPECT A SIMILAR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER S-CENTRAL
IDAHO ZONES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE.  MODELS DO NOT HAVE A RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
AFTER 18Z EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP WITH
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290241
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
841 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...NAMELY...OVER BOISE AND ELMORE COUNTIES...OWYHEE
COUNTY...AND VALLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 830 PM MDT
WERE IN SOUTHEAST BOISE COUNTY MOVING SE INTO ELMORE COUNTY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION. SOME PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE HEADED TOWARD BOISE THROUGH 9 PM MDT. GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND WE EXPECT
ALMOST ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE BY 11 PM MDT. THIS IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MOSTLY CLOUDY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AFTER 16Z WESTERLY 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KTS UP THRU 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
..A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 290241
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
841 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...NAMELY...OVER BOISE AND ELMORE COUNTIES...OWYHEE
COUNTY...AND VALLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS AS OF 830 PM MDT
WERE IN SOUTHEAST BOISE COUNTY MOVING SE INTO ELMORE COUNTY. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS MOVING ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION...HELPING TO
STRENGTHEN AND INITIATE CONVECTION. SOME PORTION OF THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL BE HEADED TOWARD BOISE THROUGH 9 PM MDT. GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND WE EXPECT
ALMOST ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL BE GONE BY 11 PM MDT. THIS IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...MOSTLY CLOUDY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER
18Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...AFTER 16Z WESTERLY 10 KTS. WINDS
ALOFT VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KTS UP THRU 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
..A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....RD
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282048
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
...A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...VARIABLE 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




000
FXUS65 KBOI 282048
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
248 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONSOON MOISTURE IS MAINLY AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR HAVE BEEN WEAK SO FAR AND THE AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY /BUT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK/ FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NAM IN PARTICULAR HAS INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX
NEAR MINUS 4 OVER ABOUT HALF OUR CWA INCLUDING SRN HARNEY AND
MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...TREASURE VALLEY...AND
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS.  OUR NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE...
WHILE OUR SERN ZONES MAY BE TOO CLOUDY AND NOT AS UNSTABLE.  DUE
TO CLOUDS...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY AND
COOLER AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARM.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORESEEN BY THE MODELS...WITH THE VERY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
...A FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY FOR ADVECTING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE HEATING...PLUS ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE
DISTURBANCES IS BELOW AVERAGE. AS USUAL THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE THE TREASURE VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS
ALOFT...VARIABLE 10-15 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT



