Home > Products > State Listing > Illinois Data
Latest:
 AFDLOT |  AFDILX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLOT 121208
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
608 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
TEMPS WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR LATER TODAY ARE ALSO A
CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH WINDS CHILLS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH
10 AM CST.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THREE INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES WERE
NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...ONE
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A DES MOINES TO SPRINGFIELD
IL LINE...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE SHEARED DISTURBANCE OVER IA/MN WITH
AN AREA OF EVEN LIGHTER SNOW...AND ANOTHER DIGGING WAVE OVER THE
LAKE WINNIPEG REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LAYER
Q-CONVERGENCE FIELDS...AND PROGGED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE
275 K SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SATURATION APPEARS TO BE
BRIEF/INCOMPLETE THROUGH THE COLUMN PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
VARIOUS MODELS. ALMOST NO GUIDANCE SQUEEZES OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
FOR US THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL TRAIL A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THIS AM/MID-DAY...THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. COLD ADVECTION AND A
NORTHWEST FETCH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO PORTER COUNTY AS WELL. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT WITH LAKE
SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 25 C/KM TONIGHT AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 10 KFT... ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF PORTER COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE INDICATED 1-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THIS SETUP.

WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL...AND
AROUND ZERO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN THE CORE OF CHICAGO
AND SOUTH OF I-80. COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND -20 GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND AROUND -15 FARTHER SOUTH.
THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO TIERS OF IL COUNTIES IN COORDINATION WITH WFOS DVN AND MKX.
THE ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM CST SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN COLD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE 10-15 ABOVE RANGE AND WIND CHILLS
NEAR ZERO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE AND HEIGHT FALLS
PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FEATURING A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS ON THE 285 K SURFACE
DEPICT GOOD UPGLIDE AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5
MB...WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3 G/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BLENDED
GUIDANCE QPF OF NEARLY 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL
COMBINED WITH FORECAST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18:1 RANGE
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IL...AND 2-4 INCHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BLUSTERY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED IT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN EASTERN TROUGH AND
WESTERN RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
DEPICTED IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING MOST LIKELY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THE WESTERN RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL...AND ABOVE
FREEZING...BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS
IN SNOW THIS MORNING...AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.

RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING LIGHT SNOW STILL DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. THE
TERMINALS WILL SEE SNOW HERE SHORTLY WITH A WINDOW OF SLIGHTLY
MORE INTENSE SNOW STILL POSSIBLE. VIS OF 3-5SM STILL CURRENTLY
PRESENT IN THIS SNOW AND THINK THAT STILL SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR THEM TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO MIDDAY. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME
VFR LATER TODAY BEFORE SCATTERING EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT WEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WHILE INCREASING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A large area of mostly MVFR cigs was located west and north of our
area early this morning. As low pressure to our southwest moves
off to our east later this morning, it appears the area of MVFR
cigs will push into central Illinois and hold through the mid
and late afternoon hours. The cigs will range from 1000-2000 feet
with an occasional drop to below 1000 feet this morning, especially
when the lower cigs push into the forecast area. Improving
conditions are expected between 20-23z from northwest to southeast
as a cold front sweeps the lower cloud deck away with VFR conditions
expected tonight.

Surface winds will become northwest and increase to between 15 to
20 kts by late morning and through the afternoon with a few gusts
around 27 kts during the afternoon as the much colder air spills
into the forecast area. Northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts are
expected early tonight but will begin to diminish after midnight
to around 10 kts.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A large area of mostly MVFR cigs was located west and north of our
area early this morning. As low pressure to our southwest moves
off to our east later this morning, it appears the area of MVFR
cigs will push into central Illinois and hold through the mid
and late afternoon hours. The cigs will range from 1000-2000 feet
with an occasional drop to below 1000 feet this morning, especially
when the lower cigs push into the forecast area. Improving
conditions are expected between 20-23z from northwest to southeast
as a cold front sweeps the lower cloud deck away with VFR conditions
expected tonight.

Surface winds will become northwest and increase to between 15 to
20 kts by late morning and through the afternoon with a few gusts
around 27 kts during the afternoon as the much colder air spills
into the forecast area. Northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts are
expected early tonight but will begin to diminish after midnight
to around 10 kts.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith



000
FXUS63 KILX 121100
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A large area of mostly MVFR cigs was located west and north of our
area early this morning. As low pressure to our southwest moves
off to our east later this morning, it appears the area of MVFR
cigs will push into central Illinois and hold through the mid
and late afternoon hours. The cigs will range from 1000-2000 feet
with an occasional drop to below 1000 feet this morning, especially
when the lower cigs push into the forecast area. Improving
conditions are expected between 20-23z from northwest to southeast
as a cold front sweeps the lower cloud deck away with VFR conditions
expected tonight.

Surface winds will become northwest and increase to between 15 to
20 kts by late morning and through the afternoon with a few gusts
around 27 kts during the afternoon as the much colder air spills
into the forecast area. Northwest winds of 12 to 17 kts are
expected early tonight but will begin to diminish after midnight
to around 10 kts.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120944
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
344 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
TEMPS WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR LATER TODAY ARE ALSO A
CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH WINDS CHILLS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH
10 AM CST.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THREE INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES WERE
NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...ONE
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A DES MOINES TO SPRINGFIELD
IL LINE...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE SHEARED DISTURBANCE OVER IA/MN WITH
AN AREA OF EVEN LIGHTER SNOW...AND ANOTHER DIGGING WAVE OVER THE
LAKE WINNIPEG REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LAYER
Q-CONVERGENCE FIELDS...AND PROGGED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE
275 K SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SATURATION APPEARS TO BE
BRIEF/INCOMPLETE THROUGH THE COLUMN PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
VARIOUS MODELS. ALMOST NO GUIDANCE SQUEEZES OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
FOR US THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL TRAIL A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THIS AM/MID-DAY...THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. COLD ADVECTION AND A
NORTHWEST FETCH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO PORTER COUNTY AS WELL. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT WITH LAKE
SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 25 C/KM TONIGHT AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 10 KFT... ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF PORTER COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE INDICATED 1-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THIS SETUP.

WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL...AND
AROUND ZERO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN THE CORE OF CHICAGO
AND SOUTH OF I-80. COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND -20 GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND AROUND -15 FARTHER SOUTH.
THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO TIERS OF IL COUNTIES IN COORDINATION WITH WFOS DVN AND MKX.
THE ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM CST SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN COLD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE 10-15 ABOVE RANGE AND WIND CHILLS
NEAR ZERO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE AND HEIGHT FALLS
PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FEATURING A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS ON THE 285 K SURFACE
DEPICT GOOD UPGLIDE AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5
MB...WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3 G/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BLENDED
GUIDANCE QPF OF NEARLY 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL
COMBINED WITH FORECAST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18:1 RANGE
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IL...AND 2-4 INCHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BLUSTERY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED IT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN EASTERN TROUGH AND
WESTERN RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
DEPICTED IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING MOST LIKELY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THE WESTERN RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL...AND ABOVE
FREEZING...BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120944
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
344 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
343 AM CST

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST IS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
TEMPS WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR LATER TODAY ARE ALSO A
CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH WINDS CHILLS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT THROUGH
10 AM CST.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THREE INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES WERE
NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...ONE
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A DES MOINES TO SPRINGFIELD
IL LINE...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE SHEARED DISTURBANCE OVER IA/MN WITH
AN AREA OF EVEN LIGHTER SNOW...AND ANOTHER DIGGING WAVE OVER THE
LAKE WINNIPEG REGION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
BOTH TO THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER LAYER
Q-CONVERGENCE FIELDS...AND PROGGED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AROUND THE
275 K SURFACE. IN ADDITION...SATURATION APPEARS TO BE
BRIEF/INCOMPLETE THROUGH THE COLUMN PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
VARIOUS MODELS. ALMOST NO GUIDANCE SQUEEZES OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP
FOR US THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL TRAIL A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE THIS AM/MID-DAY...THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FALLING TEMPS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. COLD ADVECTION AND A
NORTHWEST FETCH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO PORTER COUNTY AS WELL. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT WITH LAKE
SURFACE TO 850 MB DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 25 C/KM TONIGHT AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 10 KFT... ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS GENERALLY EAST OF PORTER COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE INDICATED 1-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR LATE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IN THIS SETUP.

WITH THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IL...AND
AROUND ZERO OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE IN THE CORE OF CHICAGO
AND SOUTH OF I-80. COMBINED WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND -20 GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-88 CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND AROUND -15 FARTHER SOUTH.
THUS HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO TIERS OF IL COUNTIES IN COORDINATION WITH WFOS DVN AND MKX.
THE ADVISORY WILL RUN FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM CST SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN COLD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING INTO THE 10-15 ABOVE RANGE AND WIND CHILLS
NEAR ZERO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
343 AM CST

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY WITH A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE AND HEIGHT FALLS
PROVIDING FAIRLY STRONG ASCENT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FEATURING A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS ON THE 285 K SURFACE
DEPICT GOOD UPGLIDE AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5
MB...WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 3 G/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A BLENDED
GUIDANCE QPF OF NEARLY 0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL
COMBINED WITH FORECAST SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15-18:1 RANGE
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
IL...AND 2-4 INCHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. BLUSTERY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-25 MPH MAY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED IT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.

THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN EASTERN TROUGH AND
WESTERN RIDGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
DEPICTED IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING MOST LIKELY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW. EVENTUALLY...THE WESTERN RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL...AND ABOVE
FREEZING...BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120918
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120918
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120918
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120918
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120918
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED FOR THE 09Z TAFS...
GROWING MORE CONFIDENT FOR BETTER PREVAILING SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AS RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING AN AREA
OF STEADY SNOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. TIME OF
ARRIVAL AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING SNOW STARTING AROUND
THE TERMINALS IN THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE 9Z TAF UPDATE. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THERE IS SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND 2SM...BUT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH HOW LOW THE VIS WILL
GO THIS MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
LIKELY ADJUST WITH 12Z TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK MAX WOULD BE A TRACE TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014...MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.

IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...3
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 120917
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Snow has not begun at any of the TAF sites yet, but with mosaic
radar loop showing most of the snow still west of the area and
nothing being reported under the higher returns on radar, thinking
is that flurries will occur at most of the TAF sites overnight,
with SPI only site getting light snow overnight for a few hours
from 07z to 09z. Vis at SPI during the light snow will be 3sm
while remainder of the time, think vis will be VFR. Do not see
cigs dropping to MVFR levels until after the snow has ended over
the area, due to very dry lower layers...seen on 00z UA sounding
and any snow currently falling is just moistening up the lower
layer. MVFR cigs at 2.5kft will occur from early morning til
afternoon in the west and later afternoon in the east. Then clouds
will scatter out and last til evening. Winds will be light out of
the southwest to start, but then become westerly and then
northwesterly for the afternoon and evening. Light wind speeds til
after winds shift to west and northwest. Then speeds increase and
become gusty with gusts of 23-38kts possible.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120817
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
217 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
215 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO BRING UP THE START TIME OF THE GALE
AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS...WITH GALES EXPECTED TO START ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEARSHORE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST JUST TO THE WEST EXPECT SPEEDS TO REALLY
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE WESTERLY WINDS TO
30KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THIS LOCATION OVERNIGHT AND DO EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MORE SUSTAINED GALES WONT ARRIVE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE
SOUTH AND NEARSHORE WATERS SEE GALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR GALES TO POSSIBLY PERSIST A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE NORTH HALF. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 120534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Snow has not begun at any of the TAF sites yet, but with mosaic
radar loop showing most of the snow still west of the area and
nothing being reported under the higher returns on radar, thinking
is that flurries will occur at most of the TAF sites overnight,
with SPI only site getting light snow overnight for a few hours
from 07z to 09z. Vis at SPI during the light snow will be 3sm
while remainder of the time, think vis will be VFR. Do not see
cigs dropping to MVFR levels until after the snow has ended over
the area, due to very dry lower layers...seen on 00z UA sounding
and any snow currently falling is just moistening up the lower
layer. MVFR cigs at 2.5kft will occur from early morning til
afternoon in the west and later afternoon in the east. Then clouds
will scatter out and last til evening. Winds will be light out of
the southwest to start, but then become westerly and then
northwesterly for the afternoon and evening. Light wind speeds til
after winds shift to west and northwest. Then speeds increase and
become gusty with gusts of 23-38kts possible.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 120534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Snow has not begun at any of the TAF sites yet, but with mosaic
radar loop showing most of the snow still west of the area and
nothing being reported under the higher returns on radar, thinking
is that flurries will occur at most of the TAF sites overnight,
with SPI only site getting light snow overnight for a few hours
from 07z to 09z. Vis at SPI during the light snow will be 3sm
while remainder of the time, think vis will be VFR. Do not see
cigs dropping to MVFR levels until after the snow has ended over
the area, due to very dry lower layers...seen on 00z UA sounding
and any snow currently falling is just moistening up the lower
layer. MVFR cigs at 2.5kft will occur from early morning til
afternoon in the west and later afternoon in the east. Then clouds
will scatter out and last til evening. Winds will be light out of
the southwest to start, but then become westerly and then
northwesterly for the afternoon and evening. Light wind speeds til
after winds shift to west and northwest. Then speeds increase and
become gusty with gusts of 23-38kts possible.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



000
FXUS63 KILX 120534
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Snow has not begun at any of the TAF sites yet, but with mosaic
radar loop showing most of the snow still west of the area and
nothing being reported under the higher returns on radar, thinking
is that flurries will occur at most of the TAF sites overnight,
with SPI only site getting light snow overnight for a few hours
from 07z to 09z. Vis at SPI during the light snow will be 3sm
while remainder of the time, think vis will be VFR. Do not see
cigs dropping to MVFR levels until after the snow has ended over
the area, due to very dry lower layers...seen on 00z UA sounding
and any snow currently falling is just moistening up the lower
layer. MVFR cigs at 2.5kft will occur from early morning til
afternoon in the west and later afternoon in the east. Then clouds
will scatter out and last til evening. Winds will be light out of
the southwest to start, but then become westerly and then
northwesterly for the afternoon and evening. Light wind speeds til
after winds shift to west and northwest. Then speeds increase and
become gusty with gusts of 23-38kts possible.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120342
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 120342
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE
PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 120308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central IA. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far north/east it will occur in central IL. Will have
lightest snow along the PIA/BMI/CMI line with only going down to
3sm. DEC will have going down to 2sm and SPI down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with SPI lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at SPI will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 120308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central IA. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far north/east it will occur in central IL. Will have
lightest snow along the PIA/BMI/CMI line with only going down to
3sm. DEC will have going down to 2sm and SPI down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with SPI lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at SPI will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 120308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central IA. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far north/east it will occur in central IL. Will have
lightest snow along the PIA/BMI/CMI line with only going down to
3sm. DEC will have going down to 2sm and SPI down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with SPI lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at SPI will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 120308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Light snow is just now beginning to move into western parts of
central Illinois, even though radar indicates it should already
be occurring. Observations show very few lower clouds so if any
light snow is occurring out there, it is flurries and the
observational sites are not picking it up yet. Still thinking that
some light snow will occur in the southwestern parts of the CWA
overnight, so believe current forecast still looks good for the
remainder of the night. May make some tweaks to overnight low
temps in the southeast, but remainder of the area, current
forecast looks fine. Update out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central IA. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far north/east it will occur in central IL. Will have
lightest snow along the PIA/BMI/CMI line with only going down to
3sm. DEC will have going down to 2sm and SPI down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with SPI lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at SPI will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KLOT 112354
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
554 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LIKELY FOR THE TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE PREVAILING -SN IN UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW COULD BE INTERMITTENT. THE MAIN IMPACT
SHOULD BE MORE WITH CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH
AND A SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRISK NWLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WELL
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 112351
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