000
FXUS65 KPIH 281954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER WRN TEXAS AND EXTENDING NW TO
THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER WITH AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM BAJA NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THUS...MOISTURE AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY
THING WE ARE WAITING ON IS A LIFTING MECHANISM. SEVERAL WAVES WERE
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST...LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
JACKPOT REGION...SHOULD HELP TO ACCENTUATE THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE POSSIBLY SPARKING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PROCESS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND WAVE WAS
NOTED LIFTING ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN UTAH INTO SW WYOMING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ATTENDING WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAIL ACROSS
SE IDAHO. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING
WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS COUPLED WITH THE
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. PLACEMENT OF ALL THESE WAVES IS ADMITTEDLY
DUBIOUS...AND AS WE WORK OUR WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY THE TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE WAVES IS EVEN MORE SUSPECT. WITH THAT SAID...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO STRIP SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFF TROPICAL STORM
HERNAN CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND LOFT IT INTO THE
MIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TARGETING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON THIS
MODEL CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MONSOON FETCH REMAINS IN PLAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER SW FLOW POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN
PLACE UNTIL THAT TIME AWAITING A LIFTING MECHANISM TO GET THE DANCE
STARTED. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH OF
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH THAT
ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WE WENT WITH VCSH VERSUS VCTS IN
THE TAFS. A SYSTEM WILL WORK NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO TOMORROW FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN...AFFECTING KPIH/KIDA/KBYI. WE DID INCLUDE -SHRA
VCTS FOR THOSE SITES AFTER 09Z. KSUN HAS VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH EXPECTED -SHRA VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION TOMORROW. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY. SO FAR TODAY...EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER DOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAVER ON PLACING POCKETS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AND IN FACT EACH RUN. MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MIGHT BE A TREND TOWARD SCATTERED OR GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST (MAINLY ZONE 413)
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...THIS WILL KEEP CRITICAL ZONES OUT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE BY TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
THERE MAY...AND WE STRESS MAY...BE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY EVEN BECOMES GREATER AFTER MIDWEEK.  THE
THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THEME IS BE READY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND BE READY FOR QUICKER CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHER COVERAGE. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 281954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CENTERED OVER WRN TEXAS AND EXTENDING NW TO
THE IDAHO/WYOMING BORDER WITH AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM BAJA NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THUS...MOISTURE AND
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY
THING WE ARE WAITING ON IS A LIFTING MECHANISM. SEVERAL WAVES WERE
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST...LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE
JACKPOT REGION...SHOULD HELP TO ACCENTUATE THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SE IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE POSSIBLY SPARKING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PROCESS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND WAVE WAS
NOTED LIFTING ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
BRUNT OF THIS WAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN UTAH INTO SW WYOMING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ATTENDING WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAIL ACROSS
SE IDAHO. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING
WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS COUPLED WITH THE
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. PLACEMENT OF ALL THESE WAVES IS ADMITTEDLY
DUBIOUS...AND AS WE WORK OUR WAY OUT INTO WEDNESDAY THE TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE WAVES IS EVEN MORE SUSPECT. WITH THAT SAID...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO STRIP SOME ENERGY AND MOISTURE OFF TROPICAL STORM
HERNAN CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND LOFT IT INTO THE
MIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TARGETING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON THIS
MODEL CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MONSOON FETCH REMAINS IN PLAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRIER SW FLOW POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN
PLACE UNTIL THAT TIME AWAITING A LIFTING MECHANISM TO GET THE DANCE
STARTED. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUED THE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH OF
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
UNTIL THE MODELS BEGIN TO COALESCE AROUND A PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO. THIS WILL KEEP SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH THAT
ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WE WENT WITH VCSH VERSUS VCTS IN
THE TAFS. A SYSTEM WILL WORK NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO TOMORROW FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SNAKE PLAIN...AFFECTING KPIH/KIDA/KBYI. WE DID INCLUDE -SHRA
VCTS FOR THOSE SITES AFTER 09Z. KSUN HAS VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH EXPECTED -SHRA VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION TOMORROW. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND EACH DAY. SO FAR TODAY...EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT THE THREAT OF THUNDER DOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO WAVER ON PLACING POCKETS OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY AND IN FACT EACH RUN. MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THERE MIGHT BE A TREND TOWARD SCATTERED OR GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST (MAINLY ZONE 413)
TUESDAY. FOR NOW...THIS WILL KEEP CRITICAL ZONES OUT OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BUT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE BY TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
THERE MAY...AND WE STRESS MAY...BE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY EVEN BECOMES GREATER AFTER MIDWEEK.  THE
THREAT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THEME IS BE READY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND BE READY FOR QUICKER CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHER COVERAGE. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 281517
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS
AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS DENSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY SO ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BEAR LAKE REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 281517
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS
AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS DENSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY SO ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BEAR LAKE REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 281517
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS
AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS DENSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY SO ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BEAR LAKE REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 281517
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS
AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS DENSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY SO ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BEAR LAKE REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 281510
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
910 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SRN-MOST ZONES TODAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IN OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY.  NEW NAM AND SREF SPLIT THE MAIN MOISTURE TUESDAY WITH ONE
PART GOING INTO OWYHEE AND TWIN FALLS COUNTIES AND THE OTHER INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON...WITH A MOISTURE MINIMUM IN SERN OREGON.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY DESPITE CLOUDS...BUT A FEW DEGS COOLER
TUESDAY UNDER THICKER CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTO OUR
CWA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
NEVADA BORDER...OVER THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS EAST OF KMYL AND IDAHO CITY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...VARIABLE AROUND 10 KTS UP
THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JA