All sites will begin with mid and high clouds this evening, but
snow, along with lower cigs and vis will move into the area in a
few hours. Current radar shows most of the snow in central and
south central IA. Models differ on where most of snow will fall
and how far north/east it will occur in central IL. Will have
lightest snow along the PIA/BMI/CMI line with only going down to
3sm. DEC will have going down to 2sm and SPI down to 1.5sm. 5-8
hrs with SPI lasting longest since it will be closest to the
heavier band of snow. Cigs will drop to lower MVFR during the snow
and vis at SPI will be just above 1sm. Once snow stops, lower cigs
will remain but then scatter out during the afternoon. Winds will
be light most of the period, but then increase once snow ends and
be gusty. Wind directions will be southerly, then becoming
southwest, then west- northwesterly.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 112124
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A fast moving clipper will produce light snow starting this evening
across western Illinois, with most of the focused lift overnight
primarily remaining across our southwestern counties. The general
trend in the 12z models has been to focus the better chances of
measurable snowfall over our southwestern and southern counties.
Have increased PoPs to likely in a narrow corridor southwest of a
line from Jacksonville to Effingham, progressing from SW to SE with
time overnight. The HRRR is the farthest southwest with the latest
updated path of forcing for precip, with the NAM80, Canadian GEM,
and ECMWF still extending at least some snow accumulation across all
of our CWA except the far NE counties NE of CMI. The NAM12 is
similar to the HRRR in limiting snow to the SW half of our CWA. Have
reduced the PoPs in our N and NE counties, north of I-74, to slight
chance. Chance PoPs were limited to generally south of a line from
Galesburg to Lincoln to Paris. Snow amounts from Jacksonville to
Effingham could reach between a half inch and one inch, with a
dusting to a half inch as far north as Rushville to Lincoln to
Decatur. South to southwest winds should remain less than 10 mph
during the snowfall, so drifting should not be a big problem
overnight.

Low temps tonight will generally settle out in the mid-teens, as
cloud cover limits the diurnal swing to only around a 10 degree drop-
off.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Friday may start out with a few lingering snow showers south of
I-70, but little additional accumulation is expected after
sunrise. The bigger story will be the arrival of very cold air on
increasing northwest winds Friday afternoon, as strong pressure
rises develop ahead of the surface high center. The tight pressure
gradient will produce wind gusts over 30 mph at times, which could
cause minor drifting of the snowfall from tonight, so slippery
travel could develop from that Friday afternoon and evening.

Wind chills late Friday night will drop very close to advisory
levels of -15F north of Peoria, with wind chills below zero in all
of our forecast area. Actual air temps will be range from zero to 8
above zero, but NW winds will remain strong enough to push wind
chills well below zero.

The next main concern will be the system for Sunday into Monday.
Model differences remain with the 12z model updates. The Canadian
GEM has started showing the splitting of energy as the trough
reaches Illinois, similar to what the ECMWF was showing yesterday.
The ECMWF has changed and now maintains the trough energy across
Illinois Sunday evening, with total QPF amounts that support snow
amounts of 1 to 2". The Canadian GEM QPF amounts support around 1
inch west of I-55, with little to no snow accum east of I-55. The
GFS remains the only model that develops a distinct surface
low/circulation that tracks across northern IL Sunday evening, with
total QPF amounts that support snowfall of 4" to 7" in our northern
counties, and 3-4" in the south. The 12z NAM now includes forecast
info through 6 pm Sunday, and is showing plenty of snow as well,
despite no surface low moving across IL. The NAM has 3-5" across our
counties for just the first 12 hours of the event through 6 pm
Sunday. We have increased PoPs into the likely category for Sunday
nearly everywhere, and likely PoPs east of I-57 Sunday night.

Our compromise forecast for QPF came out to 0.23-0.30", correlating
to snowfall amounts of 2-4", with the higher totals from Peoria and
north. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how much
moisture will fall, so updates to QPF and resultant snow accums are
likely with subsequent model runs.

The accumulating snows should primarily be done by Monday morning,
but lingering light snow or flurries could continue into afternoon.
If precip does linger into the afternoon, the snow may mix
with or change to rain.

All of the extended models show a low deepening south of Illinois on
Monday, and progressing up into the Appalachian mountains Monday
night, with precip mainly southeast of our area. However, the
blended initialization kept slight chance PoPs in the eastern half
of Illinois Monday night through Tuesday night, mainly due to that
strong system.

A warming trend is indicated for next week, as upper level ridging
gradually pushes east into Illinois. We should see mid-level warming
increase enough to support high temps climbing into the upper 30s to
low 40s Tuesday and Wed, with sunshine and mid 40s to around 50 for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

1030 MB Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging into eastern IA and nw IL will slide se into eastern IL
and central/southern IN by 00Z/6 pm and into WV by 06Z/midnight
tonight. Nearby high pressure will continue light winds through
this evening across the central TAF sites. A northern stream short
wave/Alberta clipper over western SD will track se across MO
during this evening and into the TN valley by 12Z/6 am Friday.
Models have trended further sw track with this clipper so best
chances of light snow tonight have shifted sw into sw IL from SPI
sw. Have light snow/flurries with vsbys 4-6 miles and MVFR
ceilings spreading se along I-74 corridor 02-06Z. Steadier light
snow and vsbys down to 2-3 miles at DEC and especially SPI from
03Z-05Z along with MVFR ceilings. Light snow chances should end
late tonight from nw-se from 10-13Z as MVFR clouds linger. Light
winds this evening to become WNW by dawn Friday and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/9 am Fri.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KLOT 112057
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
257 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8KT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADILY LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHT...WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT BY 9Z FRI AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT AGL BY 11-12Z FRI. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD STRETCH FURTHER
NORTH AND ARRIVE NEAR RFD AT 8-9Z AND EVENTUALLY AT ORD/MDW BY 11Z
FRI. WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
BY MID-MORNING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 12-15KT AND GUSTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 112057
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
257 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT...
WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...GUIDANCE APPEARS TO TAKE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTHERN AREAS.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA AND LIKELY TO BE JUST A DUSTING. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY DIP THIS EVENING BUT THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN THE
TEENS OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTING INTO THE
30-35 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY MORNING AND
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE COLDEST AIR SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER/MID TEENS BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS CURRENTLY WINDING DOWN AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. BUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AND
BEGIN AFFECTING PORTER COUNTY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME...AT LEAST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BUT
THESE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

257 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ARRIVAL FROM BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF IS JUST
A BIT SOONER. STILL THINK THAT MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF ARRIVAL TIME...DIDN/T GET TOO FANCY
WITH TIMING ON SUNDAY...JUST BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY. THE GROWTH
ZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEW
INCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THE
NAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITH
AN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS
STILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THEN LEVEL OFF
AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY AND
SHOULD THEN REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS UNSETTLED
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN TIMING OR HIGHER POPS...SO FOR
NOW JUST LOW CHANCE POPS. ALSO APPEARS...IF THIS MATERIALIZES...
ANOTHER LOPE OF COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK
WITH THE EXPECTED WARM UP DELAYED TO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8KT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADILY LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHT...WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT BY 9Z FRI AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT AGL BY 11-12Z FRI. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD STRETCH FURTHER
NORTH AND ARRIVE NEAR RFD AT 8-9Z AND EVENTUALLY AT ORD/MDW BY 11Z
FRI. WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
BY MID-MORNING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 12-15KT AND GUSTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 112008
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...1156 AM CST

NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
ADJACENT AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER LAKE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE MID 20S
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...HOWEVER A COUPLE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FURTHER NORTH BUT QUICKLY
ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI. WITH SFC RIDGING HOLDING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS COULD HELP TO STEER THE PATH FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST
ALLOW FLURRIES OR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW FRI MORNING. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL PROVIDE A GREATER LOOK AT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT WAVE ALONG WITH THE PATH.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY
PROMPTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8KT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADILY LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHT...WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT BY 9Z FRI AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT AGL BY 11-12Z FRI. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD STRETCH FURTHER
NORTH AND ARRIVE NEAR RFD AT 8-9Z AND EVENTUALLY AT ORD/MDW BY 11Z
FRI. WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
BY MID-MORNING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 12-15KT AND GUSTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
208 PM CST

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH
FROM CANADA EARLY FRIDAY AND REACH LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT HAZARDS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15KT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE HURON AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATING WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MUCH A POCKET OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR
TO SLIDE ACROS THE LAKE ACCOMPANIED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GALES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 35KT BUT
POSSIBLY A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 40KT GALES. IN ADDITION TO THE
GALES...THE VERY COLD AIR IS POISED TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE FREEZING
SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO BE
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT ALSO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTHWEST IN. WITH ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS...FEEL THAT THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACT MAY NOT BE AS
SUBSTANTIAL. SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
CONFINED TO THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GALES/FREEZING
SPRAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. GALES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK SAT
AS WILL THE FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTS...HOWEVER THE WAVES MAY LINGER
LONGER FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD/INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AND LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SAT EVENING.

FLOW QUICKLY TURNS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BACK
TO LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER...THIS WILL END UP INCREASING THE WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY PERIOD.

BEACHLER

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779...6
     PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 111803
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
1156 AM CST

NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
ADJACENT AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER LAKE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE MID 20S
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...HOWEVER A COUPLE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FURTHER NORTH BUT QUICKLY
ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI. WITH SFC RIDGING HOLDING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS COULD HELP TO STEER THE PATH FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST
ALLOW FLURRIES OR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW FRI MORNING. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL PROVIDE A GREATER LOOK AT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT WAVE ALONG WITH THE PATH.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY
PROMPTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8KT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADILY LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHT...WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT BY 9Z FRI AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT AGL BY 11-12Z FRI. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD STRETCH FURTHER
NORTH AND ARRIVE NEAR RFD AT 8-9Z AND EVENTUALLY AT ORD/MDW BY 11Z
FRI. WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
BY MID-MORNING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 12-15KT AND GUSTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



000
FXUS63 KLOT 111803
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
1156 AM CST

NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
ADJACENT AND DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER LAKE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE MID 20S
BEFORE SUNSET.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK...HOWEVER A COUPLE HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FURTHER NORTH BUT QUICKLY
ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI. WITH SFC RIDGING HOLDING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THIS COULD HELP TO STEER THE PATH FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST
ALLOW FLURRIES OR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW FRI MORNING. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL PROVIDE A GREATER LOOK AT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT WAVE ALONG WITH THE PATH.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY
PROMPTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES AND VFR CONDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8KT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT.

APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADILY LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHT...WITH BASES AROUND 5KFT BY 9Z FRI AND COULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 3KFT AGL BY 11-12Z FRI. SOME OF THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD STRETCH FURTHER
NORTH AND ARRIVE NEAR RFD AT 8-9Z AND EVENTUALLY AT ORD/MDW BY 11Z
FRI. WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY TURNING WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
BY MID-MORNING FRI...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 12-15KT AND GUSTS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20KT BY LATE FRI MORNING.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 111756
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Forecast generally looks on track today and only update will be to
increase the clouds a bit quicker during the mid/late afternoon
hours. Ample sunshine this morning with skies becoming mostly
cloudy by late afternoon/early evening with clouds arriving
soonest in western/sw CWA ahead of next clipper system. The
northern stream short wave/clipper is near the MT/SD border and
to race se across ne Nebraska and near sw IA/nw MO by sunset.
1030 mb Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging over eastern IA/nw IL and northern MO will slide se across
central IL this afternoon, reaching central/southern IN and
eastern IL by 00Z/6 pm. This will keep winds light today generally
under 10 mph. Cold highs in the low to mid 20s with coldest
readings from I-74 ne.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

1030 MB Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging into eastern IA and nw IL will slide se into eastern IL
and central/southern IN by 00Z/6 pm and into WV by 06Z/midnight
tonight. Nearby high pressure will continue light winds through
this evening across the central TAF sites. A northern stream short
wave/Alberta clipper over western SD will track se across MO
during this evening and into the TN valley by 12Z/6 am Friday.
Models have trended further sw track with this clipper so best
chances of light snow tonight have shifted sw into sw IL from SPI
sw. Have light snow/flurries with vsbys 4-6 miles and MVFR
ceilings spreading se along I-74 corridor 02-06Z. Steadier light
snow and vsbys down to 2-3 miles at DEC and especially SPI from
03Z-05Z along with MVFR ceilings. Light snow chances should end
late tonight from nw-se from 10-13Z as MVFR clouds linger. Light
winds this evening to become WNW by dawn Friday and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/9 am Fri.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 111756
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Forecast generally looks on track today and only update will be to
increase the clouds a bit quicker during the mid/late afternoon
hours. Ample sunshine this morning with skies becoming mostly
cloudy by late afternoon/early evening with clouds arriving
soonest in western/sw CWA ahead of next clipper system. The
northern stream short wave/clipper is near the MT/SD border and
to race se across ne Nebraska and near sw IA/nw MO by sunset.
1030 mb Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging over eastern IA/nw IL and northern MO will slide se across
central IL this afternoon, reaching central/southern IN and
eastern IL by 00Z/6 pm. This will keep winds light today generally
under 10 mph. Cold highs in the low to mid 20s with coldest
readings from I-74 ne.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

1030 MB Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging into eastern IA and nw IL will slide se into eastern IL
and central/southern IN by 00Z/6 pm and into WV by 06Z/midnight
tonight. Nearby high pressure will continue light winds through
this evening across the central TAF sites. A northern stream short
wave/Alberta clipper over western SD will track se across MO
during this evening and into the TN valley by 12Z/6 am Friday.
Models have trended further sw track with this clipper so best
chances of light snow tonight have shifted sw into sw IL from SPI
sw. Have light snow/flurries with vsbys 4-6 miles and MVFR
ceilings spreading se along I-74 corridor 02-06Z. Steadier light
snow and vsbys down to 2-3 miles at DEC and especially SPI from
03Z-05Z along with MVFR ceilings. Light snow chances should end
late tonight from nw-se from 10-13Z as MVFR clouds linger. Light
winds this evening to become WNW by dawn Friday and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/9 am Fri.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07



000
FXUS63 KILX 111756
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Forecast generally looks on track today and only update will be to
increase the clouds a bit quicker during the mid/late afternoon
hours. Ample sunshine this morning with skies becoming mostly
cloudy by late afternoon/early evening with clouds arriving
soonest in western/sw CWA ahead of next clipper system. The
northern stream short wave/clipper is near the MT/SD border and
to race se across ne Nebraska and near sw IA/nw MO by sunset.
1030 mb Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging over eastern IA/nw IL and northern MO will slide se across
central IL this afternoon, reaching central/southern IN and
eastern IL by 00Z/6 pm. This will keep winds light today generally
under 10 mph. Cold highs in the low to mid 20s with coldest
readings from I-74 ne.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