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
358 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR AREA MAINLY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEAR LAKE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MODELS
SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY
AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT
BECAUSE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 280958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
358 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR AREA MAINLY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEAR LAKE
REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MODELS
SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY
AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT
ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT
BECAUSE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KBOI 280915
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280915
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280915
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280915
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
315 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. ELEVATED TERRAIN ACROSS SE OREGON /EXCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY/ AND SW IDAHO WILL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE NV BORDER. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS
TO HEAT UP TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE
PERSISTENT CLOUD SHIELD OVER S-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER. TONIGHT IS MILD AND DRY UNDER A
BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE ID/NV
BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
CONVECTION.  FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND WAVE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH
OUT OF NEVADA. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THIS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO SLACK OFF AND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND AREAS SOUTH 00Z TUE.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...VARIABLE 5-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING
CLOUDS INTO SRN ZONES BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET STARTED...NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE BLUES IN WRN BAKER COUNTY.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SHEAR WILL BE
MINIMAL...SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND OF
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....BW/WH




000
FXUS65 KBOI 280239
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
839 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH
OUT OF NEVADA. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THIS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO SLACK OFF AND WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND AREAS SOUTH 00Z TUE.
SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE 10KT OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET
MSL...VARIABLE 5-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING
CLOUDS INTO SRN ZONES BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET STARTED...NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE BLUES IN WRN BAKER COUNTY.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SHEAR WILL BE
MINIMAL...SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND OF
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....BW/WH



000
FXUS65 KBOI 272040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING
CLOUDS INTO SRN ZONES BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET STARTED...NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE BLUES IN WRN BAKER COUNTY.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SHEAR WILL BE
MINIMAL...SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND OF
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VARIABLE TO
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....BW/WH
AVIATION.....BW



000
FXUS65 KBOI 272040
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING
CLOUDS INTO SRN ZONES BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET STARTED...NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER...
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE BLUES IN WRN BAKER COUNTY.
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SHEAR WILL BE
MINIMAL...SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE PULSE TYPE AND OF
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VARIABLE TO
10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....BW/WH
AVIATION.....BW