1030 MB Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging into eastern IA and nw IL will slide se into eastern IL
and central/southern IN by 00Z/6 pm and into WV by 06Z/midnight
tonight. Nearby high pressure will continue light winds through
this evening across the central TAF sites. A northern stream short
wave/Alberta clipper over western SD will track se across MO
during this evening and into the TN valley by 12Z/6 am Friday.
Models have trended further sw track with this clipper so best
chances of light snow tonight have shifted sw into sw IL from SPI
sw. Have light snow/flurries with vsbys 4-6 miles and MVFR
ceilings spreading se along I-74 corridor 02-06Z. Steadier light
snow and vsbys down to 2-3 miles at DEC and especially SPI from
03Z-05Z along with MVFR ceilings. Light snow chances should end
late tonight from nw-se from 10-13Z as MVFR clouds linger. Light
winds this evening to become WNW by dawn Friday and increase to
10-15 kts with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/9 am Fri.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07




000
FXUS63 KILX 111645
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Forecast generally looks on track today and only update will be to
increase the clouds a bit quicker during the mid/late afternoon
hours. Ample sunshine this morning with skies becoming mostly
cloudy by late afternoon/early evening with clouds arriving
soonest in western/sw CWA ahead of next clipper system. The
northern stream short wave/clipper is near the MT/SD border and
to race se across ne Nebraska and near sw IA/nw MO by sunset.
1030 mb Canadian high pressure over the upper MS river valley and
ridging over eastern IA/nw IL and northern MO will slide se across
central IL this afternoon, reaching central/southern IN and
eastern IL by 00Z/6 pm. This will keep winds light today generally
under 10 mph. Cold highs in the low to mid 20s with coldest
readings from I-74 ne.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

High pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies to the
TAF sites through this afternoon. This evening, an approaching
Alberta clipper will spread mid level clouds into the region.
Light snow will begin near the IL River around 04Z and spread east
through the late evening. Lift will be maximized in the 06-12Z
period, when MVFR ceilings/vis are expected. Light/variable winds
will eventually turn to the S/SW prior to daybreak.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KILX 111128
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

High pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies to the
TAF sites through this afternoon. This evening, an approaching
Alberta clipper will spread mid level clouds into the region.
Light snow will begin near the IL River around 04Z and spread east
through the late evening. Lift will be maximized in the 06-12Z
period, when MVFR ceilings/vis are expected. Light/variable winds
will eventually turn to the S/SW prior to daybreak.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KILX 111128
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

High pressure will bring light winds and mostly clear skies to the
TAF sites through this afternoon. This evening, an approaching
Alberta clipper will spread mid level clouds into the region.
Light snow will begin near the IL River around 04Z and spread east
through the late evening. Lift will be maximized in the 06-12Z
period, when MVFR ceilings/vis are expected. Light/variable winds
will eventually turn to the S/SW prior to daybreak.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...25




000
FXUS63 KLOT 111116 CCA
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
516 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY
PROMPTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER QUIET VFR
DAY. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PASSES OVER SOUTHERN IL. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES...BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OPERATIONS. DRY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 111110
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER QUIET VFR
DAY. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PASSES OVER SOUTHERN IL. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES...BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OPERATIONS. DRY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 111110
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER QUIET VFR
DAY. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PASSES OVER SOUTHERN IL. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES...BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OPERATIONS. DRY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 111110
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
510 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER QUIET VFR
DAY. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PASSES OVER SOUTHERN IL. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES...BUT
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT OPERATIONS. DRY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY.

JEE

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



000
FXUS63 KILX 110944
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Surface high pressure will drift over central IL today as a
fast moving  clipper system currently over the international border
in MT approaches. Deep long wave trough over the eastern U.S. will
continue today...promoting strong northwest flow which will rapidly
move the MT system toward central IL. Through late afternoon...main
impact of the system will be increasing high and mid clouds but dry
conditions after mostly sunny skies to start the day. The surface
high pressure will bring weak pressure gradients causing north winds
to become progressively lighter through the day...in fact light and
variable underneath the high center by late afternoon as it becomes
centered roughly over Springfield. Cold temperatures to remain
entrenched over the area with highs mainly low 20s but ranging up to
the mid 20s from around Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A major change in the shorter term on track for tonight. Trouble
expected with the timing of the shortwaves moving through the nwrly
flow has materialized. Models have sped up the approach of the quick
clipper-like system out of the NW and into the long wave trof over
the eastern half of the country. Starting the snow in the west
before midnight, spreading across Central Illinois before sunrise
tomorrow morning. Snowfall totals could range from a half an inch to
an inch. Higher snowfall totals slated to be in the southern half of
the state...but this is a quick moving system and not expecting much
overall either way.  Concern will be for the morning commute,
particularly east of the I-57 corridor, where the snow may still be
falling. Other than that, forecast only some minor changes.  Deep
trof over the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate
the weather through the end of the week, keeping the colder air over
the region.

Lighter winds today will become more northwesterly towards the end
of the day, bringing colder air into the region.  Whereas Friday
highs may reach into the upper 20s, this cold air will knock
Saturdays highs back down into the teens. Winds pick up a southerly
component for Sunday as the upper trof finally starts to shift
eastward as another storm system takes shape moving into the
Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the extent of the
snow, but with a diffuse area of lift moving into the region, the
snowfall totals are starting to take shape for potentially 2-3
inches across Central Illinois.  Majority of the snow will be in the
Sunday/Sunday night time frame, slowly wrapping up for the morning
commute on Monday. With this being a major pattern shift over the
country...expect changes to the details with this system.  So far,
the forecast is warming on the back side of the snow...so what snow
does fall, will likely be melting rather quickly into the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period with mid and high
clouds still prevailing into the early evening hours tomorrow.
Then a clipper system will move quickly toward the area and bring
lower cigs and some light snow, beginning at 03z at PIA, 04z at
SPI, and 05z at BMI and DEC. Will have cigs still at VFR levels
around 3.5kft but vis will drop to 5sm at PIA and SPI, and 6sm at
BMI and DEC. Snow will likely hold off til around or after 06z at
CMI. Winds will be light and variable overnight then become
northerly during the early morning til late afternoon. Then light
and variable again during the evening hours.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KLOT 110924
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-
BKN CI ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NWLY...THOUGH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO ARND 5KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO SWLY WHILE REMAINING ARND 5KT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 110924
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-
BKN CI ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NWLY...THOUGH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO ARND 5KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO SWLY WHILE REMAINING ARND 5KT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



000
FXUS63 KLOT 110924
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
315 AM CST

THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE FORECAST MESSAGE CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLE COLD AS THE
EMPHASIS...IN PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION...LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTER COUNTY INDIANA LOOK TO PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION
PROBABLE AND A CHANCE FOR BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. FINALLY...THE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON A MORE BROAD SNOW EVENT IN THE GENERAL
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING EMANATING FROM A
MODIFIED 1029MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES TO GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE FINALLY TEMPORARILY SHUTTING DOWN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THICKEN LATER ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUN. THE SUN AND FAR LESS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
FOUR TO FIVE DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS.

THE UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A
140KT JET PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING
USHERING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHEARED SHORT WAVE INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE DISPARITY
IN GUIDANCE EXISTS WITH THIS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT IS SO LOW
AMPLITUDE. FEEL THE EC IS JUST TOO FAR SOUTH AND THE NAM PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH BASED ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOW...SO
PREFERRING A MIDDLE ROUTE CLOSE TO THE GEM WHICH SEEMS TO OFTEN
HANDLE THESE LITTLE CLIPPERS FAIRLY WELL. THE SATURATION ACROSS
THE CWA IS AT A GOOD THERMAL PROFILE TO RATTLE OUT AT LEAST
FLURRIES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WI STATE LINE...BUT THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ONE HALF INCH PLUS ARE MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH IN SOME PARTS OF THE
SOUTH. THE TIMING WOULD INTERSECT THE MORNING COMMUTE SO SOME
MINIMAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY DESPITE A WARMER AIR MASS...AND MAY BE
REACHED PRIOR TO NOON BEFORE THE COLD SURGE ARRIVES.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
315 AM CST

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A LOBE OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO EASTERN
CANADA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO SUB 490DM IN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TUMBLE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOME PLACES NEAR
ZERO BY MIDNIGHT /WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH NO REAL SNOW
COVER/. FORECASTED WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL ASSIST IN
STEERING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10 TO 25 BELOW ZERO LIKELY PROMPTING
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTS A QUICK UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WHAT STILL SEEMS PART OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST FAVORED
DURATION AND GENERAL CONFLUENCE APPEARS POINTED TOWARD FAR SW MI.
SO PORTER COUNTY MAY DODGE THE HEAVIEST RATES BUT STILL BEING 48
HOURS OUT OR SO...TOUGH TO PIN DOWN FOR CERTAIN. CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY HIGHS POPS AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN PORTER
COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD EXTEND WILL INLAND TO NORTHERN
JASPER COUNTY.

AFTER A COLD SATURDAY WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STRUGGLING TO REACH
DOUBLE DIGITS...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN END OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM...WHICH IS PROJECTED TO PHASE WITH
SOME PACIFIC ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE GFS. THE 11.00 EC DID COME MORE IN LINE WITH
ITS NCEP COUNTERPART REGARDING THE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN REACH AND
ORIENTATION/DEPTH...WHILE THE GEM REMAINS MORE UNPHASED AND
PRODUCES LITTLE QPF. FEEL ENOUGH SIGNAL IS THERE WITH THE GFS AND
EC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TO INCREASE POPS WITH AT LEAST LIKELY LIGHT
SNOW FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INCREASED CHANCES EASTWARD. A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING OF THE SHORT WAVE IS PROJECTED
EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY THAT WOULD FAVOR DEEPER WARM ADVECTION
ASCENT AND TIGHTENED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER/NEAR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST TO
LIKELY PREVENT TOO HIGH OF A QPF EVENT...YET A POTENTIALLY DEEP
DENDRITIC ZONE AND HIGHER RATIOS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SEVERAL
INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. GIVEN THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ENERGY STILL
BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHIFTS
IN INTENSITY AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAYBE EVEN TRACK.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-
BKN CI ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NWLY...THOUGH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO ARND 5KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO SWLY WHILE REMAINING ARND 5KT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
245 AM CST

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOISTED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OPEN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY ALSO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEADING TO
DIMINISHING WINDS THAT BACK TO THE WEST.  A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE
LAKE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT...LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ACCUMULATING FREEZING SPRAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.  WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST
REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO 25 KT
BEHIND THE HIGH. A WEAK LOW PASSES OVER THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ777-LMZ779...3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 110540
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period with mid and high
clouds still prevailing into the early evening hours tomorrow.
Then a clipper system will move quickly toward the area and bring
lower cigs and some light snow, beginning at 03z at PIA, 04z at
SPI, and 05z at BMI and DEC. Will have cigs still at VFR levels
around 3.5kft but vis will drop to 5sm at PIA and SPI, and 6sm at
BMI and DEC. Snow will likely hold off til around or after 06z at
CMI. Winds will be light and variable overnight then become
northerly during the early morning til late afternoon. Then light
and variable again during the evening hours.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 110540
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period with mid and high
clouds still prevailing into the early evening hours tomorrow.
Then a clipper system will move quickly toward the area and bring
lower cigs and some light snow, beginning at 03z at PIA, 04z at
SPI, and 05z at BMI and DEC. Will have cigs still at VFR levels
around 3.5kft but vis will drop to 5sm at PIA and SPI, and 6sm at
BMI and DEC. Snow will likely hold off til around or after 06z at
CMI. Winds will be light and variable overnight then become
northerly during the early morning til late afternoon. Then light
and variable again during the evening hours.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 110540
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail most of the period with mid and high
clouds still prevailing into the early evening hours tomorrow.
Then a clipper system will move quickly toward the area and bring
lower cigs and some light snow, beginning at 03z at PIA, 04z at
SPI, and 05z at BMI and DEC. Will have cigs still at VFR levels
around 3.5kft but vis will drop to 5sm at PIA and SPI, and 6sm at
BMI and DEC. Snow will likely hold off til around or after 06z at
CMI. Winds will be light and variable overnight then become
northerly during the early morning til late afternoon. Then light
and variable again during the evening hours.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



000
FXUS63 KLOT 110408
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
901 PM CST

SKIES HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO THIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY EROSION TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL STRETCHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC. FURTHER
UPSTREAM THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL VORT THAT WAS SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL WISC/NORTHEAST IA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WLL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK THUR AND
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRI
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LASALLE TO WAUKEGAN LINE WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DIP FURTHER TO -10
TO -15 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-
BKN CI ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NWLY...THOUGH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO ARND 5KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO SWLY WHILE REMAINING ARND 5KT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 110408
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
901 PM CST

SKIES HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO THIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY EROSION TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL STRETCHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC. FURTHER
UPSTREAM THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL VORT THAT WAS SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL WISC/NORTHEAST IA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WLL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK THUR AND
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRI
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LASALLE TO WAUKEGAN LINE WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DIP FURTHER TO -10
TO -15 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE SCT-
BKN CI ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW...GENERALLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY NWLY...THOUGH
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW TO ARND 5KT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO SWLY WHILE REMAINING ARND 5KT.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 110310
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
901 PM CST

SKIES HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO THIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY EROSION TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL STRETCHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC. FURTHER
UPSTREAM THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL VORT THAT WAS SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL WISC/NORTHEAST IA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WLL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK THUR AND
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRI
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LASALLE TO WAUKEGAN LINE WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DIP FURTHER TO -10
TO -15 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE BKN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL CANADA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND
EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. ENHANCED FORCING
UNDER THE UPPER JET STREAM IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OF THE SNOW TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT
RFD...LET ALONE THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 110310
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
901 PM CST

SKIES HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TO THIN THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY EROSION TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL STRETCHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISC. FURTHER
UPSTREAM THERE IS A WEAK MID-LVL VORT THAT WAS SPREADING SOME
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL WISC/NORTHEAST IA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WLL REMAIN POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...HOWEVER WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH BY DAYBREAK THUR AND
CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY FRI
AFTN/EVE. TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO. WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LASALLE TO WAUKEGAN LINE WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DIP FURTHER TO -10
TO -15 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE BKN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL CANADA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND
EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. ENHANCED FORCING
UNDER THE UPPER JET STREAM IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OF THE SNOW TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT
RFD...LET ALONE THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 110304
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



000
FXUS63 KILX 110304
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 110304
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Broken clouds still cover the area tonight and based on satellite
trends, looks like they will continue during the overnight hours.
However, some clearing is occurring in the northeast. So will be
making some adjustments to cloud cover remainder of the night as
models still forecast the band of clouds sliding south some
overnight. With clouds staying over the area in most areas, will
make some minor adjustments to the low temps in the south and
southeast. Update will be out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KLOT 102333
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
533 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE BKN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL CANADA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND
EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. ENHANCED FORCING
UNDER THE UPPER JET STREAM IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OF THE SNOW TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT
RFD...LET ALONE THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 102333
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
533 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL MAINLY BE BKN CI
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET DIVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL CANADA TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...AND
EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. ENHANCED FORCING
UNDER THE UPPER JET STREAM IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OF THE SNOW TO BE ABLE TO SPREAD EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT
RFD...LET ALONE THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



000
FXUS63 KILX 102326
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten



000
FXUS63 KILX 102326
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 102326
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail next 24hrs at all TAF sites. Mid
clouds over the area will eventually rotate south across the area
with PIA and BMI scattering out first around midnight, followed
by CMI later overnight, and then DEC and SPI early tomorrow
morning. This will be just high cirrus and should last through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will become light and variable early
this evening as high pressure ridge through the area. Then
overnight, winds will become northerly but speeds will remain less
than 10kts through the remainder of the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Auten