000
FXUS65 KPIH 271953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SHOW HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. TO OUR SOUTH...TWO SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST COMPLEX WAVE WAS ROTATING NNW THROUGH
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN/WRN ARIZONA AND THE SECOND LARGER
FEATURE WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE MODELS LIFT
FRAGMENTS OF THE INITIAL FEATURE INTO NRN NEVADA/UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING
SOUTH OF THE BORDER COINCIDENT WITH THIS INITIAL THRUST. AT THIS
TIME...THE SE HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE BEAR LAKE REGION...MAY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE SECOND...LARGER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND THE 12Z MODEL PROGS HAVE FOLLOWED
THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENT NOTED ON YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS WITH
THE WAVE ROTATING NE INTO WRN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTING
INTO SW WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SE HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
GET CLIPPED BY THIS PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS SEVERAL STOUT FRAGMENTS
ROTATING UP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/LIKELY
MENTION OF HEAVY T-SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OF
THE FRAGMENTS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT. RESIDUAL ENERGY
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST HELPING TO
MAXIMIZE BUOYANT HEATING AND ALL COMBINING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING THE MONSOON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BREAK A LITTLE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
EITHER WAY...EMBEDDED ILL TIMED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUSTAINING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS OUR WAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 35 KTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
WE MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER...BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER (ZONE 413). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOW UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AND WHERE. THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED OR HIGHER
ACROSS EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE MAY NOW BE A SEPARATE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IN
THIS PATTERN...WE MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS DAILY AS THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHAOTIC AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS NOT PICKED UP WELL IN THE
MODELS. THIS MEANS WE MAY BE ISSUING RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH LESS
LEAD TIME THAT NORMAL...IF WE END UP HAVING TO ISSUE THEM AT ALL. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS .  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 271953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SHOW HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. TO OUR SOUTH...TWO SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST COMPLEX WAVE WAS ROTATING NNW THROUGH
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN/WRN ARIZONA AND THE SECOND LARGER
FEATURE WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE MODELS LIFT
FRAGMENTS OF THE INITIAL FEATURE INTO NRN NEVADA/UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING
SOUTH OF THE BORDER COINCIDENT WITH THIS INITIAL THRUST. AT THIS
TIME...THE SE HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE BEAR LAKE REGION...MAY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE SECOND...LARGER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND THE 12Z MODEL PROGS HAVE FOLLOWED
THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENT NOTED ON YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS WITH
THE WAVE ROTATING NE INTO WRN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTING
INTO SW WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SE HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
GET CLIPPED BY THIS PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS SEVERAL STOUT FRAGMENTS
ROTATING UP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/LIKELY
MENTION OF HEAVY T-SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OF
THE FRAGMENTS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT. RESIDUAL ENERGY
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST HELPING TO
MAXIMIZE BUOYANT HEATING AND ALL COMBINING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING THE MONSOON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BREAK A LITTLE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
EITHER WAY...EMBEDDED ILL TIMED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUSTAINING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS OUR WAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 35 KTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
WE MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER...BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER (ZONE 413). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOW UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AND WHERE. THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED OR HIGHER
ACROSS EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE MAY NOW BE A SEPARATE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IN
THIS PATTERN...WE MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS DAILY AS THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHAOTIC AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS NOT PICKED UP WELL IN THE
MODELS. THIS MEANS WE MAY BE ISSUING RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH LESS
LEAD TIME THAT NORMAL...IF WE END UP HAVING TO ISSUE THEM AT ALL. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS .  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 271953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SHOW HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. TO OUR SOUTH...TWO SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST COMPLEX WAVE WAS ROTATING NNW THROUGH
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN/WRN ARIZONA AND THE SECOND LARGER
FEATURE WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE MODELS LIFT
FRAGMENTS OF THE INITIAL FEATURE INTO NRN NEVADA/UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING
SOUTH OF THE BORDER COINCIDENT WITH THIS INITIAL THRUST. AT THIS
TIME...THE SE HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE BEAR LAKE REGION...MAY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE SECOND...LARGER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND THE 12Z MODEL PROGS HAVE FOLLOWED
THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENT NOTED ON YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS WITH
THE WAVE ROTATING NE INTO WRN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTING
INTO SW WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SE HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
GET CLIPPED BY THIS PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS SEVERAL STOUT FRAGMENTS
ROTATING UP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/LIKELY
MENTION OF HEAVY T-SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OF
THE FRAGMENTS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT. RESIDUAL ENERGY
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST HELPING TO
MAXIMIZE BUOYANT HEATING AND ALL COMBINING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING THE MONSOON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BREAK A LITTLE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
EITHER WAY...EMBEDDED ILL TIMED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUSTAINING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS OUR WAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 35 KTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
WE MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER...BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER (ZONE 413). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOW UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AND WHERE. THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED OR HIGHER
ACROSS EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE MAY NOW BE A SEPARATE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IN
THIS PATTERN...WE MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS DAILY AS THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHAOTIC AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS NOT PICKED UP WELL IN THE
MODELS. THIS MEANS WE MAY BE ISSUING RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH LESS
LEAD TIME THAT NORMAL...IF WE END UP HAVING TO ISSUE THEM AT ALL. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS .  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 271953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SHOW HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. TO OUR SOUTH...TWO SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST COMPLEX WAVE WAS ROTATING NNW THROUGH
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN/WRN ARIZONA AND THE SECOND LARGER
FEATURE WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE MODELS LIFT
FRAGMENTS OF THE INITIAL FEATURE INTO NRN NEVADA/UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING
SOUTH OF THE BORDER COINCIDENT WITH THIS INITIAL THRUST. AT THIS
TIME...THE SE HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE BEAR LAKE REGION...MAY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE SECOND...LARGER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND THE 12Z MODEL PROGS HAVE FOLLOWED
THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENT NOTED ON YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS WITH
THE WAVE ROTATING NE INTO WRN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTING
INTO SW WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SE HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
GET CLIPPED BY THIS PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS SEVERAL STOUT FRAGMENTS
ROTATING UP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/LIKELY
MENTION OF HEAVY T-SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OF
THE FRAGMENTS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT. RESIDUAL ENERGY
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST HELPING TO
MAXIMIZE BUOYANT HEATING AND ALL COMBINING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING THE MONSOON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BREAK A LITTLE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
EITHER WAY...EMBEDDED ILL TIMED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUSTAINING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS OUR WAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 35 KTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
WE MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER...BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER (ZONE 413). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOW UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AND WHERE. THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED OR HIGHER
ACROSS EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE MAY NOW BE A SEPARATE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IN
THIS PATTERN...WE MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS DAILY AS THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHAOTIC AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS NOT PICKED UP WELL IN THE
MODELS. THIS MEANS WE MAY BE ISSUING RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH LESS
LEAD TIME THAT NORMAL...IF WE END UP HAVING TO ISSUE THEM AT ALL. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS .  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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