000
FXUS63 KILX 102055
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KILX 102055
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KILX 102055
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KILX 102055
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1011mb low over eastern Nebraska,
with frontal boundary extending southeastward into central Missouri.
Light to moderate snow has developed ahead of this feature from
central/southern Iowa into northeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois.  Latest radar imagery and surface obs show snow currently
falling along and southwest of a Macomb to Litchfield line.
Accumulations have thus far been quite light, with a few reports of
as much as half an inch in Greene County just south of Winchester.
Trajectory of radar echoes suggests the snow will skirt along the
southwest periphery of the KILX CWA late this afternoon through
evening before tapering off and coming to an end by midnight.  Have
adjusted PoPs to confine snow chances to along/south of a
Rushville..to Taylorville...to Olney line this evening.  Snow totals
will only amount to a couple tenths of an inch...with the heaviest
axis remaining further southwest from the St. Louis metro into
southern Illinois.  Further north across the remainder of the area,
cold and dry weather will prevail.  Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the single digits, with a few teens across the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

The long wave trough in the eastern half of the CONUS will remain
through the weekend, with a couple of shortwaves triggering light
snow through next Monday. The primary periods of potential for snow
accumulation still look to be on Friday, and again on Sunday into
Monday. The below normal temperatures will remain in place until
early next week, when the upper ridge in the west shifts east into
Illinois, and surface temps are able to return above normal for mid-
week next week.

Thursday will start out with morning clouds south of I-72 as the
overnight weather disturbance and light snow depart to the
southeast. Sunshine is expected to develop for a majority of the day
across central and southeast IL. Despite the sunshine, high temps
will be limited to the lower 20s due to 850mb temps in the -8C to
-12C range.

Clouds will return quickly Thursday evening as a fast moving
shortwave brings a period of snow. The focus for precip looks to be
between midnight Thurs night and Noon on Friday, per the GFS, NAM
and Canadian GEM. The ECMWF dissipates the energy as the wave
reaches IL, producing little to no precip in our CWA. Will
continue with the consensus group for snow chances and light accum
less than one inch. NW winds will increase Friday afternoon as
another surge of Arctic air arrives, blowing around any light snow
that falls the previous 12 hours. Friday night lows will bottom
out in the single digits in our CWA, with steady NW winds through
the night. Wind chill values will approach advisory levels of -15F
for areas north of Peoria to Bloomington late Friday night and Sat
morning.

That Arctic surge will make Saturday our coldest day of the next
week, with highs only in the teens, and wind chills barely climbing
above zero by afternoon.

Varying model solutions for the next system for Sunday into Monday
has kept confidence low enough to prevent boosting PoPs into the
likely category. The ECMWF appears to be splitting the wave of
energy as it reaches Illinois, with little to no precip/snow accum
in our CWA. The GFS goes to the other end of the spectrum, producing
a surface low/surface circulation in north central IL as the upper
wave passes across IL. The NAM and Canadian are middle of the road,
with no distinct surface low, but they do produce some light snow in
our CWA with the shortwave. Keeping QPF on the lower end of the
compromise, we still could see a range of 1 to 3 inches of snow
across our forecast area. Upper end GFS numbers try to show
potential of 3-5" depending on snow ratios and snow algorithms.
Localized bands of snow could set up in an east-west orientation for
extended periods of time as the wave passes from west to east, if
the GFS solution verifies. WPC is showing 30% chance of 0.25" QPF in
the southern half of Illinois, which would support snow totals
toward the 3" amounts. Have kept our total QPF amounts between 0.14"
and 0.27", with snow amounts in the 1.8" to 2.8" range during the
Sunday into Monday morning 30 hour window. Obviously, confidence is
low, so as mentioned previously, PoPs were left in the higher end
Chance category, as indicated by the blended initialization.

Beyond that system, the longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS
appears to shift east allowing the ridge in the western states to
progress into Illinois for Tues-Wed. Slight chances of rain/snow
were kept in the extended forecast from Mon night through Tues night
due to the ECMWF deepening a low SE of IL Monday night, and then the
GFS/ECMWF bringing a clipper north of our CWA Tues night. At least
high temps are forecast to climb into the upper 30s and low 40s Tues
and Wed, providing some relief from the recent period of cold
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KLOT 102048
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
248 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

248 PM...ONLY CONCERN IS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM MN SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY TURN EASTERLY AS IT BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. CURRENT WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
IA INTO SOUTHWEST IL WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. WEST/
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT WITH MINOR NEW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW
ZERO. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALLOW WIND
CHILL VALUES 10 BELOW ZERO. CMS

&&

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

248 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING
AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURGE...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW
FAR NORTH THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT AS TRENDS EMERGE...
HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED DESPITE THE LOW QPF EXPECTED. TEMPS ALSO
APPEAR TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY OR PERHAPS
AN EVENING LOW THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL WITH LOWS LIKELY BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST IL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY LOW SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS PERHAPS INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS AND THEN A SHARP
DROP SATURDAY EVENING IS POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES WHICH MAY THEN KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY RISE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS...TEMPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE IN A WEAKENING
PHASE AS IT ARRIVES. SO WHILE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON QPF AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S SUNDAY
AND THEN MAY REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR GENERALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS
BACK INTO THE REGION THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. AREA OF THIN OVERCAST STRATUS THAT
WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SCT-BKN THIS HOUR AND EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL INCH TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM
     THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KLOT 102004
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
204 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
331 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE MESSAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS
SIMPLY UNSEASONABLY COLD. EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY DIP TO SUBZERO IN
OUTLYING LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FOR THE MOST PART WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE OUR CRITERIA OF ADVISORY /WHICH IS AOB
-15F/...THOUGH COULD DIP TO THAT LEVEL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR SNOW CHANCES EXIST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THOUGH CONTINUING TO SEE A TREND FOR PART OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
IS FINALLY SHIFTING ITS WAY EASTWARD. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD PATTERN IN PLACE THOUGH WITH A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAVING SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE MIXED
LAYER WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C.
THIS PROFILE AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY LOOK TO SUPPORT
MID TEENS FOR HIGHS. THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY IS CHALLENGING
AS OFTEN CAN BE THE CASE AT THE PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING CYCLONIC
FLOW. EXPECT THAT EARLY MORNING HOLES WILL FILL IN DURING MIDDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES. DRY ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
DEW POINTS TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW ZERO INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THESE SHOULD ADVECT
AWAY TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND A LIGHT BUT FRESH
SNOW IN PLACES...THE CLEAR NIGHT WILL SEE LOWER TO MID SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN THE
USUAL COLDER SPOTS.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
331 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY
SUNNY AND ASSISTING IN A WEE BIT OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHEARED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS BASICALLY RIDING THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE SIMILAR TO A SYSTEM TODAY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
CONTINUE TO THINK MOST SNOW WITH THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY THOUGH AND MAYBE ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
FOR SOME FLURRIES.

THAT SHORT WAVE AND JET WITH REINFORCE THE COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SETS UP THE COLD WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE AGAIN SOME FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN WITH THIS...MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS LIKELY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH A
DEEP LOW FAVORED OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A 1040MB+ HIGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM THE GFS ARE OVER 10000
FT...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE DRY ENOUGH THAT COVERAGE OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN SINGLE BAND/S/. TOO EARLY YET TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE VERY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE OR EVEN IF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A PACIFIC/CLIPPER HYBRID SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GENERAL REGION SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AND IT CERTAINLY COULD
SLOW TOO. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN THE COLD AIR IN ADVANCE
LOOKS LIKE THE PROFILES SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOW
MUCH IF ANY SNOW THOUGH WILL DEPEND ON ITS EXACT TRACK WHICH COULD
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY YET FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. AREA OF THIN OVERCAST STRATUS THAT
WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SCT-BKN THIS HOUR AND EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL INCH TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
202 PM CST

A MODERATELY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WINDS OF 30 KT AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE INTO SOME OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
INCHES EAST ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS ALSO BACK TO THE
WEST ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN
FRESHEN UP AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT AND AS A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF NORTHERLY GALES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 101753
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes



000
FXUS63 KILX 101753
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KILX 101753
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period.
High clouds have spread across all of central Illinois late this
morning in advance of a fast-moving storm system tracking
southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This feature will
remain largely west and south of the area: however, lower
ceilings and perhaps a period of very light snow is expected at
KSPI later today. Based on 12z NAM forecast soundings and latest
satellite/radar loops...have decreased ceilings to 3500ft and
introduced VCSH at KSPI between 23z and 06z. Once the system
passes by to the south, mid-level cloud deck will gradually
dissipate late tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will remain
light, generally from the W/NW at 10kt or less.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes




000
FXUS63 KLOT 101732
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1132 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
331 AM CST

THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE MESSAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND IS
SIMPLY UNSEASONABLY COLD. EARLY MORNING LOWS MAY DIP TO SUBZERO IN
OUTLYING LOCATIONS THURSDAY MORNING THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS FOR THE MOST PART WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE OUR CRITERIA OF ADVISORY /WHICH IS AOB
-15F/...THOUGH COULD DIP TO THAT LEVEL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR SNOW CHANCES EXIST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THOUGH CONTINUING TO SEE A TREND FOR PART OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
IS FINALLY SHIFTING ITS WAY EASTWARD. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD PATTERN IN PLACE THOUGH WITH A
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAVING SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE MIXED
LAYER WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C.
THIS PROFILE AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY LOOK TO SUPPORT
MID TEENS FOR HIGHS. THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY IS CHALLENGING
AS OFTEN CAN BE THE CASE AT THE PERIPHERY OF DEPARTING CYCLONIC
FLOW. EXPECT THAT EARLY MORNING HOLES WILL FILL IN DURING MIDDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES. DRY ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT
DEW POINTS TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW ZERO INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...SO THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THIN. THESE SHOULD ADVECT
AWAY TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND A LIGHT BUT FRESH
SNOW IN PLACES...THE CLEAR NIGHT WILL SEE LOWER TO MID SINGLE
DIGITS IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SUBZERO LOWS POSSIBLE IN THE
USUAL COLDER SPOTS.

MTF

&&

.LONG TERM...
331 AM CST

THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF THURSDAY LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY
SUNNY AND ASSISTING IN A WEE BIT OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHEARED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS BASICALLY RIDING THE ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE SIMILAR TO A SYSTEM TODAY OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
CONTINUE TO THINK MOST SNOW WITH THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE CLOUDY THOUGH AND MAYBE ENOUGH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
FOR SOME FLURRIES.

THAT SHORT WAVE AND JET WITH REINFORCE THE COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SETS UP THE COLD WEEKEND PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE AGAIN SOME FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN WITH THIS...MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS LIKELY TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY WITH A
DEEP LOW FAVORED OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A 1040MB+ HIGH TO THE
WEST. FORECAST EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM THE GFS ARE OVER 10000
FT...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE DRY ENOUGH THAT COVERAGE OF ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE IN SINGLE BAND/S/. TOO EARLY YET TO
TELL IF THERE WILL BE VERY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE OR EVEN IF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTER
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A PACIFIC/CLIPPER HYBRID SYSTEM
CROSSING THE GENERAL REGION SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AND IT CERTAINLY COULD
SLOW TOO. EVEN IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN THE COLD AIR IN ADVANCE
LOOKS LIKE THE PROFILES SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOW
MUCH IF ANY SNOW THOUGH WILL DEPEND ON ITS EXACT TRACK WHICH COULD
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY YET FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

MTF

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. AREA OF THIN OVERCAST STRATUS THAT
WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS BECOME SCT-BKN THIS HOUR AND EXPECT
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE LOWER TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL INCH TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
309 AM CST

A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED SO WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING CONTINUE. EXTENDED EACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY 6 HOURS AS
HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW
SHIFTS EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THE HIGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME WEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW FORMS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE LAKE FRIDAY. WINDS
BECOME NORTH TO 30 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME A LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...AND REACHES THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WEAKEN UNDER THE HIGH AND THEN BECOME
SOUTH 15-25 KT SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

JEE

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




000
FXUS63 KILX 101643
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions across central IL terminals this morning. Meanwhile
a system moving toward southern IL from the northern Plains will
spread lowering ceilings into the area during the late afternoon
and evening as well as a chance for MVFR ceilings and visibilities
in snow showers from around Springfield south/west. Winds WNW 8-10
kts through much of the afternoon...decreasing and generally
shifting more northerly after 23Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




000
FXUS63 KILX 101643
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

16z/10am surface map shows 1012mb low over South Dakota, with
light to moderate snow developing southeastward across the western
half of Iowa into northern Missouri. Trajectory of low remains on
track from previous forecasts, with the majority of the snow
staying west and south of the KILX CWA this afternoon and evening.
Based on 12z model data and latest satellite/radar loops, have
made very few changes to the going forecast. Will maintain low
chance PoPs along/southwest of a Rushville to Taylorville line by
mid to late afternoon. Could see a dusting of snow around
Winchester in Scott County, but the higher snow totals will remain
focused further southwest toward the St. Louis metro area. No
major forecast updates planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A deep long-wave trough over the eastern half of the country with
strong upper level northwesterly flow from the northern plains into
the southeastern U.S. is in place this morning. Central and
southeast Illinois is entrenched with a cold air mass characterized
by temperatures falling into the single digits early this
morning...and wind chills as low as -6 degrees with 10 to 15 mph NW
winds continuing. Wind chills should continue to drop reaching -5 to
-10 most areas until mid-morning. A clipper system over North Dakota
early this morning will move rapidly into eastern Missouri and
southwestern Illinois this afternoon into evening. While most of the
precipitation associated with this feature will remain southwest of
the central Illinois forecast area...a slight chance for snow will
spread as far northeast as Springfield this afternoon and
evening...with little or no accumulation expected in the area. As a
surface high pressure ridge will edge over central IL to the east of
the clipper...WNW winds will steadily decrease to around 10 mph or
less today. Cold temperatures will continue today...with little
change from yesterday. Highs should reach from the upper teens along
the I-74 corridor to the low 20s through Jacksonville-Springfield-
Effingham-Lawrenceville.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

Forecast only a matter of small adjustments overall.  Deep trof over
the eastern half of the country will continue to dominate the
weather through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Northwesterly flow over the region will result in a series of short
waves moving through and bringing occasional snow chances off and on
through the end of the week...as well as very cold air. Timing of
the waves is going to be the main forecast issue for the next few
runs.

Lighter winds at the surface, but the temperatures will remain well
below freezing into the weekend.  Thursday night/Friday has a fast
moving wave in the models possibly bringing a quick bit of
snow...with little accumulation expected.  But behind this wave,
more cold air.  Whereas Friday highs may reach into the upper 20s,
this cold air will knock Saturdays highs back down into the teens.
Winds pick up a southerly component for Sunday as the upper trof
finally starts to shift eastward as another storm system takes shape
moving into the Midwest.  There is still some disagreement with the
extent of the snow, with questionable moisture content, as the cold
air mass does not have much time to modify before the wave arrives.
For now, keeping the snow chance pops in there, but not willing to
go too high with qpf just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR conditions across central IL terminals this morning. Meanwhile
a system moving toward southern IL from the northern Plains will
spread lowering ceilings into the area during the late afternoon
and evening as well as a chance for MVFR ceilings and visibilities
in snow showers from around Springfield south/west. Winds WNW 8-10
kts through much of the afternoon...decreasing and generally
shifting more northerly after 23Z.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Onton




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities